The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Dr. Who Commanders
The First Doctor | Art by Kieran Yanner
Mama Called the Doctor and the Doctor Said...
Ah yes, another Universes Beyond IP I know next to nothing about. I apologize in advance, Doctor Who fans.
You're tuning into The Over/Under, by the way, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become one year from their release. Our line is 1,200 decks, so an "Over" means I predict it'll end its year above that line, while "Under" means below. I'll also do one "Can't-Miss Pick," which is my opportunity to embarrass myself if I get it wrong.
Ready to step into that phone booth thingy and presumably go somewhere interesting? Let's do it.
Astrid Peth
Food and Clue tokens? Yes. Explore? No. Unless this mechanic returns with a bigger bang in Lost Caverns of Ixalan, I can't imagine this will be a hit.
My prediction: Under
Barbara Wright
Though players enjoy Sagas and read ahead is a sweet augmentation, I doubt both together will be enough to popularize this history teacher, even with partner.
My prediction: Under
Ian Chesterton
I'd argue replicate is a bigger payoff than read ahead, though not big enough to go Over for Ian, either.
My prediction: Under
Jo Grant
Jo's not all that impressive unless she's got somebody in her sidecar, yet fortunately for us, she has partner—er, companion. (Yikes. That's gonna be confusing.)
At any rate, cycling has been around forever, so support for this motorcyclist should be plentiful.
My prediction: Over
Peri Brown
Our friend Peri here (apparently "Perpugilliam" on her birth certificate) is another fine partner, especially in a go-wide build.
My prediction: Over
Romana II
Populate on a stick is interesting, especially in tandem with The Third Doctor. I'll defer to the token lovers here.
My prediction: Over
Rose Tyler
Suspend is a sweet throwback mechanic, and it gets excellent reinforcements from this set, such as Atraxi Warden and the wonderfully named Dinosaurs on a Spaceship.
My prediction: Over
Sarah Jane Smith
A two-mana 2/1 is an abysmal stat line, and capping the investigation caps Sarah's power level. Reads more like a common than a rare.
My prediction: Under
Tegan Jovanka
What is this, Limited? I don't care if you're using The Tenth Doctor as your Doctor—Tegan just doesn't do enough.
My prediction: Under
Wilfred Mott
Doctor Who fans, is this guy a lighthouse keeper and/or a singer of sea shanties? Because he looks like both.
Whatever his job, I think he might be moonlighting as many people's commander, too. Though he takes a while to get going, Mr. Mott here is a potent build-around, especially with proliferate, scry, and general topdeck manipulation.
My prediction: Over
Adric, Mathematical Genius
This reminds me of Errant, Street Artist, a commander that went Under even when my line was 600. Adric has more applications, true, but even that and partner won't save him from the ultimate Under.
My prediction: Under
Danny Pink
Forget Steve Buscemi—this is the real Mr. Pink. The only challenge will be tracking who's gotten their counters when.
My prediction: Over
K-9, Mark I
You had me at the creature type.
My prediction: Over
Martha Jones
Martha plays in a similar space as K-9, Mark I, and though she offers the added synergy built into Clues, she lacks the whimsy of the robot dog.
My prediction: Under
Nardole, Resourceful Cyborg
Aside from C-3PO, Nardole is the best testament to the power of human-cyborg relations I've ever seen. The Twelfth Doctor might be its best partner, but there are countless other options, too.
My prediction: Over
Nyssa of Traken
This card has build-around potential, especially with Clue payoffs like Tireless Tracker and Fleeting Memories. Partner with The Fugitive Doctor and enjoy—I might do the same.
My prediction: Over
Osgood, Operation Double
Two commanders for the price of one, and both ramp and/or draw cards. Seems osgood to me.
My prediction: Over
Vislor Turlough
The "may" here is essential, since sometimes you'll want that Castle Locthwain for yourself. Still, you'll be taking lots of damage in that scenario, and when you give Vislor to an opponent, they can easily kill him to avoid the downside. No deal.
