The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Commander Masters Commanders
August 2, 2023 by
Kyle Massa 
Commodore Guff | Art by Matt Stewart
Obey Your Masters
A set with only eight new commanders? What is this, 2016?
Nope, it's just a reprint set. It's also the Over/Under, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become one year after their release. Our line is 1,200 decks, so I'll assign an "Over" to commanders I think will finish beyond that mark, and an "Under" to those that should come up short. There's also one "Can't-Miss Pick" per set, which is my surefire selection (unless I get it wrong, in which case, please be kind).
Ready? Here's your (Commander) master(s) pass...
Anikthea, Hand of Erebos
A Hand of the King, eh? Let's hope she's better than Harys Swyft. (Only Game of Thrones readers will get that joke.)
Reanimating enchantments is a fairly novel effect, leading to wonky statements like, "I swing at you with my Sterling Grove." More likely, you'll be attacking with bigger threats, like Nylea's Colossus or the newly printed Nyxborn Behemoth. But no matter what's attacking, it'll have menace.
Now, menace isn't the sexiest keyword, but it is a surprisingly effective form of evasion. For example, an opponent with three blockers can only block one of your attackers, meaning the more attackers you have, the better the keyword becomes. Since Anikthea creates tokens, she can provide those extra attackers via Populate and cards like Anointed Procession. Enchantments that support tokens are a must-include, e.g., Growing Ranks.
All this stuff is plentiful, with no shortage of both token and enchantments synergies in Abzan. Anikthea will be the best Hand that Theros has ever known.
My prediction: Over
Narci, Fable Singer
"Whenever you sacrifice an enchantment, draw a card."
Huh. That's not a sentence you read very often. However, the rest of the card explains it nicely. This is another Saga commander!
I say "another" because we just received a literal God Bard in the form of Tom Bombadil from The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth, a commander who already leads a whopping 4,213 decks. By that metric, I'd say Narci has a lot to live up to.
She's up to the challenge, though, mainly due to the type of Sagas she asks for. Her payoff grows greater with bigger mana values, so while Bombadil prefers Sagas on the cheaper end, Narci wants big stuff, like The War in Heaven, The World Spell, and the newly minted Battle at the Helvault. The Read ahead subset of Sagas will also be useful, since you get an instant sacrifice if you want it.
Though there's competition in this category, Narci is interesting enough to find her own fans.
My prediction: Over
Commodore Guff
I know this guy's name is Commodore Guff, but he looks more like a middle-aged Ron Weasley to me.
Name aside, this dude's awesome. For starters, five loyalty for four mana is a great beginning total, especially if you tick up to six after casting. With your free 1/1 chump blocker, you're all but guaranteed to survive another turn, and if you don't need to block, you've essentially got a free Llanowar Elves. Whatever the case, the longer Ron sticks around, the better.
Why? Because players would probably play his static ability by itself as an enchantment, and though his -3 ability probably won't be doming opponents for big damage, drawing two or three cards for zero mana is better value than Ancestral Recall, a card that's banned in EDH.
I could only think of one downside, and it's this: Ron's color identity excludes many popular planeswalkers, including Oko, Thief of Crowns and Ashiok, Dream Render.
But that's a triviality. Weasley is still my king.
My prediction: Over
Leori, Sparktouched Hunter
If my cats had wings like Leori here, something tells me they wouldn't use them to fly. Rather, I suspect they'd use them as makeshift blankets for nap time.
That was a bad joke, but Leori isn't a joke, bad or otherwise. It's actually quite unusual. In fact, as far as I'm aware, it's the first commander in the game's history to specifically reference planeswalker types (Deification from March of the Machine: The Aftermath mentions them, but obviously that isn't a commander). PSA: a planeswalker's type is the name that appears after the dash in the typeline.
So we're left with an interesting question: How useful is this ability? Well, there are currently 142 Jeskai commanders in Magic. That's already a lot to work with. From there, I'm assuming we'll want to focus on the game's most popular characters, so we can maximize our copying potential. To that end, here's what I came up with...
- 19 Chandras
- 13 Jaces (14 if you count Space Beleren, which I do not, because it's too confusing)
- 8 Gideons
- 8 Ajanis
- 8 Teferis
If you're building this deck, you'll probably want to focus on the above 'walkers. Still, that doesn't really answer our interesting question. You can build this deck... but will players do it?
