(Sheoldred, the Apocalypse | Art by Chris Rahn)

United (But Not the Airline)

Welcome back to another edition of The Over/Under, the article series where we chuckle at my worst prognostications.

...Well, sort of. It's been a year since I predicted how popular Dominaria United commanders (DMU) would become. Now it's time to check my work.

My line was 600 decks, and I gave each commander (yes, all 75 of them) an "Over" or "Under" grade, the former for more than 600 decks, the latter for less. I also did a couple "Can't-Miss" picks, which are like called shots in Horse. You can re-read my articles from last year (both Part 1 and Part 2), or you can forge ahead, since I'll be quoting those articles throughout.

Ready to reunite once again? Here we go.

Overall Impressions

Before we get into the specifics, let's start with some general stats:

Total number of commanders: 75

Total number of commander decks: 98,741

Average commander deck count: 1,316

Most decks: Jodah, the Unifier (12,546 decks)

Fewest decks: Bortuk Bonerattle (23 decks)

As you can see, the preponderance of uncommon commanders in this set reduced the average deck count. For example, compare DMU's 1,316 average to its preceding set, Baldur's Gate, which had an average of 1,836 decks per commander. Granted, Baldur's Gate had a lot of uncommon commanders, too, though it was primarily a multiplayer product, so the overall power level was slightly pushed, even on the uncommons. See Minthara, Merciless Soul, for example, who reads more like a rare.

Stuff like Bortuk Bonerattle does not. Honestly, it kinda reads like a common. Same for chaff like Zar Ojanen, Scion of Efrava and Radha, Coalition Warlord, which only pulled 35 and 50 decks, respectively.

Aside from the uncommons, the commander product commanders were surprisingly underwhelming, too. These decks usually pull the biggest numbers, yet out of 34 eligible candidates, almost half went Under (15 of them, or 44%, to be exact).

Ah, but have you noticed the discrepancy? Though 34 commanders bear the DMC (Dominaria United Commander) logo, most of them didn't actually appear in the preconstructed commander decks. They were box toppers!

Well, apparently they were technically called "Legends Retold". But how the heck was I supposed to remember that?

Anyhoo, these box toppers (or Legends Retold, if we're being official) only appeared in Collector Boosters or, as the name implies, on top of booster boxes. This obviously greatly limits their circulation, and that probably explains why many of them fared so poorly.

...Except for Hazezon, Shaper of Sand. That dude is thriving.

Now that we've analyzed the set as a whole, let's revisit some specific successes (and yes, failures). Let's start with the positives.

My Solid Selections

I usually only do one Can't-Miss Pick per set, but with a set featuring 75 freakin' commanders, I went with two. And those two were...

My predictions: Overs for both

Final deck counts: 1,220 and 1,596, respectively

It's no coincidence that both these Overs are typal commanders, since they're eternally popular in EDH. Interestingly, Ramses represents an obscure type, while Rivaz represents a popular one. Though both fared well, shallower types make more challenging builds, thus explaining Ramses's slightly poorer results. Just look at the "New Cards" section for both: Rivaz gets Decadent Dragon from Wilds of Eldraine, while Ramses gets Stingblade Assassin. Bit of a power gap there.

Where else did we find success? Oh yeah, here.

My predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 12,546, 2,399, and 1,230, respectively

I'm grouping our five-color commander together because, once again, they never fail to hit the Over. Jodah, the Unifier currently ranks #19 all time, which even outperformed his previous iteration (that's Jodah, Archmage Eternal with 7,856 decks and rank 60). In last year's article I wrote...

"Five-color legends is already an established archetype, and Jodah will contend with Sisay, Weatherlight Captain for primacy."

Hey, I even got that prediction right! Can I add it to my percentage?

Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile performed the least well of the WUBRG trio, likely because it's the hardest to build around. To get full value, you want to be casting five-color spells, though there are currently only 46 such cards in the games history, meaning many will be left out (case and point: Atogatog). Overall a fine five-color option, though clearly not the best.

