Call the Spirit DragonsCall the Spirit Dragons | Art by Liiga Smilshkalne

Greetings. You're reading The Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new Dragon commanders will become. Disclaimer: We technically do other creature types as well. In fact, we review every new commander. But for today, those flying lizards are the name of the game — and the whole set, for that matter.

Yes, a little over a year ago, I guessed Over or Under a line of 1,200 decks for all 26 commanders in Tarkir: Dragonstorm. I also made one Can't-Miss Pick, which was my most confident selection of all. Now it's time to check my work. You can relive the glory of last year's review at this link, or you can keep on reading, since I'll be pulling pertinent quotes throughout.

And now, without further ado, let's get to those Dragons!

Overall Thoughts

Just like the more recent Lorwyn Eclipsed, I had high hopes for this set. Original Khans of Tarkir holds a special nostalgia for me, being the first set that tapped into the wedges, made famous by the Commander 2011 precon decks (by the way, I wrote about those decks here).

For me, these are the most interesting color identities in the game. They're formed by taking all five enemy color pairs (found by combining a color with any non-neighboring colors) and adding either of their remaining ally colors. For example, blue and green form Simic. Simic combines with red to form Temur or black to form my personal favorite, Sultai. They're often known as "wedges" because of the shape they create when playing connect-the-dots on the MTG pentagram.

Unlike the familiar ally-based combinations of the shards made famous by Shards of Alara, I find the contrasts of these wedges — better known on Tarkir as clans — far more interesting. Here you get the endless value of Sultai, the savage brutality of Temur, the technical proficiency of Jeskai, the martial glory of Abzan, and the wanton destruction of Mardu. Compare that to Bant, which does defenders and Angus MackenzieAngus Mackenzie.

With all that said, Tarkir: Dragonstorm bore the weight of expectation. I wasn't the only one who enjoyed original Tarkir, and it had been a full nine years since a full-fledged return to the plane. So, did this set live up to the hype?

Sort of. And I'll warn you: My gripes were not entirely related to Commander.

See, Khans of Tarkir is regarded as one of the greatest Draft formats of all time. And, at the risk of admitting to cheating on one of my favorite formats, I love Draft about as much as I love Commander. And in Draft, those clans I love so much barely existed.

That's not totally fair. They existed insofar as you could see them in packs and select them before they went by. There were three-color cards aplenty, true. But they were completely overshadowed by five-color piles, headlined by a card Commander players are going to laugh at me for calling overpowered, even though it totally was...

Yes, Dragonstorm GlobeDragonstorm Globe dominated the Draft format. Thanks to that thing, you could play all five colors with ease, and you could pump up any Dragons you drafted while you were at it. The question became this: Why stick to three colors when you can draft five? And the answer: Just draft five.

What does any of this have to do with Commander? Well, honestly, not much. Dragonstorm GlobeDragonstorm Globe appears in 48,037 decks as I write this, which is good, but not great. I just mention this to illustrate my bias with this set: Much as I wanted to like it, I couldn't get over just how disappointing it was from a Draft perspective.

But if I may look beyond my bias, I will admit that Tarkir: Dragonstorm was an excellent format for Commander. Of the 26 new commanders from the set, I'd argue almost all of them were interesting, if not downright sweet to build around. Furthermore, this crop of precon decks were some of the best we've ever seen — and there were five of them! I myself purchased the Sultai Arisen deck, and I must say, it had some amazing contents. I mean, Life from the LoamLife from the Loam? Who designed that card?

Also, just look at these numbers for a second...

• Total number of commanders: 26
• Approx. number of commander decks: 192,000
• Average commander deck count: 7,400
• Most decks: Teval, the Balanced ScaleTeval, the Balanced Scale (29,706 decks)
• Fewest decks: Surrak, Elusive HunterSurrak, Elusive Hunter (177 decks)

Dragonstorm was a massive hit! You'd have to go all the way back to Bloomburrow to find a set with more total commanders — and even then, Dragonstorm nearly surpassed it, despite boasting eight fewer commanders. So far as I can tell, this wasn't just one of the most popular sets on our site from the past few years — it's one of the most popular ever. 

Chalk it up to those three-color clans, which have always been sweet. Credit those precons, which were excellent. And don't forget the simple fact that players love Dragons. After all, they're EDHREC's most popular creature type by a 6,000 deck margin. Take that, Elves.