In my opinion, the setup cost is too damn high. How often does one have multiple planeswalkers in play, let alone those with overlapping types? In my experience, they're a lightning rod for attackers, especially if you're doing some additional chicanery with them. I just don't think this commander will work the way it's advertised.
My prediction: Under
Rukarumel, Biologist
May I rant for a moment? I really detest the design of this card.
To quote the great Mark Rosewater, "restrictions breed creativity." Typal themes are fun because they're a restriction. You have payoffs that require specific creature-type enablers, which restricts your selection and therefore mandates creativity. If you want to build a Boar deck, for example, part of the fun of the deckbuilding process is scouring your collection for viable oinkers.
Will your deck be a trainwreck? Yes, of course it will, but that's not the point. The point is, you get to play cards you'd otherwise never play.
Rukarumel quashes that creativity. All you need do is load your deck with powerful typal enablers, then let your commander change your best creatures into any type. You're not limited by color, either, since you have all five. Even the card's name feels bland. "Biologist"? That's it? Just "Biologist"? Can I get a flavorful adjective, maybe?
Despite this lengthy rant, I'm totally going over on this biologist. Morophon, the Boundless is its closest analog, and that thing commands 7,229 decks. Plus, as I always say, five-color commanders never go Under. You can quote me on that.
My prediction: Over
Sliver Gravemother
Putting Encore on Slivers is like serving free Guinness on St. Patty's: things are guaranteed to get wild. Imagine stacking the effect of Sliver Legion two or three times, or Megantic Sliver, or Virulent Sliver. They also stick around until the next end step, meaning the usual temporal tricks, like Obeka, Brute Chronologist and Sundial of the Infinite, will make those tokens permanent.
The "legend rule" exemption is tasty gravy, even though there aren't many legendary Slivers (five, excluding the Gravemother herself). I already mentioned how potent Sliver Legion would be, but multiple The First Slivers can be pretty nice, too.
It's been a while since we got a viable Sliver commander, and though I suspect it won't become quite as popular as its ancestors, Sliver Gravemother should do just fine.
My prediction: Over
Omarthis, Ghostfire Initiate
Other than being an avid Ugin cosplayer, Omarthis doesn't appear to have much going for itself. However, it gets far more interesting when we consider the power of Manifesting.
It is listed on the card, after all. This is one of those rare commanders you actually want to die, since if you’ve stacked enough counters, you’re essentially drawing and casting a bunch of free cards. Note that it is "counters" in general, not just +1/+1 counters, which opens the possibilities somewhat. Imagine stacking this with a bunch of counters from The Ozolith, for example.
That said, all that counter-stacking won't be trivial. Modular creatures are decent enablers, though there aren't many of them and they demand more artifact creatures, which limits the viability of nonartifact colorless bangers, like Kozilek, Butcher of Truth or Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, which you'd otherwise want to use.
Overall, this guy feels pretty scattered. Even its own precon doesn’t support it enough, which doesn’t bode well for its future success.
My prediction: Under
Zhulodok, Void Gorger
Wait a second... I thought we defeated the Eldrazi. Can somebody text the Gatewatch?
Zhulodok is a fairly straightforward value commander, with shades of Maelstrom Wanderer and Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty (leading 3,872 and 2,924 decks, respectively). The real challenge comes from Zhulodok's color identity, since colorless is the most restrictive in the entire format. If it wants 1,200 decks, this thing had better bring the goods.
Fortunately for the Eldrazi contingent, I think it does. Using Affinity cards, like Mycosynth Golem and Myr Enforcer, are a good start, since they trigger Zhulodok without costing the full 7+. Emerge would've been a similarly nice mechanic, only it always requires a colored activation cost. Nonetheless, Zhulodok also functions as a nice Eldrazi typal commander, making cards like Not of This World and Conduit of Ruin even better. Oh, and Darksteel Monolith from the precon is tailor-made for this thing.
Overall, I think players are going to gorge on Zhulodok.
My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)
Recap
Over (5)
Under (2)
Can't-Miss Pick
Tales of Middle-earth had over 100 commanders, so it's nice to get a lighter set here. Go enjoy it!
Kyle Massa
Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.
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