<p style="text-align: right;"><em><span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Consult the Star Charts" href="#" target="_blank">Consult the Star Charts</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> | Art by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/ajmanzanedo/?hl=en">Antonio José Manzanedo</a></em></p>
<p>I've been winning a lot of my <em>Magic</em> games lately. It's the sort of thing that makes me nervous. I'm a firm believer that winning too much means I'm not balancing my decks' power level correctly with my pod. Brackets are tough to actually put a name to, and the experience of a pilot definitely affects the wins as well.</p>
<p>But I can't help but get a bit queasy when I see that I've won five games in a row then lose one and then win three more. And all of these wins have been with various decks at various different tables with various different power levels.</p>
<p>All of this got me thinking again about where wins really come from. Is it in the building, the skill of the player, or just blind luck?</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Floodpits Drowner"></div></div>
<h2>Lucky Lucky</h2>
<p>I want to talk about our scapegoat first, talk about the elusive, unknowable, uncontrollable element of the game. Or maybe we suppose too hastily that it is uncontrollable, unknowable.</p>
<p>I've played a lot of <em>Magic</em>. I currently have logged 237 games of Commander this year so far. I logged 311 last year. Luck is an element of the game, for sure. Someone topdecking that exact perfect thing to stop your game plan in a 99-card singleton format feels like luck. It can't, however, account for the majority of the results in most games. I can't be <em>that</em> lucky.</p>
<p>Mark Rosewater said in his <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/drive-to-work-24-the-mana-system/id580709168?i=1000387227902">Drive to Work podcast</a>, "So one of the things, I know Richard Garfield talked about this, is that you want a game... where players can blame their losses on luck and their wins on skill...Humans — the human psyche is fragile. Humans...have problems admitting that they made a mistake."</p>
<p>We all do it, try to understand how we could have been that close and punted. Maybe we go back and see some small mistakes, or maybe we feel we've played a perfect game. Either way, it is so tantalizing, psychologically, to put the responsibility on destiny, the ether, something out of our control like luck.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Emberheart Challenger"></div></div>
<p>Rosewater went on to say that "it's an important skill...if you want to get better at <em>Magic</em>, recognizing that you losing is your own fault." I want you to keep in mind Rosewater's words about whose fault losing should be, when we transition to the next section.</p>
<h2>Kai Budde and Skill</h2>
<p>I don't play competitive <em>Magic</em> often, but I am fascinated by it. I play some cEDH, but that isn't exactly what I'd consider real competitiveness. I admire the precision in competitive <em>Magic</em> building and the precision necessary to play. It is actually very thrilling to decide to attack or not to attack, to interact or not to interact.</p>
<p>I'll let you know I was very frustrated looking up how Kai Budde became who he is to the <em>Magic</em> Pro Tour. I wanted his secrets. How could someone win seven Pro Tours? The next closest to his record was three under Jon Finkel.</p>
<p>I felt if I could understand Budde, then I could understand the logistics between skill and luck, or the distinction between two players matched in skill relying on luck to win. Alas, what I got were, understandably, fans asking about his personal life. They asked how he felt when he was pressured in games, or if he would retire.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Cori-Steel Cutter"></div></div>
<p>I had to venture deeper into looking up Pro Tour strategies outside of Budde. When I did, I noticed a <em>distinct</em> vagueness to the advice. At first, I was rather frustrated by this. How does anyone get better at anything, without strict guidance? How do the coaches at the Olympics train their athletes? It has to be more than "stay hydrated" and "get some sun."</p>
<p>Then I read a section of an article by <a href="https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/How-to-be-the-Best-at-Magic/3ec45a96-6024-4bd6-9bc9-00194f2d1640/?srsltid=AU7gw4ULQvlITI6vduyG5CUp-G3uNaAPeDnTSd6A3JCAtErIbhQp2j9d">Craig Wescoe called How to be the Best at Magic</a> and it was rather sobering. It clarified something about the nitty gritty, the specifics of <em>Magic</em> that isn't translatable. The skills necessary to be exceptional in an ever-changing landscape must be universal, skills that survive as the violent, upending, and even disastrous tide changes.</p>
<p><a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/making-magic/kind-acts-randomness-2009-12-14">Mark Rosewater has written</a> about how reacting to randomness is itself deeply skill-testing. The skills I was looking for were in the mentality of the player. Wescoe said commitment, overcoming frustration or burnout, overcoming stagnation, and overcoming overconfidence were the tools necessary to become a successful Pro Tour player.</p>
<p>He even mentioned Budde in his section about commitment, talking about how many hours Budde had spent testing his decks and strategy.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Consult the Star Charts"></div></div>
<p>It's about resilience and flexibility. Overcoming overconfidence is accepting that your deck isn't good enough yet, that you misplayed, that you relied more on luck than your opponent. "I used to be arrogant. I still am, but I used to be too," is <a href="https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Luck-Skill-Victory-My-Magic-Journey-Part-1-Deep-Dive/e7422350-592c-494d-9fb8-fc7ccd77c6a7/?srsltid=AU7gw4W2ntddhS31h4dIoKvpulzs4YpTsWEOOoUT2msEBZ4dVaVppyxN">a quote used by Luis Scott-Vargas (LSV)</a>, a Pro Tour champion — who borrows the construction from the late comedian Mitch Hedberg — that I think describes this perfectly.</p>
<p>We sometimes believe in ourselves so much that we reject that the failure could be on us. That is a failure to our pursuit to perfect our skill.</p>
