(Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines | Art by Martina Fačková)

One More Time

Welcome back to a dentists' dream...or nightmare? Whichever it is, there are a lot of teeth on Phyrexia, and we're about to revisit them.

Welcome back to The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become one year after release. It's already been 365+ for Phyrexia: All Will Be One, so it's time to review my picks from early 2023. The exact anniversary was February 10, 2024, and the final numbers in this review have been recorded from that date.

The line for this set was 600, so commanders got an "Over" if I thought it would finish with 601 commander decks or better, and an "Under" if below. I also had one "Can't-Miss Pick," which is my most confident selection of the bunch.

Ready to delve into the world of demented dentistry? Me neither, but here we go.

Overall Impressions

When I'm not EDHing, I'm drafting, and the Draft format for this set was legendarily bad. That unfortunately skews my feelings about this set, which isn't really the set's fault. It actually introduced a pretty cool crop of commanders, such as a highly popular cycle of monocolor legends, a big-time typal payoff, and a new twist on a polarizing yet iconic mechanic.

So, overall, this was a great set for EDH, despite what the 40-card weirdos might say. Just check out these stats:

• Total number of commanders: 34
• Total number of commander decks: 73,587
• Average commander deck count: 2,164
• Most decks: Urtet, Remnant of Memnarch (9,193 decks)
• Fewest decks: Rhuk, Hexgold Nabber (67 decks)

That's an improvement on our previous set, Brothers' War, which generated 48,013 total decks across 30 commanders for an average of 1,600 per commander.

Now here's a theory I'm starting to develop based on this set: Maybe returning worlds have a leg up (or in the case of the mites in this set, several legs up). Looking at ONE's most popular commanders got me thinking about it. Look near the top of the set page and you'll see names like Atraxa, Elesh Norn, Ezuri, Thrun, and Glissa. What do they all have in common, aside from being hard to spell? They're all returning characters!

My thesis is, returning to planes means returning to casts of characters, and many of those returning characters seem to inspire deckbuilders. For some, this might be a Vorthosian impulse. For others, it might be an opportunity to build or rebuild decks based around characters that didn't work in the past.

For example, maybe you always wanted to build a Thrun, the Last Troll deck. Why? I don't know. Perhaps you're a troll yourself. Anyhoo, now that there's an improved version of the character in Thrun, Breaker of Silence, you can use it to update your deck.

It's an interesting pattern I hadn't fully considered until this set. Of the five returning commanders I mentioned, all four went Over, most by a wide margin. Something to keep an eye on for the future.

Now that we've taken a wide look at the format, it's time to drill down into the specifics.

My Solid Selections

We'll begin with the set's most popular commander, which was not the one I expected...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 9,193

Before this set's release, if you'd told me we'd be returning to Phyrexia and getting new versions of Atraxa and Elesh Norn, plus a Rat typal commander, I would've guessed one of those would become the set's biggest hit. Not some Myr.

Still, I shouldn't act like this is a complete surprise. Here's what I wrote last year:

"Urtet feels like the premier Myr commander, especially since all but Brudiclad, Telchor Engineer fail to even name the creature type itself. Granted, Myr aren't the deepest of creature types, but when you can slap three +1/+1 counters on them each turn, their scarcity shouldn't matter."

The operant word here is "scarcity." Urtet's Top Cards list is dominated by a cycle of commons that ramps you while simultaneously testing your knowledge of base metals. Then there's also Palladium Myr. Does "palladium" appear on the periodic table?

Next up, let's get into those aforementioned big hitters.

Last year's predictions: Overs for all three

Final deck counts: 8991, 5244, and 3975 respectively

I described picking Atraxa as my Can't-Miss Pick as "too easy," and I stand by it. However, one's deckbuilding approach with this commander can get a lot more interesting. Many players lean on blink effects to draw max cards, while others opt for the tried-and-true goodstuff approach. I'm even tinkering with a Delirium build as I write this. Whatever you do, Atraxa decks ask for a good distribution of card types so that big draws become more likely, which in turn encourages offbeat card selections. I like it.

Elesh Norn offers some overlap with the Grand Unifier, though she's clearly a lot more linear. Fortunately, there's no shortage of enter-the-battlefield effects in mono-white.

