The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Lord of the Rings Commanders

June 17, 2023 by Kyle Massa

Art by Magali Villeneuve

You Shall Be The Fellowship of The Cards

Hope you've had your second breakfast, reader. We're in for a long one.

In the Over/Under series, we predict the popularity of new commanders. If we think a commander will lead more than 1200 decks, it gets an "Over," or an "Under" for fewer. One year from the release date, we'll check our work. There's also a Can't-Miss Pick each set, which is like a lock in betting. If I sound terse in my evaluations for this article, it's because we have 85 commanders to cover (WTF, Wizards?).

Let's begin our quest with...

Bill the Pony

Though Bill offers some cute synergies, commanders like Arcades, the Strategist already do this effect better. No wonder the Fellowship sent him home early.

My prediction: Under

Boromir, Warden of the Tower

Fitting that a character played by Sean Bean does his best work by dying. The free-spell counter clause is also good, but not good enough to make Boromir anything more than Selfless Spirit.

My prediction: Under

Éowyn, Lady of Rohan

With the slew of quality Equipment commanders of late, I think there's simply too much competition for Éowyn here. No wonder Aragorn friend-zoned her.

My prediction: Under

Faramir, Field Commander

Faramir would have higher quality as an Aristocrats commander if he was touching black. In mono-white, consistent sacrifices are too hard to orchestrate.

My prediction: Under

Frodo, Determined Hero

Auto-equipping Blackblade Reforged is fun... but is it good enough to be your commander?

My determination: Under

Gandalf the White

This is basically a better version of Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines, and Elesh already commands 3557 decks.

My prediction: Over

Gandalf, White Rider

Gandalf should've had Phasing, because his defining characteristic is disappearing at inopportune times (especially in The Hobbit). Instead, Gandalf, White Rider supports go-wide Storm, which isn't really a thing, and probably won't become one.

My prediction: Under

Landroval, Horizon Witness

Why didn't the Fellowship fly eagles into Mordor? Because they didn't have two or more attackers. Seriously though, this card is common power-level.

My prediction: Under

Rosie Cotton of South Lane

I hope the hobbit children in this picture tip well, because I don't think Rosie's getting much more work. While a counter per token is nice, it's not nearly enough to earn 1200 decks.

My prediction: Under

Samwise the Stouthearted

I'm glad there are multiple versions of every character, because this isn't the Sam we need.

My prediction: Under

Saradoc, Master of Buckland

I just re-read the books and I still can't remember this character. Whoever he is, he's a decent go-wide enabler, though getting a high-powered attacker with lifelink isn't much of a payoff.

My prediction: Under

Bill Ferny, Bree Swindler

I have four words for you: mono-blue Horse tribal.

My prediction: Under

Elrond, Lord of Rivendell

I'm not tempted by the scrying (or the Tempting).

My prediction: Under

Gandalf, Friend of the Shire

Casting sorceries at instant speed is a niche benefit, and drawing a card per Tempt is whatever.

My prediction: Under

Goldberry, River-Daughter

Mrs. Bombadil is capable of some zany stuff. A few examples:

Repeat- or turbo-triggering Sagas
Redistributing loyalty amongst planeswalkers
Reducing Cumulative Upkeep costs

Is any of this impactful? Not sure. But it is fun, and I'm sure there are far more applications.

My prediction: Over

Ioreth of the Healing House

Picture this: you copy Ioreth with Sakashima of a Thousand Faces, then pull Reveka, Wizard Savant out of your shoe box to deal infinite damage. I'm sold.

My prediction: Over

Meneldor, Swift Savior

It's like Brago, King Eternal, only worse.

My prediction: Under

Saruman the White

Love the flavor, but Amass isn't the most exciting build-around mechanic. RIP Christopher Lee.

My prediction: Under

The Watcher in the Water

How the heck do you consistently draw cards on opponents' turns? Consecrated Sphinx, Mind's Eye, and Faerie Mastermind are all I can come up with. Without them, The Watcher just watches. I suppose you could sacrifice a bunch of Changelings, but that hardly seems feasible.

My prediction: Under

Gollum, Patient Plotter

Love the creature type, hate the rest. Could be interesting in an Aristocrats shell, but otherwise, I’m off it.

My prediction: Under

Gollum, Scheming Guide

This card will add a solid 10 minutes to most EDH games while people mull over whether or not they're being bamboozled. Still, it's such a unique mini-game that I think it'll earn quite a few fans.

My prediction: Over

Gorbag of Minas Morgul

Gorbag has always been my favorite orc, solely because of his name (Shagrat is a close second). Unfortunately, I don't think he'll earn the same respect from the EDH community. Mono-black sac Goblins/Orcs seems like a tough sell.

My prediction: Under

Gothmog, Morgul Lieutenant

This Gothmog is way better-looking than the one in the movies. However, he's not much a commander, since deathtouch is more annoying than impactful.