So, here's my takeaway: I've got to shelve my personal bias. Just because I got whomped by Dragonstorm GlobeDragonstorm Globe a few times (a lot of times), that shouldn't diminish my enthusiasm for this set. And although it didn't live up to the nostalgic expectations of original Khans, it still came pretty darn close. So let's look at the commanders that came closest.

My Best Predictions

Let's begin with the set's most popular commander:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 29,706

Teval, the Balanced ScaleTeval, the Balanced Scale was the face commander on the aforementioned Sultai Arisen precon deck, so it's no surprise it performed well individually. But you know what did surprise me? Teval's now performing so well that it's the 11th most popular commander on the site.

The whole site. That's more decks than classics like Lathril, Blade of the ElvesLathril, Blade of the Elves, or Kenrith, the Returned KingKenrith, the Returned King, or even Nekusar, the MindrazerNekusar, the Mindrazer, who was an absolute stud back in my day. For an inkling about why, here's my analysis from last year:

"Regarding the attacking trigger, it's not just a land from among the three you milled — it's any land sitting in your graveyard. That land will also yield a free zombie, as will delving, reanimating, flashbacking, and countless other -ings. Not sure what any of that has to do with balancing scales, but I'm here for it."

All such cards appear in the average Teval deck, along with a whole lot of cards from the precon itself, which returns us to an earlier point: Those decks were juiced.

And you know what else was juiced? Our next commander.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 17,631

I mention this treatment of Zurgo because I actually think the other one is way cooler:

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 16,797

Now look. Both Zurgo StormrenderZurgo Stormrender and Zurgo, Thunder's DecreeZurgo, Thunder's Decree are popular. Very popular. And only about 1,000 decks separated the two, when all was said and done. Yet, Stormrender still ranked higher. Here's what I thought of ol' Stormy:

"The original Zurgo, Zurgo HelmsmasherZurgo Helmsmasher, has a special place in my helm (and heart). This iteration ain’t bad, either. Instant-speed sac outlets let you choose between drawing and damaging, though either option should prove smashisfactory."

Hmm. A clumsy pun. And a little sparse, overall. Whereas my take on Thunder's Decree...

"Zurgo is quite the promising commander. His obvious synergy is with Mobilize, since your tokens stick around beyond the end step, yet there are so many more powerful cards that also benefit. A brief list that is totally off the top of my head and not at all stolen from randos on Reddit..."

(And then I listed a whole bunch of weirdo token makers.)

I think that difference in detail is telling. For my money, Thunder's Decree is the more interesting of the two, yet Stormrender earned bigger numbers simply because he's the face commander of the Mardu Surge deck. So it usually goes, but it does make me lament. Are the sweeter set commanders getting overshadowed by the stock on the shelves at Walmart? Are the commanders from the base set doomed to look less powerful than their precon counterparts, regardless of truth?

These are the sorts of pointless conundrums that keep me up at night. Them, and my cat.

And hey, speaking of cats...this set had no cats. But it did have a handful of Unders, like this oaf:

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 958

I mention Kotis, Sibsig ChampionKotis, Sibsig Champion here because all the precon commanders went Over — except this one. It would've been easy to give everyone the Over and move on, but I even called the lone exception, which feels nice.

But you know what doesn't feel nice? Our next section.

My Worst Predictions

I did pretty well with this set — with a few notable exceptions. Like this one:

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 5,256

Wondering why I went Under on this guy? So am I. Last year I wrote...

"Felothar requires you to sacrifice bodies, which you could've added counters to. Granted, you can sac noncreature tokens, like Clues, or stuff that actually wants to be sacrificed, like Ichor WellspringIchor Wellspring. Yet that requires a heck of a lot of setup just to get going. To quote the great Edna Mode, 'It's too much, darling. Too much!'"

Tough beat to invoke a fashion icon like Edna Mode on an incorrect pick. Nonetheless, my error was obvious: the setup cost isn't as steep as I feared. It's not that these decks run tons of sac fodder; browsing through Felothar, Dawn of the AbzanFelothar, Dawn of the Abzan's average list, I can hardly find any. It's more that there's such a surplus of +1/+1 counter synergies that they make any sacrifice, however costly, worth the loss. I mean, when you've got Abzan FalconerAbzan Falconer out, you probably didn't need that Avacyn's PilgrimAvacyn's Pilgrim for lethal.

Next up, in a set about triple-color stuff, a mono-color two-drop sure does stick out. Remember Taigam, Master OpportunistTaigam, Master Opportunist?