Despite describing Karumonix as "having a name that sounds like an allergy medication," there's a lot more to this drug—I mean, commander. Perhaps its most interesting trait is that it signaled a big tribe coming several months later in Wilds of Eldraine. Seriously, three of the Rat King's 10 High Synergy cards are from WOE. I smell a rat...but honestly, it smells pretty good.

And now we go from one monocolor commander to another...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 4,153

Here's what I wrote about this one last year:

"The closest comp I could devise is Toralf, God of Fury, from Kaldheim, a commander who just squeaked Over with 660 decks. Solphim promises to become far more popular."

Solophim's performance dwarfed Toralf's, though they do indeed have many cards in common, including Brash Taunter, Tectonic Hazard, and Stuffy Doll. I also later noted that Solophim "stacks with other damage-doublers," which is probably why Dictate of the Twin Gods and Fiery Emancipation rank so highly (though admittedly, the latter is technically a damage tripler).

The next card I'd like to highlight is another Over, even though it feels like an underperformer.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1874

Look, tripling the line is good. I'm not denying that. All I'm saying is, there was good reason to think it would do even better. Here's my take from last year...

"Mondrak appears to be a giant steering wheel, which is great news for any young Phyrexians enrolled in Driver's Ed. It's also a harder-to-remove version of Anointed Procession, a card that's been a format staple for years. I'd say this card has certainly earned the right-of-way."

Aside from that nonsense about driver's education, I think that's some solid analysis. After all, Anointed Procession appears in almost 160,000 decks, which represents a 9% share of the metagame. Getting that effect in the command zone seems like it would drive bigger numbers.

This somewhat muted performance has me worried for my Over prediction on Ojer Taq, Deepest Foundation, a card that does the same thing as Mondrak, only with an extra multiplier and without the steering wheel. Ojer Taq currently sits about halfway to the mark (remember, my line doubled to 1200 in April of last year). We'll see if OT gets there.

Now for the most enlightening (and embarrassing) part of the article. Here's where I messed up.

My Big Mistakes

We'll begin with the cards I was a little too negative about, starting with a guy I described as a "renegade lice."

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1229

It's not often one predicts the general composition of a deck, yet still gets the prediction wrong. I somehow did that, which is in some ways more impressive than being right, wouldn't you say? Here's my take from last year...

"...[Skrelv seems] difficult to build around; one poison counter per attack isn't much, and there aren't many mono-white Infect payoffs, even with this set's Toxic additions."

Funnily enough, nine of Skrelv's 10 High Synergy cards are Toxic additions from this set. Furthermore, half those High Synergy cards are what could be charitably described as "draft chaff." This leads me to believe I undervalued not just the commander, but the Poison/Toxic archetype itself. Just look at our next card.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1041

Bernie from Weekend at Bernie's is of course the original corpse puppet, but Venser comes in a close second. After initially describing the card as "not bad," I went into further detail on my decision:

"A 3/3 token doesn't have much impact, and though flying and lifelink are great abilities, you'll need a constant stream of Proliferation just to get them."

I think I got a little too fixated on granting the keywords to Venser's Hollow Sentinel token. It's probably better to give them to Infect and Toxic creatures like Myr Convert and Plague Myr, which can peck in for more poison. (Both those cards appear in many Venser decks, in case you were wondering.) Also, with several sets offering several cards with Proliferate, we've got a critical mass to choose from.

This next commander was a juggernaut of a missed pick:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2298

"Juggernauts are amusing. Colorless commanders are not."

That's how I started my analysis, which was, in hindsight, not great. Of course, I was only playing the odds of history.

"In fact, there are only three commanders on EDHREC who even have quadruple digits (and many have been around a very long time). Of course, the issue is the mana base, which must be composed entirely of colorless lands."

I've come to realize this was an overstatement, and not just because it makes me sound better now that I've already screwed up the pick. We don't get many colorless commanders, so I hadn't realized just how many non-basic land options we now have. Whether it's Urza's Saga, Mirrex, The Grey Havens, or some other sweet colorless land, you've got numerous powerful options to choose from, and they'll punish you far less than decks requiring colors from their mana bases.

