Rakdos, the Muscle | Art by Victor Maury

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A Wild Bunch of Commanders

Welcome back to another episode of The Over/Under, partner. In this here Western, I predict which commanders will live on like legends and which will lose the proverbial shootout. The bounty's set at 1,200 decks, so an "Over" means I'm guessing the commander will lead more than that many decks after a year, while "Under" means fewer. There's also one Can't-Miss Pick, which is my sure-fire shot of the set.

So, friendo. You ready to head into the west? Let's get started.

Fortune, Loyal Steed

Blink commanders are often popular, but this one needs to survive combat to work, and that's no guarantee on a 2/4. Also, whatever that thing is, I'm not climbing on top of it.

My prediction: Under

Fblthp, Lost on the Range

When I tried writing about this card after it was spoiled, I had no idea what this sentence meant: "The top card of your library has plot." It also has length, width, and a pleasing sound when flicked. But what the heck is "plot"?

Now that I know, it hardly matters. This guy is a fan favorite, and he'll continue to be.

My prediction: Over

Geralf, the Fleshwright

Speaking of fan favorites, Geralf here loves Plot, Suspend, Delve, Convoke, and more. Plus, he works with all entering Zombies, not just the ones he creates, meaning your Undead Alchemist will feel right at home.

My prediction: Over

Gisa, the Hellraiser

For those who've always wanted Death Baron in the command zone, you've finally got your wish—sort of. Menace is better on offense than deathtouch, and although Gisa costs two more than the Baron, you also get protection from Ward and the ability to create not one, but two tokens per crime committed. Yee haw.

My prediction: Over

Kaervek, the Punisher

I had no idea what to think of this fella, which is why I consulted my official Over/Under Consiglieres, Jason and Shane.

...Unfortunately, they didn't know what to think of him, either. Though they noted a passing resemblance to Snapcaster Mage and some definite combo potential, no consensus was reached.

Ultimately, I believe players will come to view this like Yawgmoth's Will from the command zone. Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Entomb, Jet Medallion, Tendrils of Agony...Kaervek is brewing up a stew, and I think 1200 players out there are gonna dig the taste.

My prediction: Over

Tinybones, the Pickpocket

Look, it's a tiny little skeleton dressed like a cowboy dancing on a piano, presumably playing "Hot Crossed Buns." What more could you want out of a commander?

My prediction: Over

Vadmir, New Blood

This is a nice standalone threat, but as a commander, its only build-around fun comes from committing crimes. Pretty much every other card in the set does that.

My prediction: Under

Calamity, Galloping Inferno

I'd like this card better if it was Nicolas Cage in-costume as Ghost Rider riding the horse, but since the rider must be nonlegendary, that rules him out. Still, duplicating a creature or two for a turn is quite powerful, even if it's only temporary. Rionya, Fire Dancer and Delina, Wild Mage both went Over, so I suspect this will do the same.

My prediction: Over

Magda, the Hoardmaster

With mono-red staples like Chaos Warp, Deflecting Swat, and Abrade, committing a crime should be trivial. Better yet, with big Treasure-makers like Dockside Extortionist and Brass's Bounty, you can attack for massive damage out of nowhere.

My prediction: Over

Bristly Bill, Spine Sower

Some players might save this for the 99 so they can combine it with Insidious Roots, and I can't blame them. Many more, however, might enjoy Bill here as their head honcho, because he's kind of like Kalonian Hydra in the command zone.

My prediction: Over

Jem Lightfoote, Sky Explorer

It's like Serra Angel plus Hill Giant plus a conditional personal Howling Mine, which adds up to...not enough.

My prediction: Under

Lazav, Familiar Stranger

Lazav's looking a lot like Roland Deschain from The Dark Tower, but he's not sparking my interest in quite the same way. Kind of feels like the same old Lazav, a commander we've had three times already.

My prediction: Under

Satoru, the Infiltrator

Plot is the most obvious synergy for Satoru, but he works with many other mechanics, most notably Ninjutsu. And if we've learned anything from Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow, it's that people really like Ninjas.

My prediction: Over

Akul the Unrepentant

This card is eerily similar to an all-time Rakdos stud: Rakdos, Lord of Riots. Same casting cost, same keywords, plus nearly identical stats and play patterns, since both commanders want to cheat out massive threats.

So the real question is this: Is Akul too similar? Will this overlap feel interesting or redundant? I'm leaning toward the former, operating under the premise that it's too powerful to ignore. And if I'm wrong, I'll be as unrepentant as Akul here.