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,748

Last year, I wrote the following:

"I used to think Suspend was a popular mechanic, but after the pitiful performance of almost all the Suspend cards in Doctor Who, I'm less certain. That's why I consulted my pals Jason and Shane, the official Over/Under Consiglieres, for their takes.

Their takes: Same as mine. Taigam is cool in the 99, but not cool enough to lead 1,200 decks."

I refuse to blame my teammates for this loss. Who do you think I am, LeBron? Instead, I'll blame Doctor Who, which remains my worst performance in Over/Under history. F that set. As you can tell, I am totally over it.

Last thing: My pal Drew built this deck shortly after I published my predictions, and if I'd seen it in action maybe a week earlier, I might've decided otherwise. Drew's always got like, 10 cards in exile on any given turn, each with its own dice, and though none of us can quite keep up with what he's doing, he always seems to be having a good time.

Last commander to discuss for this set:

My prediction: Under

Final deck count: 7,330

To paraphrase legendary orator Jiminy Glick, what's my beef with this commander? Let's dig into the archives.

"Compared to original Elsha (Elsha of the InfiniteElsha of the Infinite), this version is a scrub. I mean, it's basically a souped-up Monastery MentorMonastery Mentor, which might've been impressive if we were playing Modern, like, a decade ago."

What's Modern again? Also, where did this commander come from? Oh yeah. The precons. That helps, and it certainly doesn't hurt that, onerous though it may be to track all those prowess triggers, they really add up, especially when you're playing additional power-boosting cards like Jeskai AscendancyJeskai Ascendancy, of which there are many in the average Elsha deck.

So yeah. Bit of a misstep there on my part.

Recap

Correct Picks (21)

2. Neriv, Heart of the StormNeriv, Heart of the Storm -
3. Zurgo StormrenderZurgo Stormrender - Over (17,631 decks)
4. Zurgo, Thunder's DecreeZurgo, Thunder's Decree - Over (16,797 decks)
5. Eshki, Temur's RoarEshki, Temur's Roar - Over (11,379 decks)
6. Ureni of the UnwrittenUreni of the Unwritten - Over (16,837 decks)
7. Betor, Ancestor's VoiceBetor, Ancestor's Voice - Over (14,088 decks)
8. Betor, Kin to AllBetor, Kin to All - Over (8,055 decks)
9. Felothar the SteadfastFelothar the Steadfast - Over (16,033 decks)
10. Narset, Jeskai WaymasterNarset, Jeskai Waymaster - Over (2,382 decks)
11. Shiko and Narset, UnifiedShiko and Narset, Unified - Over (7,626 decks)
12. Shiko, Paragon of the WayShiko, Paragon of the Way - Over (3,095 decks)
13. Kotis, the FangkeeperKotis, the Fangkeeper - Over (15,953 decks)
14. Can't-Miss Pick (5,350 decks)
15. Teval, the Balanced ScaleTeval, the Balanced Scale - Over (29,706 decks)
16. Anafenza, Unyielding LineageAnafenza, Unyielding Lineage - Under (298 decks)
17. Sidisi, Regent of the MireSidisi, Regent of the Mire - Under (686 decks)
18. Sarkhan, Dragon AscendantSarkhan, Dragon Ascendant - Under (1,138 decks)
19. Tersa LightshatterTersa Lightshatter - Under (211 decks)
20. Surrak, Elusive HunterSurrak, Elusive Hunter - Under (177 decks)
21. Kotis, Sibsig ChampionKotis, Sibsig Champion - Under (958 decks)

Incorrect Picks (5)

1. Taigam, Master OpportunistTaigam, Master Opportunist - Under Over (1,748 decks)
2. Eshki DragonclawEshki Dragonclaw - Under Over (5,309 decks)
3. Ureni, the Song UnendingUreni, the Song Unending - Under Over (2,252 decks)
4. Felothar, Dawn of the AbzanFelothar, Dawn of the Abzan - Under Over (5,256 decks)
5. Elsha, Threefold MasterElsha, Threefold Master - Under Over (7,330 decks)

My Tarkir: Dragonstorm Correct Prediction Percentage: 81%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

On a bit of a hot streak of late. Let's see if I can keep it going with our next review set, and a highlight of 2025: Final Fantasy. Prepare for a novella.

Ed. Note: this piece was written in late May, and Teval has gained more than 5,000 decks on EDHREC since then and is the 10th-most popular commander overall.