My next selection probably could've benefitted from a little more critical thinking:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 388

Despite my earlier point about returning characters, this is one that didn't quite get there. That's surprising, since it combines Cats and Equipment, two themes that have proven popular in the past. Maybe my issues started with my cursory evaluation, the entirety of which you'll find below:

"I've got two words for you: Colossus Hammer."

And hey, I wasn't wrong. The Hammer appears in 78% of these decks. However, if you browsed Kemba decks lately, you might've noticed the only EDHREC writer writing about it was me, last year. Never a good sign.

The final commander I'd like to discuss is a bad one. A Slobad one.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 400

Here's how I commenced last year's analysis:

"Bad Slobad here is eerily similar to Illuminor Szeras from Warhammer 40K. Since I gave that card an Under, you might expect me to do the same here."

Why yes, 2023 Kyle, I would. So then where did you (or I, or we?) go wrong?

"Not so sure I will. The big difference is that Slobad sacrifices artifacts, which are notorious for costing less than the printed number due to mechanics like Affinity and Improvise."

Though there are fewer viable Affinity and Improvise payoffs than you'd think, that's not the real problem with Slobad. The problem is the limitation on where you can put the mana, which I didn't properly recognize until now. Rather than pumping it into a Fireball, for example, you can only use it on other artifacts, which greatly limits its applications. Think of it like a gift card to Arby's. I mean, yes, it's technically free capital...but you'd rather spend it somewhere—anywhere—else.

Recap

Correct Picks (27)

1. Geth, Thane of Contracts - Under (84 decks)
2. Kinzu of the Bleak Coven - Under (202 decks)
3. Vraan, Executioner Thane - Under (109 decks)
4. Rhuk, Hexgold Nabber - Under (67 decks)
5. Migloz, Maze Crusher - Under (459 decks)
6. Melira, the Living Cure - Under (135 decks)
7. Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines - Over (5244 decks)
8. Mondrak, Glory Dominus - Over (1874 decks)
9. Tekuthal, Inquiry Dominus - Over (1631 decks)
10. Drivnod, Carnage Dominus - Over (758 decks)
11. Karumonix, the Rat King - Over (3975 decks)
12. Chiss-Goria, Forge Tyrant - Over (2594 decks)
13. Solphim, Mayhem Dominus - Over (4153 decks)
14. Thrun, Breaker of Silence - Over (2133 decks)
15. Zopandrel, Hunger Dominus - Over (810 decks)
16. Malcator, Purity Overseer - Over (757 decks)
17. Kethek, Crucible Goliath - Over (624 decks)
18. Ria Ivor, Bane of Bladehold - Over (1061 decks)
19. Ovika, Enigma Goliath - Over (3856 decks)
20. Jor Kadeen, First Goldwarden - Over (635 decks)
21. Neyali, Suns' Vanguard - Over (2276 decks)
22. Otharri, Suns' Glory - Over (2271 decks)
23. Ezuri, Stalker of Spheres - Over (2651 decks)
24. Ixhel, Scion of Atraxa - Over (5177 decks)
25. Vishgraz, the Doomhive - Over (4166 decks)
26. Urtet, Remnant of Memnarch - Over (9193 decks)
27. Atraxa, Grand Unifier - Over (8991 decks)

Incorrect Picks (7)

1. Skrelv, Defector Mite - Under Over (1229 decks)
2. Unctus, Grand Metatect - Under Over (1008 decks)
   
3. Venser, Corpse Puppet - Under Over (1041 decks)
4. Glissa Sunslayer - Under Over (1347 decks)
5. Graaz, Unstoppable Juggernaut - Under Over (2298 decks)
6. Kemba, Kha Enduring - Over Under (388 decks)
7. Slobad, Iron Goblin - Over Under (400 decks)

My Phyrexia Correct Prediction Percentage: 79%

My Overall Percentage: 76%

After six straight sets of incremental growth, we finally have a dropoff of eight percentage points. Hoping this trend doesn't continue into our next review set, March of the Machine, since hardcore fans will recall that's where we doubled our line from 600 to 1200. Here's hoping the results weren't disastrous!

Read more:

The Over/Under - Predicting The Popularity Of Murders At Karlov Manor And Clue Commanders

The Nitpicking Nerds - The Compleat Precon Review for Phyrexia: All Will Be One

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.