My prediction: Over

Laughing Jasper Flint

This reminds me of a color shifted Xanathar, Guild Kingpin, one of the most popular commanders from a fairly popular set in Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. Jesper has the added benefit of typal synergies, a free crime on your upkeep, and even a built-in laugh track.

My prediction: Over

Rakdos, the Muscle

Muscle is right, because this is Rakdos on steroids. While perhaps not the build-around god that the aforementioned Rakdos, Lord of Riots is, this version still powers up already great cards like Ashnod's Altar and Viscera Seer to frightening levels. I'd have him join my posse any day.

My prediction: Over

Vial Smasher, Gleeful Grenadier

Vial Smasher is back and...kinda underwhelming. Outlaws are hard enough to track, and even when you play one, it's a measly one damage.

My prediction: Under

Jolene, Plundering Pugilist

Treasure is cool and all, but two mana for one damage is a pretty poor exchange rate.

My prediction: Under

Roxanne, Starfall Savant

For those who forced Meteorite in Dominaria United Draft even though it was bad (i.e. me), this is the commander for you. Roxanne also interacts favorably with Treasure tokens, and those are almost always popular.

My prediction: Over

Miriam, Herd Whisperer

Miriam's closest comp is likely Mirri, Weatherlight Duelist, a commander that leads a respectable 1,206 decks. Miriam has the same stats at one less mana, plus offers additional synergy with Mounts, of which there are many in this set. All that adds up to a promising commander.

My prediction: Over

Selvala, Eager Trailblazer

A free token per creature cast is a nice start. The tap ability is more narrow, but similar enough to Midnight Hunt's Coven, a mechanic that put two commanders Over 1,200 decks. Based on those points and the look of determination in Selvala's elk's eyes, I'm feeling bullish. Or elkish?

My prediction: Over

Wylie Duke, Atiin Hero

Wylie literally can't tap while attacking, which is acceptable, since Mounts, Vehicles, and Convoke all trigger him with ease. There's some tension between him and Miriam, Herd Whisperer since they occupy the same space, but I think it's open enough that multiple commanders can score big.

My prediction: Over

Baron Bertram Graywater

This guy looks like he's wearing a lab coat, which makes me feel like we're back in Fallout land. He is, however, a lot less impressive than most Fallout commanders, and most commanders in general. A free lifelinking token doesn't move the needle, nor does a mediocre sacrifice ability.

My prediction: Under

Kambal, Profiteering Mayor

Mayors also feel like a Fallout callback; that set had so many I'm surprised there weren't typal synergies. This mayor's effect is contingent on opposing actions, which is normally a red flag. I'm less hesitant here, however, since pretty much every EDH deck generates tokens. Plus, if your opponents won't make their own, you can force them with cards like Get Lost, Declaration in Stone, and Hunted Horror. Very cool card.

My prediction: Over

Breeches, the Blastmaker

This card is one part wordy and three parts silly. That said, many players enjoy randomness, especially in Izzet.

My prediction: Over

Eris, Roar of the Storm

There's some tension in this design, since Prowess best rewards single-mana spells, yet Eris's cost-reduction clause demands a variety of costs. Will that be enough?

For answers, I consulted the Consiglieres again. While Jason and Shane both acknowledged Eris's potency, they were hesitant to cosign an Over, since the setup cost is steep and another commander from this precon is getting more online interest (we'll meet her soon). That's enough for me.

My prediction: Under

Kraum, Violent Cacophony

This second-spell thing has appeared several times now, and though it's occasionally impactful, it rarely pulls big numbers. The original Kraum, Ludevic's Opus leads a whopping 11,338 decks, but that's probably because he's a Partner. This new version is less promising.

My prediction: Under

Lilah, Undefeated Slickshot

This card essentially grants free Rebound to all your multicolored instants and sorceries, only better, since you can cast them later whenever you want. As if one Magma Opus isn't enough to swing the game...

My prediction: Over

Malcolm, the Eyes

I underrated the original Malcolm, probably properly rated the next version, and couldn't have rated Ian Malcolm, Chaotician highly enough. This Malcolm is pretty much just a cheaper version of Jori En, Ruin Diver, who leads only 655 decks.

My latest Malcolm rating: Under

Stella Lee, Wild Card

This is a far more potent treatment of the two-spell thing, especially since it's tacked onto an Izzet Spellslinger commander. Plus, every friend group needs a wild card. Here's yours.