My prediction: Under
Bill Potts
Bill's most obvious comp is Zada, Hedron Grinder, a commander ranking just outside EDHREC's top 100. That's strong, and with partner, Bill should finish even stronger.
My prediction: Over
Dan Lewis
Funny that Dan Lewis is a legendary creature, since Dan Lewis sounds like the kid you sat next to in third grade. And though his flavor is fun, I don't think turning Clues into Bone Saws is all that impressive.
My prediction: Under
Donna Noble
Players have wanted Stuffy Doll as a commander for years, and now we've finally got it.
My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)
Iraxxa, Empress of Mars
If mars is for the rich, Iraxxa is a rich commander indeed. Prosper, Tome-Bound has demonstrated the power of casting spells from exile, and this commander offers even more options to fulfill the trigger.
My prediction: Over
Ryan Sinclair
The idea here is to run cheap spells and/or augment Ryan's power, but that seems like a lot of hoops to jump through, especially when you'll sometimes whiff.
My prediction: Under
Yasmin Khan
Hill Giant and Archivist aren't particularly interesting. But what if you combined them into one card?
The result is Yasmin Khan, and unfortunately her Magic treatment still isn't that interesting.
My prediction: Under
Ace, Fearless Rebel
This is basically "Anarchy in the UK" in Magic form. It also takes a heck of a lot of setup to get going.
My prediction: Under
Graham O'Brien
This isn't much better than Meriadoc Brandybuck, and I roasted that poor hobbit.
My prediction: Under
Jamie McCrimmon
Don't ask me how I know this, but a kilt is worth 600 decks all by itself. Mr. McCrimmon should make up the rest based on sheer stats.
My prediction: Over
Karvanista, Loyal Lupari
Human tribal is always popular, and it'll only get even more so when led by an Alien Dog Soldier.
My prediction: Over
Leela, Sevateem Warrior
I know you're supposed to pair this with The Second Doctor, but giving away free cards seems like too steep a price for a big green creature with no built-in evasion.
My prediction: Under
Susan Foreman
Do people like Planechase enough to run a commander for it? I'm dubious.
My prediction: Under
Sally Sparrow
I'm going to go ahead and assume this is Jack's sister. She's also a cross between Raff Capashen, Ship's Mage and the back half of
My prediction: Under
The Eighth Doctor
With this and all our Doctors (we now know there are at least eight), it's important to remember that they can all be paired with numerous doctor's companions, meaning their numbers will all be juiced. The Eighth Doctor here doesn't even need the help, since he's basically Muldrotha, the Gravetide for historic cards.
My prediction: Over
The Eleventh Doctor
He isn't just a doctor—he's also a secret Targaryen.
Anyhoo, this doctor comes highly recommended, especially when he's cheating stuff into play. I like this one, and I think many players will, too.
My prediction: Over
The Fifth Doctor
This dude dresses and acts like a recent retiree; just check out that flavor text. He also happens to be a pretty powerful commander, especially when paired with Osgood, Operation Double or Peri Brown. Hope he's enjoying the weather down in Florida.
My prediction: Over
The First Doctor
Our string of Doctors continues with the OG. The TARDIS, by the way, looks like this:
Together, these two cards fuel each other beautifully—and that's not even counting whatever companion you select for your commander here.
My prediction: Over
The Second Doctor
Reminds me of Orzhov Advokist, a card appearing in 22,036 decks. If The Second Doctor performs even half that well, we'll be in business.
My prediction: Over
The Seventh Doctor
If you don't mind spending several minutes selecting an opponent and then explaining to them exactly what it is they're guessing, then you'll love this card.
My prediction: Over
Rassilon, the War President
I wouldn't vote for someone styling themselves "The War President," but I'd totally run this guy as my commander. Free card draw that conspires for additional value...and he's wearing what appears to be an Infinity Gauntlet? What more could you ask for in a commander?
My prediction: Over
The Cyber-Controller
This plus Ixidor, Reality Sculptor. Huh? Huh?
