(Ash, Party Crasher | Art by Jason Rainville)

Let's Get Wild

This fairy tale is over...and under.

In this edition of The Over/Under (the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become), we'll be reviewing one of the coolest sets of 2023, Wilds of Eldraine. For each commander, I guessed whether they'd have over or under 1200 decks in one year's time, a.k.a. now. So let's check my work. You'll find last year's article in full here, but don't feel obligated to re-read, since I'll be referencing the finer points throughout.

Overall Impressions

As has become tradition, here are the overall stats on this set:

• Total number of commanders: 31
• Total number of commander decks: 88,887
• Average commander deck count: 2,867
• Most decks: Eriette of the Charmed Apple (11,543 decks)
• Fewest decks: Syr Armont, the Redeemer (47 decks)

Full disclosure: This was one of my favorite sets of the past few years. Between the returning fairy tale motifs, the fun new commanders, and the zany carnivorous pastries, there was a lot to love. I mean...The Goose Mother? On what other plane would you find such a magnificent creature?

Despite only having two decks, the Commander product commanders were quite popular. We already knew Faeries were popular, but the two Role-based commanders, Ellivere of the Wild Court and Gylwain, Casting Director, both performed fairly well, despite introducing a new (and somewhat controversial) mechanic.

Roles were, by the way, probably the loudest mechanic from this set. Celebration was a bit of a dud for EDH, while Food and Adventures were about as popular as they've always been. Rat kindred also fared fairly well, as evidenced by the solid performance of Totentanz, Swarm Piper. Otherwise, the new mechanics were tame.

That, however, isn't a criticism. Overall, I think one of the set's boons was its hidden intricacy. Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth, for example, was a set I believe had a little too much going on. I mean, more than 100 commanders feels excessive. By contrast, WOE offered just 31 commanders, with most of them being clean, elegant designs. (Agatha of the Vile Cauldron is an exception—I still don't understand all the combos with that card.)

Anyhoo, now that I've sung the set's praises, let's examine a few individual commanders.

My Solid Selections

We'll begin this section with a true artist:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 6,786

I clicked on this dude's commander page expecting to see ETBs and populate. That is, after all, what I was predicting last year:

"This effect works particularly well with powerful ETB triggers (of which there are many in this color combo), plus you can build your candy army with populate. Definitely a future finalist for The Great British Bake Off."

Probably should've changed that to The Great Eldrainian Bakeoff, but whatever. My point is, Brenard has a primary purpose I totally missed: Golems!

You'll notice that seven of his 10 High Synergy cards are Splicers of some sort, which create Golem tokens and power them up. And you know who else creates Golems? The great Eldrainian Baker himself! I feel silly I didn't notice it earlier, but I was fixated on the Food.

Next up...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,743

Though not as wildly popular as our previous commander, this gingerbread knight did pretty darn well for himself. Here's what I predicted last year:

"[Syr Ginger is] great with Food tokens, Treasure tokens, Clue tokens, Spellbombs, and so many other utility artifacts."

There's a little of that stuff in these decks, but most players seem more interested in looping nontoken artifacts using Scrap Trawler and Myr Retriever, which sounds fun to me. I might just have to try this one.

...And maybe this next one, too.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 7,920

Here's how last year's analysis began:

"Unlike most cards these days, Hylda's design doesn't enable her own payoff. Still, that's allowed R&D to make the payoffs especially powerful—particularly the second one."

That second ability really is powerful. In fact, I'm glad they gated it with a mana, otherwise Opposition and Court Street Denizen would tap down all your opponents' creatures and create an Elemental token for each one. I'm glad Hylda's good—just not that good.

Next, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the set's most popular commander.

Last year's prediction: Can't-Miss Pick

Final deck count: 11,543

Yeah, that's a lot of decks. In fact, that ranks Eriette at #52 overall, which is excellent considering the overwhelming number of commanders we have these days. Here's what I thought of her last year:

"Though black-white enchantments has been a thing, we've never seen it quite like this. Role tokens make this trivially easy to set up, not to mention cantripping auras like Angelic Gift. Plus, there's nothing I like more than winning with a commander that literally never has to attack. Durdlers rejoice—we've found our new queen."

That all checks out. The only aspect I underestimated was the lifegain shenanigans, of which there are many: Lunar Convocation, Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose, Well of Lost Dreams...these cards take a great commander and make it even better.

Finally, we'll end this section on a commander that didn't quite get there.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 87

Never mind that I called this "the most disturbing artwork I've seen since Grotesque Mutation"—I've got an issue with this thing. In addition to adding several cards from this set to my Commander Cube, I drafted it a ton. Like, I'd guess nearly 100 times, if not more. One thing I noticed: I never saw an Old Flitterfang.

Honestly, it was getting weird. I began to wonder if this card even existed, or if it was some elaborate prank perpetrated by Rats and/or Faeries. Turns out it was some sort of Collector Booster exclusive, as were Brenard, Ginger Sculptor and Korvold, Gleeful Glutton. Look, I'm not the first to say it, but I'll say it again: They need to advertise this stuff better.

My Big Mistakes

Alright, let's get this one out of the way first.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 5,669

Yes, 5669 is way more than 1200. Yes, I understood how the commander works. No, I still couldn't get it right. Let's see why...

"There's some interesting rules text here, because [Imodane] enables mono-red burn strategies for EDH. It's especially interesting with indestructible dudes such as Stuffy Doll and Brash Taunter."

Hmm, what's the problem? This seems like good analysis so far. Wait a minute...