My prediction: Over

Honest Rutstein

Somebody get a paternity test, because this looks a lot like the child of Umori, the Collector and Gravedigger. Seems like a solid value card, but honestly, little more than that.

My prediction: Under

The Gitrog, Ravenous Ride

The Gitrog Monster is one of my all-time favorite cards, and while this isn't quite the same value engine, it's pretty darn close. Reminds me of the rides at the New York State Fair: They look fun, but they'll probably kill you.

My prediction: Over

Vraska, the Silencer

While this ability may seem underwhelming, it's actually quite similar to Shelob, Child of Ungoliant and Myrkul, Lord of Bones, both of which are wildly popular. Although the petrified creatures lose their card types, they won't lose their abilities, meaning you can do stuff like kill a Beast Whisperer, then reap the rewards.

There's a chance players won't dig a third commander in this space, but for now, I'm going to play it safe—unlike the patrons of the saloon in the above artwork.

My prediction: Over

Bruse Tarl, Roving Rancher

Finally, the Oxen typal commander we've all been waiting for. Plus, Bruse draws cards and makes tokens. Get your Pillarfield Ox ready.

My prediction: Over

Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor

Names don't get much more western than "Ertha Jo." And not only does Ertha's ability work with her token—it doubles your pings from Prodigal Pyromancer, your copies from Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, and your stolen turns from Mindslaver (though you'll technically need to select multiple opponents). I like this card so much, I'm about to do something I've never done for an uncommon...

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Taii Wakeen, Perfect Shot

Why couldn't they have used this design for Legolas in Tales of Middle-earth? Legolas, Counter of Kills is barely coherent, let alone playable. Taii here is far cooler, not to mention unique, with an ability that turns perfect shots into cantrips. Pour one out for Leggy.

My prediction: Over

Bonny Pall, Clearcutter

Okay, we've got our Paul Bunyan, but where is our Johnny Appleseed? Maybe that'll appear as an Otter in Bloomburrow.

Anyhoo, Bonny here is absolutely nuts, giving you massive stats that grow with each attack. Think of it like Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, only not banned in every other format. And with an axe. And a giant blue cow.

My prediction: Over

Doc Aurlock, Grizzled Genius

Could this be Ruxa, Patient Professor living under an assumed name while on sabbatical from Strixhaven? Maybe. All I know for certain is, this doc supports all sorts of popular mechanics, including flashback, Adventure, Foretell, and most obviously, Plot. No wonder he's got a doctorate.

My prediction: Over

Eriette, the Beguiler

The original Eriette, Eriette of the Charmed Apple, is already the third most popular Orzhov commander ever. This new version, however, is far more narrow. I'm sure there's a reason for the lesser mana value clause, but in my opinion, it kills Eriette's viability, because it's just too restrictive.

My prediction: Under

Marchesa, Dealer of Death

Compared to our previous three Marchesas (she's on the back of Invasion of Fiora), this one's a dud. One mana for card draw/selection is decent, yet it feels more uncommon power level than rare. And has she abdicated the throne of Fiora just to stab randos in saloons? I'm confused in so many ways.

My prediction: Under

Obeka, Splitter of Seconds

The Consiglieres were high on this card, and so am I. It's basically a souped-up Paradox Haze from the command zone, which makes cards like As Foretold, Court of Embereth, and Court of Ire go nuts. I haven't liked an Ogre this much since Shrek.

My prediction: Over

Annie Flash, the Veteran

Sun Titan from the command zone, anyone? She also serves as an excellent pilot for Vehicles and/or rider for Mounts, making her one heck of an easy pick.

My prediction: Over

Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds

Though this version of Ghired doesn't spot you a token like Ghired, Conclave Exile, he lets you copy noncreature tokens such as Clues, Treasure, and Food. Plus, he easily generates infinite tokens with Midnight Guard. Is this just Splinter Twin?

My prediction: Over

Kirri, Talented Sprout

Botanists rejoice.

My prediction: Over

Yuma, Proud Protector

It may be 3:10 to Yuma, but this Yuma needs 1,200 decks, and he'll get there with ease. Naya Deserts is totally a thing, as evidenced by Hazezon, Shaper of Sand. Yuma offers the added benefit of getting progressively cheaper, especially with the help of fetch lands, self mill, and discard.