My prediction: Over
The Master, Formed Anew
Not to be confused with the Paul Thomas Anderson film, The Master seems bizarre on first read, then gets spicier the more you brainstorm. I mean, it basically turns every non-legendary creature you've ever wished was your commander into your commander. My top candidates include Massacre Wurm and Thassa's Oracle, though I'm sure you'll have your own favorites.
My prediction: Over
The Master, Mesmerist
"Skulk typal" doesn't sound like something worth building around, and giving the keyword to your opponents (plus goading them) sounds only marginally better.
My prediction: Under
The Beast, Deathless Prince
Four mana is an unholy bargain for this amount of stats, and six stun counters ain't bad at all with enough Threaten effects. Should be one of the set's biggest hits.
My prediction: Over
The Dalek Emperor
This card is super powerful, yet with only Dalek Drone, Dalek Squadron, and Dalek tokens available to reduce its hefty cost, it's going to be a tough build-around.
My prediction: Under
The Master, Gallifrey's End
Rakdos artifacts is like the breakfast menu at Taco Bell: I'm pretty sure it's good. Pretty sure.
I confess I haven't tried either. Yet both look tasty, especially when considering Disciple of the Vault, Oni-Cult Anvil, and the Breakfast Crunchwrap with Bacon. I might have to try it all.
My prediction: Tempting...I mean, Over
The Master, Multiplied
This guy again? I knew there were, like, 15 Doctors, but I didn't know there were multiples of this dude, too. The more the merrier, I suppose—and that happens to be this Master's ethos. Cards like Feldon of the Third Path and Orthion, Hero of Lavabrink suddenly skyrocket in value, breaking ground for a mostly unexplored archetype.
My prediction: Over
Strax, Sontaran Nurse
I'm sure you don't need me to tell you never to accept medical assistance from an Alien Cleric wielding a shovel and shouting, "Grenades!"
My prediction: Under
The Fugitive Doctor
Why yes, I'd love to flashback my Titania's Command and Brass's Bounty on discount. Even if I'm re-casting Decimate for the same price, I'll be happy.
My prediction: Over
Sergeant John Benton
Group Slug and Group Hug combined? That mixes worse than the Taco Bell Breakfast Menu and a morning jog.
My prediction: Under
Vrestin, Menoptra Leader
There aren't many Insects in white (just four, counting the backside of Befriending the Moths), but there are many in green, and that's plenty to support this excellent typal commander.
My prediction: Over
Idris, Soul of the TARDIS
This card seems very wheel-spinny to me (and not just because you can exile Vehicles). Though copying Spine of Ish Sah with Idris sounds fun, I think she's too narrow to lead more than 1,200 decks.
My prediction: Under
River Song
This is basically Grenzo, Dungeon Warden's dream girl. He leads 3,071 decks, and I suspect River Song will lead even more.
My prediction: Over
The Ninth Doctor
At the very least, this is halving your wait time on suspend cards. On the higher end, it's doubling your meanest upkeep triggers, such as those on Dominus of Fealty and Dragonmaster Outcast. No wonder he earned his doctorate.
My prediction: Over
The Tenth Doctor
Wow, who knew Barty Crouch Jr. was masquerading as The Tenth Doctor all along? Imposter or not, this card reminds me of Jhoira of the Ghitu, a commander who leads 2,831 decks. Bodes well for Mr. Crouch here.
My prediction: Over
The Twelfth Doctor
I don't know many doctors who play electric guitar, but if they did, I suspect prostate exams would be more fun (at least a little). The Twelfth Doctor is an excellent demonstration of this, adding demonstrate to your suspend and flashback spells.
My prediction: Over
Jenny, Generated Anomaly
See my evaluation of Astrid Peth.
My prediction: Under
The War Doctor
This dude reminds me of Bell Borca, Spectral Sergeant, a commander that went Under despite my prediction to the contrary. I've got to think this guy will do better sheerly because he can partner with so many doctor's companions. Fingers crossed.