Next up, a legend in the making...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,416

A fun name to say and a fun card to play. Here's what I wrote about this Zombie Wizard last year:

"...Some legends are legends because they'd be too powerful in multiples. Ratadrabik lets you break that paradigm, especially with populate cards. The Zombie text buries the lede; the rest is where you want to be."

First off, I want to thank our talented EDHREC editors for replacing my initial spelling of "lead" with the more precise "lede." Shows what I know. Second, I want to thank myself for getting this prediction fairly accurate. Ten out of 10 High Synergy cards in Ratadrabik decks are legends, with two coming from the summer's Lord of the Rings set. I mention that because the set featured over a hundred legendary creatures, plus many other cards that synergize with them. I suspect that helped boost Ratadrabik's numbers.

This next one turned out to be interesting too...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 5,966

Last year, I suggested one could "baffle the table by trying to figure out how this works with Mutate." I was being flippant, yet the players weren't: They put Gemrazer, Migratory Greathorn, and Sea-Dasher Octopus into Ivy's High-Synergy Cards section. To be honest, I still don't understand how that interaction works—though I have to assume it's positive.

Now let's get the youth involved.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 2,328

Last year I wrote a lengthy paragraph about this young man, but I think the final sentence sums it up best:

"This card is outstanding."

He's especially outstanding because he essentially ports the classic Izzet spellslinger archetype into Rakdos, with classics like Guttersnipe, Electrostatic Field, and Storm-Kiln Artist making the jump. After browsing the page, I kinda want to build this deck, too. Bear with me a moment...

...Okay I'm back. Bit of a card avalanche in my closet, I'll explain later. Let's close out this section with a successful Under.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 226

Here's how I began my evaluation:

"I feel like a guy named 'Torsten' should be a tortoise."

After that delicious appetizer, we get to the meat of the argument.

"[Torsten] seems good, but also kind of vanilla, especially for a seven-drop. Sure, a draw-seven sounds great on paper, yet Overflowing Insight appears in less than one percent of decks."

My food metaphor is breaking down, here, but you get the idea. I feel like people were surprised by this pick at the time, yet it proved correct in the end.

But before I take my victory lap, let's see where I screwed up most.

My Big Mistakes

Alright, time to rip the band-aid off. This isn't just my worst pick of the set—it's one of my worst picks ever.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 6,312

Yes, I predicted mono-black's fourth most popular commander and a Top 100 commander overall would go Under. I propose we rewrite Sheoldred's flavor text to this: "Kyle failed. I shall not." Here's where the failure started:

"...Though damage for card draw is a tried-and-true EDH archetype (see Nekusar, the Mindrazer), it's far less potent without the wheel effects of blue and red."

Umm, well, actually, Kyle, you kinda forgot about the numerous mono-black cards that force opponents to draw, like Peer into the Abyss and Seizan, Perverter of Truth. Plus, there are many additional effects that stack with the card-draw punishment, such as Ob Nixilis, the Hate-Twisted and Underworld Dreams.

In closing, going Under on this card was a worse decision than Bill Belichick assigning Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to call plays for the 2022 New England Patriots. And that's really saying something.

That said, not all of my incorrect picks can be abject dumpster-fires. This one still surprises me:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 526

According to last year's analysis...

"There are only 42 white and colorless Griffins in Magic, and few of them are good, yet if I've learned anything from Ayula, Queen Among Bears, it's this: no type is too obscure."

Except for this one. Zeriam basically reads like this: Hey, you know that crappy Silverbeak Griffin in your deck that's somehow the top High-Synergy card for this commander overall? Well guess what? When it deals damage, you get another crappy two-mana 2/2 flyer!