My prediction: Over

Kellan, the Kid

Little known fact: Billy Joel originally recorded a song called "The Ballad of Kellan the Kid" for his 1973 album Piano Man, but was forced to change the name to "Billy" when Hasbro went back in time to sue him. That's how we got this card, a Bant value machine that synergizes with Plot, Foretell, Adventure, flashback, Retrace, Aftermath, Suspend, and pretty much any other alternate-cost mechanic you can name. Just don't tell Billy Joel.

My prediction: Over

Olivia, Opulent Outlaw

If typal commanders that care about only one type almost always go Over, then a commander that cares about five-in-one is an absolute lock, right? If only I could use my Can't-Miss Pick twice...

My prediction: Over

Vihaan, Goldwaker

Vigilance and haste aren't the biggest payoffs, but animating one's Treasure should prove too cool to pass up, especially when you can attack, then sacrifice any survivors in your second main phase to cast more outlaws.

My prediction: Over

Loot, the Key to Everything

I've always enjoyed Delirium decks, and Loot provides a similar gameplay experience, albeit in a cuter form than say, Emrakul, the Promised End. A little on the generic goodstuff end, but not dull by any means.

My prediction: Over

Riku of Many Paths

This might seem too niche at first glance, but between Spree, Charms, Commands, and all those D&D choice cards, there are many paths for Riku to take.

My prediction: Over

Felix Five-Boots

This is some of the most clunky rules text I've ever seen, but that doesn't make it bad. It's actually great with Ancient Brass Dragon, Ancient Bronze Dragon, and Ancient Silver Dragon, or any Coastal Piracy effects. Funniest of all, your Vraska the Unseen Assassin tokens will kill your opponents twice.

My prediction: Over

Gonti, Canny Acquisitor

We EDH players are like Jawas, in that we love stealing stuff (and some of us also wear hoodies and speak in gibberish). Gonti here allows you to do just that, using a color identity that's always popular. I'm seen scuttle that this is a boring design, but it's still a face commander, which places the floor fairly high.

My prediction: Ibana (That's apparently Jawaese for "Yes," which is the closest I could find to "Over")

Recap

Overs (38)

1. Fblthp, Lost on the Range
2. Geralf, the Fleshwright
3. Gisa, the Hellraiser
4. Kaervek, the Punisher
5. Tinybones, the Pickpocket
6. Calamity, Galloping Inferno
7. Magda, the Hoardmaster
8. Bristly Bill, Spine Sower
9. Satoru, the Infiltrator
10. Akul the Unrepentant
11. Laughing Jasper Flint
12. Rakdos, the Muscle
13. Roxanne, Starfall Savant
14. Miriam, Herd Whisperer
15. Selvala, Eager Trailblazer
16. Wylie Duke, Atiin Hero
17. Kambal, Profiteering Mayor
18. Breeches, the Blastmaker
19. Lilah, Undefeated Slickshot
20. Stella Lee, Wild Card
21. The Gitrog, Ravenous Ride
22. Vraska, the Silencer
23. Bruse Tarl, Roving Rancher
24. Taii Wakeen, Perfect Shot
25. Bonny Pall, Clearcutter
26. Doc Aurlock, Grizzled Genius
27. Obeka, Splitter of Seconds
28. Annie Flash, the Veteran
29. Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds
30. Kirri, Talented Sprout
31. Yuma, Proud Protector
32. Kellan, the Kid
33. Olivia, Opulent Outlaw
34. Vihaan, Goldwaker
35. Loot, the Key to Everything
36. Riku of Many Paths
37. Felix Five-Boots
38. Gonti, Canny Acquisitor

Unders (13)

1. Fortune, Loyal Steed
2. Vadmir, New Blood
3. Jem Lightfoote, Sky Explorer
4. Lazav, Familiar Stranger
5. Vial Smasher, Gleeful Grenadier
6. Jolene, Plundering Pugilist
7. Baron Bertram Graywater
8. Eris, Roar of the Storm
9. Kraum, Violent Cacophony
10. Malcolm, the Eyes
11. Honest Rutstein
12. Eriette, the Beguiler
13. Marchesa, Dealer of Death

Can't-Miss Pick

• Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor

38 is a lot of Overs, though I think it's accurate, since this is shaping up to be one banger of a set. Will I be vindicated, or will I go down as the biggest fool on the range? Only time will tell. For now, lemme ride off into the sunset.

Read more:

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Fallout Commanders

The Over/Under - Predicting The Popularity Of Murders At Karlov Manor And Clue Commanders

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.