The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of TMNT Commanders, Part 2

by
Kyle Massa
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of TMNT Commanders, Part 2

Raph & Mikey, TroublemakersRaph & Mikey, Troublemakers | Art by Aaron J. Riley

In the immortal words of Michael Scott, "Where are the turtles!?" Right here, of course.

Welcome back to The Over/Under, the article series where I predict how popular new commanders will become one year after their printing. Our line is 1,200 decks, so each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" that line. There's also one Can't-Miss Pick per article, which is my called-shot, sure-fire, surely-won't-miss selection of the set.

There were a whole lot of "Unders" in Part 1, when we covered the monocolored commanders, but I've got good news for the Turtle fans out there: The multicolored commanders have a lot more going on (and going Over).

So let's dive in...to the sewers.

Don & Leo, Problem SolversDon & Leo, Problem Solvers

Don & Leo, Problem Solvers

Blinking is a time-honored tradition in Commander, which makes these fellas intriguing. Many classic Blink commanders, such as Aminatou, the FateshifterAminatou, the Fateshifter and Roon of the Hidden RealmRoon of the Hidden Realm, target just one permanent, so doubling that number feels significant.

However, doing so at five mana and waiting until your end step to do it? That feels a little less significant.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here

Krang & ShredderKrang & Shredder

Krang & Shredder

I haven't played this legend in Commander yet, but I have played it in Draft, and let me tell you, it's a house (technically a duplex, since there are two of them.) Part of its appeal was that my opponents didn't know it was coming, so they'd trade creatures with me without realizing the true ramifications.

But if this is face-up in your command zone, your opponents won't give you the same gift. Even if you engineer a way to disappear all by yourself, savvy players will slay this pair long before you get that end-step trigger.

An overall powerful commander, but too easy to play around.

My prediction: Under

Tokka & Rahzar, Terrible TwosTokka & Rahzar, Terrible Twos

Tokka & Rahzar, Terrible Twos

My daughter is now four, so I know a thing or two about terrible twos. (Back then, her favorite word was "No.") What's Tokka & Rahzar's favorite word? "Group Slug."

Okay, that's two words, but you get the idea. You know those chaotic red cards moldering in your trade binder since the mid-2010s? Many of them now cost your opponents three life, such as Wild EvocationWild Evocation, Possibility StormPossibility Storm, and Omen MachineOmen Machine.

It's a plan so silly it just might work.

My prediction: Over

Raph & Mikey, TroublemakersRaph & Mikey, Troublemakers

Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers

If there were a Through the Omenpaths version of this card, it would've been called "Timmy & Tammy," because it’s going to appeal most to that player psychographic. There's nothing tricksy or crafty or particularly cerebral going on here; you're just tapping mana, turning sideways, and flipping until you hit a creature. Hopefully, a big creature.

It's an appealing plan for many players out there (including me, I might add), not to mention an impactful one.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here

Mikey & Leo, Chaos & OrderMikey & Leo, Chaos & Order

Mikey & Leo, Chaos & Order

I get why they nerfed this trigger to once per turn, but that limitation puts a damper on Mikey & Leo here. As such, they remind me of former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Mack Hollins: a rock-solid role player who’s not flashy enough to earn the accolades. And, just like Mack, they don't wear shoes, either.

To stretch a dubious comparison in another direction, this is Mary Jane WatsonMary Jane Watson with counters instead of Spiders, and MJ currently leads just over 100 decks.

My prediction: Under

Dark Leo & ShredderDark Leo & Shredder

Dark Leo & Shredder

This is another card I've gotten to Draft already, and let me tell you, this is an even more potent pairing than Krang & ShredderKrang & Shredder. Dark Leo & ShredderDark Leo & Shredder are efficient and deadly, with support for a popular creature type and a payoff that's easier to assemble than it looks on paper.

My only gripe is that most classic Ninjas (Fallen ShinobiFallen Shinobi, Higure, the Still WindHigure, the Still Wind, Sakashima's StudentSakashima's Student) are blue, meaning they can't appear in this deck. However, I think this pair's raw power will drive them over the mark.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here

Karai, Future of the FootKarai, Future of the Foot

Karai, Future of the Foot

I don't know what "Future of the Foot" means and I'm not going to ask. All I know is, I bet Rex Ryan likes it. Also, a lot needs to go right for it to work. You need something in the graveyard worth reanimating, an opportunity to Sneak Karai in, and a table hospitable to such tomfoolery.

My guess is, most of the time, all those stars aren't going to align.

