(Ghalta, Stampede Tyrant | Art by Lars Grant-West)

Getting Lost in the Ixalanian Sauce

Just kidding. You're not lost—you're reading The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become a year after their release. One year ago, I worked on one of my least favorite sets of recent history, The Lost Caverns of Ixalan. Today, we'll review my predictions—and I'll be maintaining a grumpy aura while we do it.

Reminder on how this all works: Our line is 1,200 decks, so I gave each commander an "Over" or "Under" that line. You can read last year's article, but no worries if you'd rather not; I'll be quoting it throughout.

Ready? Let's go spelunking.

Overall Impressions

Based on that rocky introduction (get it?), you might've thought this set wasn't particularly popular. That, however, wasn't the case at all. Just check out these stats:

• Total number of commanders: 46
• Total number of commander decks: 127,163
• Average commander deck count: 2,764
• Most decks: Pantlaza, Sun-Favored (16,476 decks)
• Fewest decks: Breeches, Eager Pillager (112 decks)

You don't need me to tell you that's a lot of decks. Compare it to our last set, Doctor Who, if you don't believe me, which had almost twice as many commanders with 73, yet half the decks with 61,763. Plus, Pantlaza, Sun-Favored became a breakout star, coming super close to unseating Gishath, Sun's Avatar as the format's de facto Dinosaur commander.

So yeah, a lot of players liked this set. But I didn't. Allow me to explain.

For one, I think my expectations were set too high. I suppose that's not the set's fault, yet it's true nonetheless. Why were my expectations high? Well, if you played back in 2017, you'll remember original Ixalan dropping on the scene in September and, to paraphrase the great philosopher Keith Moon, going over like a lead balloon. True, it did give us two mega-popular kindred commanders in the aforementioned Gishath, Sun's Avatar and Admiral Beckett Brass. The next most popular commander is Tishana, Voice of Thunder with 576 decks, which should tell you all you need to know.

But it's more than just the flops of the head honchos—original Ixalan contributed little to EDH, even in the 99. Unclaimed Territory? Sure. Vanquisher's Banner? Fine. Revel in Riches? Fun. Otherwise, the best I can find is Hostage Taker. That's not good enough, especially when your contributions to Limited and Standard at the time were also unimpressive. I remember liking the vibrant colors of the world, especially on the feathers of the Dinosaurs and the adornment of the Merfolk. Other than that, I was out on Ixalan.

Then everything changed in 2022 with Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. That set proved Wizards could rework a plane that didn't function in its first incarnation. NEO is actually one of my favorite sets ever, which was a welcome surprise after only mildly enjoying original Kamigawa. In fact, that set was such a success that I convinced myself they'd work the same magic with Lost Caverns.

No. No they didn't. At least not for me. I found many of LCI's designs clunky and overcomplicated, or in the case of Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar, poorly worded. This issue is most glaring on the set's many double-faced cards, which feel less like cohesive designs and more like two wordy cards glued together. Like, when I've finally finished reading the front side of Aclazotz, Deepest Betrayal, I've forgotten it has a back side. Plus, this set's subterranean flavor never really hit for me. Stalactites in every picture don't fill me with a sense of wonder, you know?

Oh, and let's not forget—the Caves subtheme was a complete dud. Despite looking promising during preview season, Caves were completely under-supported, not to mention underpowered. There are only 14 Cave decks on the site as I write this, and I doubt that number will increase in the coming years.

But enough complaining. Let's review some of my predictions.

My Solid Selections

I didn't like many commanders from LCI, but this one certainly caught my eye:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 8,464

For a mono-red damage-based commander, this guy actually does some interesting stuff. Last year I noted the following:

"The front-side text is hard to parse, but basically it means any red damage dealt outside combat gets upgraded to four. So your Leyline of Lightning pings for four, your Lightning Bolt becomes a kicked Burst Lightning, etc. That's just as nasty as it sounds—and the number only goes higher the more you can boost Ojer's power."