My prediction: Under

Gríma Wormtongue

Pro tip: don't hire a guy named "Wormtongue" to be your advisor—or commander, for that matter.

My prediction: Under

Lobelia Sackville-Baggins

Another flavor hit that can be plenty powerful under the right circumstances. If only those circumstances weren't so narrow.

My prediction: Under

Sauron, the Necromancer

The mana value, color, stats, and effect all remind me of Drana, the Last Bloodchief, a card which leads a paltry 212 decks.

My prediction: Under

Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin

How does the Witch-king feel about gender reveal parties? Do the words "It's a girl!" make him fear for his life?

I suppose we'll never know. All I know is, this is an understatted, overcosted Wraith that does nothing when it enters the battlefield.

My prediction: Under

Witch-king of Angmar

This version of the Witch-king deters aggression, encourages temptation, and even sticks around with an indestructible trigger. Much better.

My prediction: Over

Éomer, Marshal of Rohan

If you want this effect, you're already running Aurelia, the Warleader.

My prediction: Under

Éomer of the Riddermark

Risking your fatty in combat just to create a 1/1 is nobody's idea of fun.

My prediction: Under

Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold

Designed for Draft, and not especially good there, either. P.S. Where the F was Gondor when the Westfold fell?

My prediction: Under

Gimli, Counter of Kills

If your Aristocrats opponents are paying zero attention to your side of the board, this card's great. Otherwise, it's vastly underpowered.

My prediction: Under

Glóin, Dwarf Emissary

Treasure and goad are basically evergreen at this point, so combining them seems like a recipe for success. Plus, with Erratic Portal, Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh, and Purphoros, God of the Forge, you've got an insta-win.

My prediction: Over

Grishnákh, Brash Instigator

Players like Threaten effects, but do they like them enough to play a three-mana 1/1 that's only good with extra Amass support? I think not.

My prediction: Under

Celeborn the Wise

The closest comparison I can think of is Eligeth, Crossroads Augur, who leads a respectable 2616 decks. However, those are Partner decks, which I suspect is padding the stats. Also, scrying is far more plentiful in blue than green.

My prediction: Under

Elanor Gardner

This is excellent flavor, but ramp has diminishing returns in the late game.

My prediction: Under

Fangorn, Tree Shepherd

Seven mana is expensive, but the payoff is undeniably sweet, especially if you've built out a board of big Ents—I mean, Treefolk. Whenever I cast this, I'll be saying, "Break the dam...release the river!" And I will not be apologizing.

My prediction: Over

Galadriel, Gift-Giver

Gimli wanted a single golden hair, but these options are much better.

My prediction: Over

Glorfindel, Dauntless Rescuer

What is this, 2003? Power creep laughs at this card.

My prediction: Under

Legolas, Master Archer

A neat little build-around, especially with cantrips, auras, and counter synergies. You have my bow.

My prediction: Over

Meriadoc Brandybuck

Sean Bean died for this guy?

My prediction: Under

Peregrin Took

Turning Food into cards for zero mana is delicious, especially with this set's plentiful Food synergies.

My prediction: Over

Quickbeam, Upstart Ent

Raw stats rarely pull big numbers, even for Ents.

My prediction: Under

Radagast the Brown

Reminds me of Volo, Guide to Monsters (and not just because it's from a non-Magic IP). Should lead to some interesting deckbuilding, not to mention copious card-drawing.

My prediction: Over

Faramir, Prince of Ithilien

Three tokens is a lot, and a free card ain't bad, either. His dad might loath him, but the locals adore him. I suspect EDH players will, too.

My prediction: Over

Gwaihir the Windlord

Giving vigilance to Birds is like giving a book to an Orc—there's very little upside.

My prediction: Under

Pippin, Guard of the Citadel

Pippin annoys Gandalf, and he'll annoy your opponents, too. I call that good flavor. Sure, he's a lightning rod for removal, but at two mana, he's easy to re-cast (and re-annoy).

My prediction: Over

Prince Imrahil the Fair

No wonder they cut this guy from the movies.

My prediction: Under

Sharkey, Tyrant of the Shire

Sharkey's usefulness is directly proportional to the ruthlessness of your opponents; if they run Strip Mine, they're getting Strip Mined. Still, after browsing EDHREC's top Utility Lands, I'm not seeing anything particularly broken.

My prediction: Under

The Mouth of Sauron

Way too conditional—and mouthy.

My prediction: Under

Mauhúr, Uruk-hai Captain

Clearly an Amass payoff, but I doubt the mechanic will gain upwards of 1200 fans (unless you really like eating Man’s-flesh).

My prediction: Under

Sauron, the Lidless Eye

A little underwhelming for the Dark Lord himself, but still plenty powerful, especially with free sac outlets. I just hope he packed eye drops.

My prediction: Over

Shagrat, Loot Bearer

I'm still not sold on Amass, but players dig Equipment, and this is one of the few commanders who supports that theme in Rakdos.