My prediction: Under

Koya, Death from AboveKoya, Death from Above

Koya, Death from Above

You'd expect a card called "Death from Above" to be a little better. Three-mana blink or seven-mana exile provides nice optionality, and it actually does more than I realized. For instance, at my prerelease, an opponent reset my creature that I'd sunk numerous Mutagen tokens into. You can also straight-up kill creature tokens with the three-mana mode, or you can kill anything in tandem with a Containment PriestContainment Priest.

So clearly there's not nothing going on with Koya. I just think it's better in the 99 than it is as a commander.

My prediction: Under

Baxter StockmanBaxter Stockman

Baxter Stockman

Sometimes, uncommon commanders surprise me with their unexpected popularity. This isn't one of those times.

My prediction: Under

Don & Raph, Hard ScienceDon & Raph, Hard Science

Don & Raph, Hard Science

These two remind me of Sami, Wildcat CaptainSami, Wildcat Captain from Edge of Eternities, a commander who's gone well over the Over mark. Problem is, Sami discounts all spells, while Don & Raph only discount one per each of your turns, and only noncreatures. They also need to attack to trigger, which is only going to get harder the later into the game you go.

Hard to see how these hard scientists go Over.

My prediction: Hard Under

Deck tech here

MetalheadMetalhead

Metalhead

I see. So this must be TMNT's answer to Mechagodzilla. Or Robocop?

That's cool and all, but ultimately, a big Man-o'-WarMan-o'-War probably isn't exciting most Commander players out there. If you must play Metalhead, put it in your Dr. EggmanDr. Eggman deck—not the command zone. Then put on some metal and start headbanging.

My prediction: Under

Bebop & RocksteadyBebop & Rocksteady

Bebop & Rocksteady

If I didn’t have a beloved The Gitrog MonsterThe Gitrog Monster deck and a strict personal code against never simultaneously building two Commander decks of the same color identity, I'd totally build this one. Instead, I’ll settle for writing about it.

A three-mana 7/5 obliterates the vanilla test (shoutout Limited Resources). Plus, discarding and sacrificing permanents isn’t as significant a cost in Commander as it is in other formats, since we're so resource rich. You can play madness or dredge cards that want to be discarded, or numerous black creatures that want to be sacrificed (Endless CockroachesEndless Cockroaches, anyone?). Whatever you do, seven is the magic number for Commander damage, and you’re getting it as early as turn three (or sometimes two).

PS, in the 99 of an Abzan () deck, this is a sweet combo with Abigale, Eloquent First-YearAbigale, Eloquent First-Year.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here

Lord Dregg, Insect InvaderLord Dregg, Insect Invader

Lord Dregg, Insect Invader

"Dregg" is an apt name for this card. In fact, I'm unsure how he became a lord to begin with. A four-mana 3/2 is already below the curve, and four mana to draw a card and make a 1/1 is just too expensive. Probably designed more for Limited and less for Commander.

My prediction: Under

Pizza Face, GastromancerPizza Face, Gastromancer

Pizza Face, Gastromancer

This is basically Pizza the Hutt minus the voice of Dom DeLuise but plus a chef hat. The rest is amusing, but not all that playable (or palatable). I mean, there are better things you can do with 10 mana than gain 15 life, like, I don't know, actually win the game.

My prediction: Under

Old Hob, Alleycat BluesOld Hob, Alleycat Blues

Old Hob, Alleycat Blues

Oh no, I'm having flashbacks to the Cats movie, which I watched for all 110 minutes and still never learned what a "Jellicle cat" is.

I suppose the real joke here is that Old Hob auto-triggers alliance, but alliance isn't really a thing in Commander, and I doubt this set's going to change that. Also, if he starts singing that Rum Tum Tugger song, I might have to end this series here and now.

My prediction: Under

Raph & Leo, Sibling RivalsRaph & Leo, Sibling Rivals

Raph & Leo, Sibling Rivals

These two provide an extra combat a turn earlier than you’d expect, since most such effects cost four or more. You’re conceding a lot, though, since a three-mana 2/4 without keywords is pretty mopey, and they limit you to two extra attackers only. You also can’t threaten infinite combats like you can with Combat CelebrantCombat Celebrant.

In other words, I’ve had enough of these siblings and their rivalry. Who do they think they are, Liam and Noel Gallagher?

My prediction: Under

The NeutrinosThe Neutrinos

The Neutrinos

I take it this is some reference to The Jetsons, a show so old and crappy that it probably never should've existed to begin with. I won't go that far with this card—but I won't go Over, either.

My prediction: Under

Genghis FrogGenghis Frog

Genghis Frog

Mutagen tokens are super useful as stat-augmenters, artifact makers, sac fodder, and more. Plus, between this set and all those Simic weirdos from all those Ravnica sets, there are actually more Mutants in Magic than I realized (a whopping 94 in these colors, according to Scryfall).