Both those cards appear in your average Axonil deck, along with stuff that pumps its power like Unleash Fury. Most cards in the deck, however, are pingers like Thermo-Alchemist and Kessig Flamebreather. Makes sense, considering four damage per activation adds up in a hurry. I've yet to play against this deck, and I hope I never do. Same goes for this next commander.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 16,476

Yes, that's a lot of decks—good enough for Rank #20, to be exact. (It's somehow still not good enough to surpass Gishath, Sun's Avatar, but still.) I know your opponents will sometimes hit irrelevant spells when they Discover, but it never feels like that; free spells always hurt so much more. I noted Pantlaza's potential last year:

"...He's a face commander, he gives your first Dinosaur each turn pseudo-Cascade, and he has some well-groomed plumage."

The plumage remains a big selling point, though I'm unsure there's much else to say about the average deck composition. Just pack your list with the extras from Jurassic Park, then cast them and watch your opponents weep. Hey, speaking of Jurassic Park...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 4,607

This was the best performing of the Jurassic World collection, edging out Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid by a few hundred decks. My take on the card was a little lengthy, but I'd like to provide it in full, since I think it's fairly interesting in retrospect.

"Keyword soup is fun to build around. Just check the success of Akroma, Vision of Ixidor (2,661 total decks, as I write this). That said, a closer comparison is probably Rayami, First of the Fallen, who only leads 783 decks, despite being around for years. Which commander will Indominus Rex resemble more? My guess is Akroma. Indominus offers far more control over its abilities than does Rayami, and it even replaces the cards you pitch. Furthermore, free discarding provides additional synergy in and of itself, especially with Madness and reanimator strategies. Sign me up for this experiment, please."

Glad I called that right. After all, Sultai offers an amazing array of multi-keyword all-stars, including Kefnet the Mindful, Vampire Nighthawk, and Nightveil Predator. It appears the average deckbuilder isn't trying the Madness and reanimator strats, but they'll always be there for future deck builders.

I've had firsthand experience with this next one.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 12,609

To be clear, I haven't built this deck. I borrowed a version from my pal Jeremy the other day, and I was pleasantly surprised by how fun it was. When you cast Hakbal on a board full of Merfolk, you essentially flip a coin for each one. If heads, draw a card. If tails, pump your creature and Surveil 1. The funny part was, I'd often forget about that second paragraph of text, yet the card was still nasty. No wonder 12k players built this one.

But enough with the positivity. Let's check out some of my botched picks.

My Biggest Blunders

In terms of sheer numbers, this was the biggest blunder of them all:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 4,499

Perhaps I should've written "biggest blunderbuss," because I feel like that's what Andres here would be wielding. For what it worth, I think I had sound reasoning for going Under.

"The payoffs are incredible...it's the theft that's the challenge. Nihiloor, for example, not only rewards you for doing the thing—it actually does the thing itself. Plus, I already mentioned Admiral Beckett Brass, who's a hyper popular commander with the same colors, type, and general gameplan. I'm out on this Don."

Funnily enough, Admiral Beckett Brass herself appears in 64% of Andres decks. The rest of the average deck composition is fairly predictable: Cards that steal stuff, either permanently or temporarily. It's the latter that surprise me, since temporary theft seems tough to leverage into long-term gain, even with the bonuses provided by Andres. Bottom line: EDH players like stealing their friends' stuff. No wonder Pirates are such a popular type.

But what about scientists?

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 947

Among the six Jurassic World commanders (I'm counting Blue and Owen as one), Henry was the only to go Under. For clues as to why, let's start with my take from last year.

"This commander has excellent flavor, and it tastes even better with cards that make the classic 3/3 green Beast token, of which there are many."

Huh, not sure where I was going with that. I suppose my reasoning was that those tokens are pretty much free fodder for activations, while still fulfilling both requirements. Problem is, one must mix in a fair number of Humans in there as well, and that's a delicate balance, especially for what amounts to a mediocre payoff. Wish I'd recognized that earlier! Speaking of which...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 230

You know those moments when you look back on your life and think to yourself, What was I thinking? I'm doing that right now. Fortunately, I wrote my thoughts down.