<p>"My opponent <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mindslaver" href="#" target="_blank">Mindslaver</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>ed me, saw my hand of all lands and said, 'tap you out and pass the turn.' I then corrected them and said, 'that's fine but <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Juggernaut" href="#" target="_blank">Juggernaut</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> has to attack.' They read <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Juggernaut" href="#" target="_blank">Juggernaut</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>, grimaced and conceded...that's how I killed someone during a <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mindslaver" href="#" target="_blank">Mindslaver</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span> turn, a feat I've never seen replicated." <a href="https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Luck-Skill-Victory-My-Magic-Journey-Part-1-Deep-Dive/e7422350-592c-494d-9fb8-fc7ccd77c6a7/?srsltid=AU7gw4W2ntddhS31h4dIoKvpulzs4YpTsWEOOoUT2msEBZ4dVaVppyxN">LSV said this, recounting a game he won.</a></p>
<p>On either side of this play, from the perspective of the opponent and LSV, there is resilience. To grit your teeth and push through being <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Mindslaver" href="#" target="_blank">Mindslaver</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>ed with no useful cards in hand, and to his opponent who misplayed so carefully that they had to grit their teeth and accept their mistake. This is how you improve your skill.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Badgermole Cub"></div></div>
<h2>Building and the Mystery of Creativity</h2>
<p>When discerning between our skill in building and skill in playing, there is a difficult and thin line. A well-piloted bad deck can sometimes look better than it is. A poorly piloted excellent deck can look the opposite. Again, I was frustrated with what I could find online about building well.</p>
<p>There weren't a ton of tangible things about building that didn't seem either too specific, and thus not always applicable, or so general that it felt like it didn't offer enough guidance.</p>
<p><a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/how-build-pro-2016-02-02">Melissa DeTora said</a> to "Have a Solid Plan, Play Cards That Matter...Mana Curve Is Important...[and] Have the Correct Mana Base," but this advice is a bit specific about one particular thing, which isn't enough to push a deckbuilding strategy enough in the right direction.</p>
<p>I do think it's good advice and essential at a base level, similar to how <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/my-most-important-deck-building-rule-2018-02-08">Gavin Verhey on My Most Important Deck-Building Rule</a> says, "A deck has a strategy. A goal. A plan. It's directly employing overall tactics," but it doesn't cover enough of what someone needs to push through the granularity of perfecting a deck.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Galvanic Bombardment"></div></div>
<p>"Died to Mana Screw? You Probably Made a Mistake Before That," <em>Magic</em> writer and player Carmen Klomparens said on stream. I think her point here is the building process.</p>
<p>Alongside <a href="https://draftsim.com/magic-the-gathering-quote/">Patrick Chapin's book <em>Next Level Magic</em></a> saying, "If Your Deck Isn't 25% Brew, You've Got No Heart. But If You Aren't At Least 25% Netdeck, You've Got No Brain," there is some desire to push some responsibility on the deckbuilding process. Sometimes, we have to be creative but learn from those before us, from our elders, from professionals.</p>
<p>It is still hard how to compare two decks that do what is described, but one wins more often than the other. I wanted to know the exact equation to test and criticize a deck. Again, the variability of Commander in particular makes this process an art more than a science.</p>
<p>I think that's the thing: we must turn to our building as a concern when we feel confident in our skill as players, even if deciding these things are somewhat vague.</p>
<p>"Restrictions Breed Creativity," is a phrase <a href="https://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/22705729575/did-you-coin-the-phrase-restriction-breeds">Mark Rosewater</a> is known to say, but some variation of this phrase has been said before him. Even Rosewater himself doesn't know if he coined the phrase. I bring this up because, when we restrict our thinking, allow ourselves to eliminate luck and sharpen our skill to a head, we must be creative in our building to overcome odds. It's the final piece of winning.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Keen-Eyed Curator"></div></div>
<h2>So Is It Luck, Skill, or Building That Makes You Victorious?</h2>
<p><a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/making-magic/big-picture-2022-01-17">Mark Rosewater</a> said that "<em>Magic</em> Is Not One Game, But Many Games." And <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/my-most-important-deck-building-rule-2018-02-08">Gavin Verhey said,</a> "In <em>Magic</em>, there are enough forms of conflict to deal with: your opponent's hand, your opponent's creatures, and your own slowly growing inner turmoil as you try and figure out how to attack, to name a few."</p>
<p>I think this means that in order to win, to be victorious, we must balance all of the plates, all the axes of resistance. We have to account for our building when our skill is peaked. "I should also note, your deck is not always going to perfectly follow its mission," <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/my-most-important-deck-building-rule-2018-02-08">Gavin Verhey said.</a> We have to account for luck once we've accounted for our ability to play and our deckbuilding.</p>
<p>I'll close out with a sentiment from the partial inspiration of this article, "Being Balanced Doesn't Make It Fun," is a slight paraphrasing of a sentiment of LSV, and "The Best Play Uses All Your Mana" is a <a href="https://lrcast.com/">Limited Resources</a> adage.</p>
<p>I know we all want to be better, perform better, but sometimes the most important thing is to just be happy with yourself. Tap out. Build greedily. Explode brilliantly into color. That's what I think. What do you think? I'm <a href="https://linktr.ee/strixhavendropout">@strixhavendropout</a> on everything.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>