When we put it that way, I understand the Under a little better. Now let's look at another almost-Over that I overestimated.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 437

This was one of the first commanders spoiled from the set, as I remember, which usually bodes well for results. Not here. Last year I wrote the following:

"Pirates and Treasures are prime ingredients for an Over, and, fortunately for us EDH players, they go together like salsa and guac. Plus, Ramirez DePietro, Pillager even offers consistent card advantage."

Great, now I'm hungry for Chipotle. I'm also hungry for an explanation...what happened here? I suppose the absence of red in Ramirez's color identity really hurts, because it leaves Pirate all-stars like Coercive Recruiter and Captain Lannery Storm on the bench. Perhaps if the upcoming Lost Caverns of Ixalan had released several months earlier, this captain might've had smoother sailing. Instead, he's been marooned on Under Island.

This next one really hurt.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 254

Here's last year's analysis in its entirety:

"Sol'Kanar is so sweet. He comes down as a versatile value engine, accelerating you on any three important axes of the game. Afterward, you can play politics and let an opponent borrow him, or you might employ Homeward Path to reclaim him. My only question is, where's the swampwalk?"

Perhaps the lack of Swampwalk was the issue, because Sol'Kanar the Tainted somehow underperformed his previous iteration, Sol'kanar the Swamp King.

I'm befuddled. Isn't this card an amazing build-around? You can play blink effects, you can punish your opponents for taking your stuff. Many decks do both (see Displacer Kitten and Blim, Comedic Genius).

Perhaps the versatility is a weakness, not a strength. After all, many lists appear to be scattered rather than focused, suggesting the build is too sloppy. I'm bummed for my guy.

We'll close out with a pair of commanders:

My predictions: Over and Under, respectively

Final deck counts: 512 and 655, respectively

Interesting to see two commanders in the same colors from the same archetype, yet the higher-rarity one goes Under while the lower-rarity one goes Over. Here's what I wrote about King Darien last year:

"...Haven't we seen these same effects on basically every Selesnya go-wide commander? Nonetheless, they always perform well, whether I anticipate it or not."

And then I reviewed Queen Allenal immediately afterward...

"I know I just said players love go-wide commanders, but this is clearly designed for Limited, not EDH."

Guess again, pal. Perhaps the flaw in my logic was not paying more attention to the token production aspects of both cards; while the Queen tacks free Soldiers onto any token-maker, the King requires five mana—which is far too much for a 1/1, even if it comes with a +1/+1 counter. I wonder how the 'bloids will handle this royal fiasco.

Recap

Correct Picks (53)