"I know it's capped at mana value three, but discover is basically upgraded cascade, and cascade is hyper popular in EDH. Just ask Averna, the Chaos Bloom (2,914 decks), Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder (5,656 decks), and Maelstrom Wanderer (4,522 decks)."

I asked them, and they lied to me. I guess risking your 4/4 in combat just to flip a free Etali's Favor isn't Over material. Again, I ask myself the following: What was I thinking?

Recap

Correct Picks (32)

1. Ojer Taq, Deepest Foundation - Over (1,284 decks)
2. Aclazotz, Deepest Betrayal - Over (1,627 decks)
3. Francisco, Fowl Marauder - Over (4,065 total decks)
4. Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might - Over (8,464 decks)
5. Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar - Over (1,943 decks)
6. Sovereign Okinec Ahau - Over (3,527 decks)
7. Amalia Benavides Aguirre - Over (3,225 decks)
8. Carmen, Cruel Skymarcher - Over (3,111 decks)
9. Clavileño, First of the Blessed - Over (5,932 decks)
10. Ian Malcolm, Chaotician - Over (2,249 decks)
11. Hakbal of the Surging Soul - Over (12,609 decks)
12. The Mycotyrant - Over (6,875 decks)
13. Xolatoyac, the Smiling Flood - Over (1,908 decks)
14. Admiral Brass, Unsinkable - Over (4,879 decks)
15. Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid - Over (4,089 decks)
16. Pantlaza, Sun-Favored - Over (16,476 decks)
17. Ellie and Alan, Paleontologists - Over (1,331 decks)
18. Tetzin, Gnome Champion - Over (3,225 decks)
19. Indominus Rex, Alpha - Over (4,607 decks)
20. Xavier Sal, Infested Captain - Over (4,378 decks)
21. Owen Grady, Raptor Trainer + Blue, Loyal Raptor - Over (2,729 decks)
22. Akal Pakal, First Among Equals - Under (178 decks)
23. Malcolm, Alluring Scoundrel - Under (1,063 decks)
24. Inti, Seneschal of the Sun - Under (674 decks)
25. Abuelo, Ancestral Echo - Under (727 decks)
26. Uchbenbak, the Great Mistake - Under (171 decks)
27. Itzquinth, Firstborn of Gishath - Under (145 decks)
28. Kellan, Daring Traveler - Under (228 decks)
29. Bartolomé del Presidio - Under (1,139 decks)
30. Akawalli, the Seething Tower - Under (321 decks)
31. Nicanzil, Current Conductor - Under (725 decks)
32. Huatli, Poet of Unity - Under (1,032 decks)

Incorrect Picks (14)

1. Ojer Pakpatiq, Deepest Epoch - Over Under (1,186 decks)
2. Breeches, Eager Pillager - Over Under (112 decks)
3. Ghalta, Stampede Tyrant - Over Under (824 decks)
4. Ojer Kaslem, Deepest Growth - Over Under (1,119 decks)
5. Vito, Fanatic of Aclazotz - Over Under (764 decks)
6. Captain Storm, Cosmium Raider - Over Under (736 decks)
7. Caparocti Sunborn - Over Under (230 decks)
8. Henry Wu, InGen Geneticist - Over Under (947 decks)
9. The Ancient One - Under Over (2,282 decks)
10. Zoyowa Lava-Tongue - Under Over (1,432 decks)
11. Saheeli, the Sun's Brilliance - Under Over (1,443 decks)
12. Anim Pakal, Thousandth Moon - Under Over (3,521 decks)
13. Don Andres, the Renegade - Under Over (4,499 decks)
14. Wayta, Trainer Prodigy - Under Over (3,132 decks)

My Lost Caverns of Ixalan Correct Prediction Percentage: 70%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

Despite disliking this set as a whole, I actually did an okay job predicting its popularity. Well, at least I did better than our last set, a performance that still fills me with the deepest shame.

Here's hoping for some better sets in the year to come. I mean, surely it won't be an endless slew of IP brand crossovers that bleed into every format, right?

...Right?

Read more:

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Foundations Commanders

Back to Basics - The Top 10 Most Played Gruul Cards in Commander

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.