Luck Skill Victory

<p style="text-align: right;"><em>Kai Budde, Magic Pro Player | Image source: DailyMTG</em></p>
<p>In late January 2026, the <em>Magic</em> community lost its greatest <em>Magic</em> Pro Player, Kai Budde. Budde, 46, was one of the most prolific professional <em>Magic</em> players in the entire history of the game.</p>
<p>Every game has its juggernauts, and then there's <em>Magic</em>'s Kai Budde. Budde's lifetime achievement list playing <em>Magic</em> is expansive and storied. He began playing <em>Magic</em> in 1997 and entered the Hall of Fame in 2007.</p>
<p>Budde's achievements include five Pro Tour titles (an unbeaten record as of this writing), two Team Pro Tour titles, two World Championships wins (one on his own and one in a team), seven Grand Prix wins, and four Player of the Year awards. This list is certainly non-exhaustive.</p>
<p>Budde also won the 2001 <em>Magic</em> Invitational, which allowed him to design a card for Wizards of the Coast. That card ended up releasing in <em>Onslaught</em>. That card was <span class="edhrecp__link"><a class="edhrecp__link-a" content="Voidmage Prodigy|ONS|120" href="#" target="_blank">Voidmage Prodigy</a><span class="edhrecp__link-image"></span></span>. It had Budde's likeness on it, one of the truly great honors for any professional <em>Magic</em> player to have.</p>
<div class="edhrecp__cards"><div class="edhrecp__card-container" name="Voidmage Prodigy|ONS|120"></div></div>
<p>Also among Kai Budde's impressive array of achievements was the fact that he is one of only a handful of players to have a Top Finish in each of four different decades. According to <a href="https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/remembering-kai-budde">DailyMTG's tribute</a>, Kai took these finishes between 1999 and 2003, 2011, 2019, 2023, and 2024.</p>
<p><a href="https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-175051" src="https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg.jpg" alt="Kai Budde with his Player of the Year trophy. Image credit: Magic.gg" width="1920" height="1080" srcset="https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg.jpg 1920w, https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cloudflare.edhrec.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/kai-budde-player-of-the-year-trophy-magic-gg-1536x864.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px" /></a></p>
<p>Furthermore, Kai Budde was a loyal friend to many of <em>Magic</em>'s greats. William Jensen, for one, spoke highly about Budde in a statement made to DailyMTG:</p>
<blockquote><p>"The world has lost a juggernaut," Jensen said. "Kai Budde embodied what it meant to be the greatest of all time. By far the winningest Pro Tour champion in <i>Magic</i> history, Kai was not only a champion on the battlefield but a champion as a teammate, a champion as a person, and a champion as a friend. <i>Magic</i> and the Pro Tour are better for having had Kai be a part of them, and all of us will miss him greatly. Rest in peace, Kai."</p></blockquote>
<p>The team at EDHREC mourns the loss of this instrumental and prolific <em>Magic</em> Pro Player. Kai Budde will be deeply missed.</p>


pro player

Luck Skill Victory

Remembering Kai Budde, Beloved Pro Magic Player