That said, The Wise MothmanThe Wise Mothman is pretty much the only Mutant typal commander to see play, so it seems the interest for the type just isn't there.

My prediction: Under

Deck tech here

Mikey & Don, Party PlannersMikey & Don, Party Planners

Mikey & Don, Party Planners

If Mutants don't do it for you, how about Turtles and Ninjas, too?

Part of this reads like Fblthp, Lost on the RangeFblthp, Lost on the Range, a commander that went Over, but just barely (1,215 decks). I doubt these two will get there though, partially because their types aren't super deep, and partially because the keytar never should've been invented.

That said, I kinda still want to go to their party, just for a fun story to tell at another party.

My prediction: Under

Venus, Torn Between WorldsVenus, Torn Between Worlds

Venus, Torn Between Worlds

Venus wants you to pump her stats using fight spells, but that's such a risky strategy that I doubt it works game-in and game-out. If the worlds we're talking about are "Over" and "Under," I'm unsure what the issue is.

My prediction: Under

Splinter, Radical RatSplinter, Radical Rat

Splinter, Radical Rat

This geriatric rodent reminds me of Varina, Lich QueenVarina, Lich Queen, in that Zombies were pretty much only blue-black until she added white. Varina's super popular, so I’m predicting a similar result for Splinter here. Ninjas have always been a fan favorite, and now that you can get four free cards off Fallen ShinobiFallen Shinobi or fetch a bonus Ninja off Higure, the Still WindHigure, the Still Wind, I think players will be happy to run this Rat.

My prediction: Over

Deck tech here

Heroes in a Half ShellHeroes in a Half Shell

Heroes in a Half Shell

I know I was lamenting the lack of (Teenagers), Mutants, Ninjas, and Turtles earlier, but when you're playing with all five colors, that shouldn't be as much of a problem. Furthermore, a five-color commander has never gone Under in the long and storied history of this series. I don't think we're going to start now.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Deck tech here

Leonardo, the BalanceLeonardo, the Balance

Leonardo, the Balance

Ditto what I said about five-color commanders. And it doesn't hurt that Leo has partner, too (albeit with a somewhat limited scope).

My prediction: Over

Recap

Overs (7)

  1. Tokka & Rahzar, Terrible TwosTokka & Rahzar, Terrible Twos
  2. Raph & Mikey, TroublemakersRaph & Mikey, Troublemakers
  3. Dark Leo & ShredderDark Leo & Shredder
  4. Bebop & RocksteadyBebop & Rocksteady
  5. Splinter, Radical RatSplinter, Radical Rat
  6. Heroes in a Half ShellHeroes in a Half Shell (Can't-Miss Pick)
  7. Leonardo, the BalanceLeonardo, the Balance

Unders (16)

  1. Don & Leo, Problem SolversDon & Leo, Problem Solvers
  2. Krang & ShredderKrang & Shredder
  3. Mikey & Leo, Chaos & OrderMikey & Leo, Chaos & Order
  4. Karai, Future of the FootKarai, Future of the Foot
  5. Koya, Death from AboveKoya, Death from Above
  6. Baxter StockmanBaxter Stockman
  7. Don & Raph, Hard ScienceDon & Raph, Hard Science
  8. MetalheadMetalhead
  9. Lord Dregg, Insect InvaderLord Dregg, Insect Invader
  10. Pizza Face, GastromancerPizza Face, Gastromancer
  11. Old Hob, Alleycat BluesOld Hob, Alleycat Blues
  12. The NeutrinosThe Neutrinos
  13. Raph & Leo, Sibling RivalsRaph & Leo, Sibling Rivals
  14. Genghis FrogGenghis Frog
  15. Mikey & Don, Party PlannersMikey & Don, Party Planners
  16. Venus, Torn Between WorldsVenus, Torn Between Worlds

Well, that ended up being a lot shorter than Part 1. And somehow, there were only one fewer Under, despite having far fewer total commanders to evaluate. Nice to see a bit of a bounce-back for these Turtles—which is, by the way, actually a pretty fun set. I confess to being a hater at first, but now I'm an admirer. It's just like what my mom said about brussels sprouts: You won't know if you like it until you try it.

So give it a try! I promise it tastes better than Guac & Marshmallow PizzaGuac & Marshmallow Pizza.

Kyle Massa

Kyle Massa


Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Auntie Ool, Cursewretch. You can find him on Substack at www.substack.com/@wildcardmtg or on YouTube at @WildcardMTG.

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