1. Emperor Mihail II - Over (632 decks)
2. Braids, Arisen Nightmare - Over (4,477 decks)
3. Baru, Wurmspeaker - Over (1,822 decks)
4. Greensleeves, Maro-Sorcerer - Over (992 decks)
5. Ramses, Assassin Lord - Over (1,220 decks...Can't Miss Pick!)
6. Sivitri, Dragon Master - Over (846 decks)
7. Garna, Bloodfist of Keld - Over (1,292 decks)
8. Rivaz of the Claw - Over (1,596 decks...Can't Miss Pick!)
9. Rohgahh, Kher Keep Overlord - Over (610 decks)
10. Tor Wauki the Younger - Over (2,328 decks)
11. Meria, Scholar of Antiquity - Over (3,197 decks)
12. Stangg, Echo Warrior - Over (882 decks)
13. Jasmine Boreal of the Seven - Over (1,025 decks)
14. Elas il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim - Over (4,405 decks)
15. Ratadrabik of Urborg - Over (3,416 decks)
16. Balmor, Battlemage Captain - Over (1,782 decks)
17. Jhoira, Ageless Innovator - Over (1,608 decks)
18. Nemata, Primeval Warden - Over (954 decks)
19. Astor, Bearer of Blades - Over (947 decks)
20. Cadric, Soul Kindler - Over (691 decks)
21. Ivy, Gleeful Spellthief - Over (5,966 decks)
22. Tatyova, Steward of Tides - Over (1,024 decks)
23. Zur, Eternal Schemer - Over (2,576 decks)
24. Tetsuo, Imperial Champion - Over (1,987 decks)
25. Soul of Windgrace - Over (2,774 decks)
26. Xira, the Golden Sting - Over (1,160 decks)
27. Hazezon, Shaper of Sand - Over (3,106 decks)
28. Rith, Liberated Primeval - Over (830 decks)
29. Shanna, Purifying Blade - Over (2,236 decks)
30. Dihada, Binder of Wills - Over (4,075 decks)
31. Shanid, Sleepers' Scourge - Over (1,178 decks)
32. Jared Carthalion - Over (2,399 decks)
33. Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile - Over (1,230 decks)
34. Jodah, the Unifier - Over (12,546 decks)
35. Danitha, Benalia's Hope - Under (259 decks)
36. Moira, Urborg Haunt - Under (66 decks)
37. Squee, Dubious Monarch - Under (73 decks)
38. Stenn, Paranoid Partisan - Under (454 decks)
39. Tobias, Doomed Conqueror - Under (62 decks)
40. Tura Kennerüd, Skyknight - Under (230 decks)
41. Rona, Sheoldred's Faithful - Under (499 decks)
42. Orca, Siege Demon - Under (105 decks)
43. Radha, Coalition Warlord - Under (50 decks)
44. Rulik Mons, Warren Chief - Under (380 decks)
45. Torsten, Founder of Benalia - Under (226 decks)
46. Zar Ojanen, Scion of Efrava - Under (35 decks)
47. Aron, Benalia's Ruin - Under (235 decks)
48. Najal, the Storm Runner - Under (320 decks)
49. Bortuk Bonerattle - Under (23 decks)
50. Baird, Argivian Recruiter - Under (197 decks)
51. Tori D'Avenant, Fury Rider - Under (197 decks)
52. Nael, Avizoa Aeronaut - Under (45 decks)
53. The Peregrine Dynamo - Under (456 decks)

Incorrect Picks (22)

1. Zeriam, Golden Wind - Over Under (526 decks)
2. Rosnakht, Heir of Rohgahh - Over Under (346 decks)
3. Ayesha Tanaka, Armorer - Over Under (384 decks)
4. Rasputin, the Oneiromancer - Over Under (205 decks)
5. Ertai Resurrected - Over Under (446 decks)
6. Ramirez DePietro, Pillager - Over Under (437 decks)
7. Bladewing, Deathless Tyrant - Over Under (488 decks)
8. The Lady of Otaria - Over Under (251 decks)
9. King Darien XLVIII - Over Under (512 decks)
10. Verrak, Warped Sengir - Over Under (483 decks)
11. Uurg, Spawn of Turg - Over Under (439 decks)
12. The Ever-Changing 'Dane - Over Under (323 decks)
13. Sol'Kanar the Tainted - Over Under (254 decks)
14. Jedit Ojanen, Mercenary - Over Under (371 decks)
15. Sheoldred, the Apocalypse - Under Over (6,312 decks)
16. The Raven Man - Under Over (692 decks)
17. Raff, Weatherlight Stalwart - Under Over (888 decks)
18. Vohar, Vodalian Desecrator - Under Over (1,063 decks)
19. Lagomos, Hand of Hatred - Under Over (696 decks)
20. General Marhault Elsdragon - Under Over (625 decks)
21. Ohabi Caleria - Under Over (654 decks)
22. Queen Allenal of Ruadach - Under Over (655 decks)

My Dominaria United Correct Prediction Percentage: 71%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

A fairly disappointing showing, all things considered. Usually I feast on sets with tons of uncommon commanders, since so many are such obvious Unders, yet Dominaria United was more of a challenge.

Still, it was a sweet set, so I can't be too disappointed. Next time we return to this plane, I hope there won't be any Praetors around. I couldn't handle another pick as bad as Sheoldred.

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.