"Problem is, Torbran, Thane of Red Fell already dominates that niche. I see little reason to think Imodane will pose a threat to the Thane."

Well this is embarrassing. Not only did Imodane pose a threat to Torbran—she outright beat him (by about 1000 decks, no less). They're similar, but I think the distinguishing factor is Imodane's specificity. Here's what I mean: While Torbran rewards you for playing literally any red card, Imodane rewards you for being clever. Cards like Shivan Meteor and Spitting Earth don't really go in any other decks, but in hers, they shine. That makes players feel resourceful, thereby making this commander more interesting.

Speaking of interesting commanders...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 3,439

Look can you blame me for not getting this one?

...Well, maybe. Let's review last year's take first.

"Sure, you can lower costs on your Invokers or turn your Magus of the Candelabra into a ramp machine. Yet you're really only popping off if you can permanently boost Agatha above one power, which only turns her into a lightning rod for removal."

Turns out Agatha decks play the Invokers and the Magus, not to mention Soulbright Flamekin from my all-time fav, Lorwyn, along with a bunch of other whacky big-mana activated-ability weirdos. Like Imodane, Agatha gives you a reason to play a bunch of cards you'd otherwise never use. I think I missed that because I was too focused on her fragility. Here's hoping her new Disney+ show does well.

And now for another screw up...

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,636

Uncommon commanders are tough to predict accurately, since relatively few of them hit. Greta, however, was a hit. Last year I wrote...

"She provides decent value, but I doubt she's interesting enough to supplant established black-green Food commanders like Gyome, Master Chef."

Greta got less than halfway to Gyome, so I was right about that—just not about the part that counts toward my percentage. The lesson here is, if the game of Magic is a pantry, consider it fully stocked. In other words, we've got a ton of Food cards to choose from. I'll keep that in mind moving forward.

This next commander taught me a lesson moving forward, too.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2,413

Here were my reservations about this card:

"You'll not only need to resolve your four-mana 4/4—you'll also need to wait a full turn cycle to activate. From there, you'll need a viable enchantment to copy, which will ideally already be attached to another creature, and you'll need to cross your fingers and hope you don't get utterly blown out by somebody's Infernal Grasp."

And the EDHREC community responded with a collective, "Who cares?" So, the lesson here is twofold. One, players ignore setup costs, so long as the payoff is sweet. Second, green-white enchantments go Over. Always.

We'll end on a commander who really hurt my feelings.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,001

Here were my initial thoughts on this guy:

"I'm a sucker for the delirium mechanic, so I must admit, I'm a little biased toward this one."

Uh-oh...bias!

"The cost-reduction thing seems clunky, but the payoff for slapping opponents is great, especially with the addition of Battles as another permanent type. Probably not as good as original Korvold, but still plenty powerful."

Definitely not good as original Korvold. Original Korvold is Rank #23 all-time, while this guy is a measly #996. In retrospect, I suppose the cost reduction is difficult to enable, since it often costs mana just to sacrifice stuff in the first place. Furthermore, he gets utterly blown-out by pretty much any graveyard hate. And lastly, I have to imagine the weird Collector-Booster-only thing affected his popularity, at least a little.

Correct Picks (24)

1. Hylda of the Icy Crown - Over (7,920 decks)
2. Will, Scion of Peace - Over (3,550 decks)
3. Alela, Cunning Conqueror - Over (8,701 decks)
4. Talion, the Kindly Lord - Over (5,633 decks)
5. Tegwyll, Duke of Splendor - Over (2,167 decks)
6. Rowan, Scion of War - Over (7,379 decks)
7. Totentanz, Swarm Piper - Over (2,573 decks)
8. Ellivere of the Wild Court - Over (4,324 decks)
9. Gylwain, Casting Director - Over (1,610 decks)
10. Eriette of the Charmed Apple - Over (11,543 decks)
11. Kellan, the Fae-Blooded - Over (2,213 decks)
12. The Goose Mother - Over (1,913 decks)
13. Brenard, Ginger Sculptor - Over (6,786 decks)
14. Beluna Grandsquall - Over (2,826 decks)
15. Syr Ginger, the Meal Ender - Over (1,743 decks)
16. Old Flitterfang - Under (87 decks)
17. Goddric, Cloaked Reveler - Under (113 decks)
18. Sharae of Numbing Depths - Under (258 decks)
19. Ruby, Daring Tracker - Under (530 decks)
20. Syr Armont, the Redeemer - Under (47 decks)
21. Neva, Stalked by Nightmares - Under (286 decks)
22. Johann, Apprentice Sorcerer - Under (238 decks)
23. Ash, Party Crasher - Under (205 decks)
24. Troyan, Gutsy Explorer - Under (361 decks)

Incorrect Picks (7)

1. Lord Skitter, Sewer King - Over Under (532 decks)
2. Korvold, Gleeful Glutton - Over Under (1,001 decks)
3. Imodane, the Pyrohammer - Under Over (5,652 decks)
4. Obyra, Dreaming Duelist - Under Over (1,217 decks)
5. Agatha of the Vile Cauldron - Under Over (3,439 decks)
6. Yenna, Redtooth Regent - Under Over (2,413 decks)
7. Greta, Sweettooth Scourge - Under Over (1,627 decks)

My Wilds of Eldraine Correct Prediction Percentage: 77%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 76%

This was one of my favorite recent sets, so I'm glad I could do it proud. Next time we visit Eldraine, will we discover the candy people have taken over? Tune in next time...

Read more:

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Bloomburrow Commanders

Too-Specific Top 10 - Oops, All Combos!

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.