My prediction: Over

The Balrog, Durin's Bane

With Ashnod's Altar and/or fetch lands, you can fairly easily cast this guy for two mana. From there, you get a hasty, hard-to-block attacker that takes only three swings to kill via commander damage, plus a legit death trigger.

My prediction: Over

The Balrog, Flame of Udûn

A five-mana 7/7 trampler? Yes. Easily tucked if an opposing commander/ringbearer dies? Heck no.

My prediction: Under

Uglúk of the White Hand

Uglúk's banner is about the size of a napkin, and I don't think his following will be much larger.

My prediction: Under

Gimli, Mournful Avenger

Gruul Aristocrats isn't exactly a name-brand archetype, so this might be a cool way to jumpstart it. Three's a lot, but when you can kill almost any creature for free, it's worth it.

My prediction: Over

Strider, Ranger of the North

Don't worry—there are better versions of Aragorn in this set.

My prediction: Under

Aragorn and Arwen, Wed

If you got an invite to the wedding, I hope you spell their name right on the check. Other than that, I've got no concerns for this happy couple. They're a clean and powerful Selesnya pair that should be easy and fun to build around.

My prediction: Over

Aragorn, Company Leader

A unique commander that gets out of control with Proliferate, ability counters, Modified bonuses, and so much more. Viggo Mortensen would approve.

My prediction: Over

Arwen, Mortal Queen

Exchanging indestructible for lifelink and a counter seems fiddly at best. Liv Tyler would not approve.

My prediction: Under

Butterbur, Bree Innkeeper

Butterbur provides consistent—yet never outstanding—service. I give him 2.5 stars on Yelp.

My prediction: Under

Frodo Baggins

Because when you have a 1/3, you really want people to block it.

My prediction: Under

Samwise Gamgee

Samwise Gamgee, Childcare Provider is similar to Peregrin Took, yet I'd rather draw a card than return a Historic card. Still, I think he's just useful enough to earn 1200 fans.

My prediction: Over

Denethor, Ruling Steward

Don't let him near the cherry tomatoes.

My prediction: Under

Frodo, Sauron's Bane

There never was much hope of this card actually one-shotting someone. Just a fool's hope.

My prediction: Under

King of the Oathbreakers

A compelling alternative to Millicent, Restless Revenant for Spirit tribal enthusiasts. Just don't send your ghost army home before the war's actually over.

My prediction: Over

Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff

This guy needs to learn to spell. Still, he's potent with stuff like Marionette Master, Disciple of the Vault, and Bennie Bracks, Zoologist.

My prediction: Over

Bilbo, Retired Burglar

The Ring might tempt me, but Bilbo doesn't.

My prediction: Under

Gandalf the Grey

You'll want to pack some blink effects to reset this value machine. Just keep him away from narrow bridges.

My prediction: Over

Old Man Willow

This tree is great at killing hobbits, which is about the only compliment I can give it.

My prediction: Under

Shelob, Child of Ungoliant

Instantly the best Spider tribal commander we've ever had. I was hoping there'd be an Ungoliant card so I could say "Shelob's mom has got it goin' on," but I guess this will have to do.

My prediction: Over (Can't Miss Pick!)

Sméagol, Helpful Guide

We be nice to them if they be nice to us! Problem is, Ring-tempting and land-sealing aren't nice enough to earn 1200.

My prediction: Under

Éowyn, Fearless Knight

If you've built a big enough board of legends, Éowyn feels like she'll end her fair share of games.

My prediction: Over

Merry, Esquire of Rohan

I never thought I'd say this, but there are better ways to draw cards in Boros.

My prediction: Under

Shadowfax, Lord of Horses

The inside joke alone is worth the Over.

My prediction: Over

Théoden, King of Rohan

Théoden delivers a great speech, but he's not much an EDH commander.

My prediction: Under

Arwen Undómiel

Scry tribal seems unlikely to gain popularity, no matter how much they're pushing it in this set.

My prediction: Under

Elrond, Master of Healing

This is better, but still doesn't strike me as popular. I don't want to play Augury Owl. Do you?

My prediction: Under

Galadriel of Lothlórien

I'm telling you, it's not happening—even if you get to ramp!

My prediction: Under

Legolas, Counter of Kills

See above.

My prediction: Under

Saruman of Many Colors

I had to read this card roughly 10 times to fully understand it. Now that I do, I'm in.

My prediction: Over

Sauron, the Dark Lord

I'm not into Amass, but when you get it for free, plus Tempting, plus card draw, it's tough to say no.

My prediction: Over

Aragorn, the Uniter

Four-color commanders are rare, and this one is especially sweet. He just couldn't wait to be king.

My prediction: Over

Tom Bombadil

They cut him from the movie, but few will cut him from their decks.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (29)

Under (55)

Can't-Miss Pick

Shelob, Child of Ungoliant

If you made it this far, you've made it through the longest Over/Under article of all time.

...And we're not even done yet! Come back for the Commander product commanders next.

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.

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