My prediction: Over
Duggan, Private Detective
I don't mean to be a history snob, but "The Most Important Punch in History" was clearly Rocky's knockout blow on Drago—not this.
My prediction: Under
The Fourth Doctor
The Food token is just gravy (perhaps literally) on top of whatever you're playing. It's capped at one per turn, though instants or flash enablers break that paradigm wide open. I'll have a bite of this commander.
My prediction: Over
The Sixth Doctor
This guy is giving me Will-Ferrell-as-Mugatu vibes, which probably isn't a good thing. Still, the effect here is plenty powerful, despite feeling like a Simic retread at this point.
My prediction: Over
The Third Doctor
Reminds me of Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy, a card that's already gone Over (1,242 decks). The only difference? This guy has a sword. And ruffles. And he's not a Gremlin.
My prediction: Over
The Thirteenth Doctor
There's that casting-a-spell-from-anywhere-other-than-your-hand text again. It's just as good here as it was on Iraxxa, Empress of Mars, and it gets even better when you stack counters onto stuff like Arcanis the Omnipotent.
My prediction: Over
Ashad, the Lone Cyberman
Shades of Anhelo, the Painter, only with more armor and less acrylics. Ashad probably won't become quite as popular, but he should come pretty darn close.
My prediction: Over
Cult of Skaro
Randomness is frowned upon in lesser formats, but in EDH, we appreciate a good roll of the dice. Get your D4s ready.
My prediction: Over
Davros, Dalek Creator
This card is super mean, especially when you can turn a simple Lightning Bolt into a 3/3 with menace, plus a fresh card in your hand or a card out of theirs. They don't get much more villainous than this.
My prediction: Over
Missy
This card is getting a lot of hype, though I'm a little confused as to why. One, it's expensive, and two, nobody's ever going to choose the damage option. That leaves you with a six-mana personal Howling Mine that gets auto-chaos if you're playing Planechase. Doesn't sound appealing to me, but I suppose I'll follow the hype.
My prediction: Over
The Rani
People complain about set fatigue all the time, but you hear very little about goad fatigue. It's a mechanic that appears on a commander about once per set, and though it started popular (see the solid performance of Marisi, Breaker of the Coil), it's performed worse of late (see the shoddy performance of Bhaal, Lord of Murder). I'm foreseeing more of the latter.
My prediction: Under
The Valeyard
Tivit, Seller of Secrets has performed well, though it offers lots more than just additional votes. The Valeyard's only additional upside is doubling villainous choices, and I don't think there are enough of those to build around.
My prediction: Under
Alistair, the Brigadier
Eight is a lot, even in EDH, and a bunch of measly 1/1s while you wait doesn't sound substantial enough.
My prediction: Under
Jenny Flint + Madame Vastra
Evaluating these two together since they're each other's partners. Both provide a fair amount of value, yet neither does much unless they're attacking simultaneously. Also, they don't suggest a clear direction, except maybe "attack with stuff."
My prediction: Under
Me, the Immortal
Arya Stark, what are you doing here? When she's not exacting revenge on her family's enemies, she's apparently hoarding counters. Tracking those counters while she's in the graveyard sounds like a logistical nightmare, but whatever—this card is basically a souped up version of Skullbriar, the Walking Grave, who commands 4824 decks. Methinks Me might go even higher.
My prediction: Over
Amy Pond + Rory Williams
After Googling Rory Williams and finding a realtor from Idaho, I figured I'd made a mistake. But make no mistake about this: Rory and Amy Pond here make a great pair. Cast Rory on two, cast Amy on three, then start swinging to cast Rory—or another suspended card—ahead of schedule.
My prediction: Over
Kate Stewart
Time counters are worse than 1/1 tokens, so if Alistair, the Brigadier goes Under, Kate Stewart should go even Underer (editors, please leave that in).
My prediction: Under
The Face of Boe
Boe: Would you like a Deep-Sea Kraken for three mana, or perhaps a Star Whale for two?
Me: Why yes, Boe, I would. Would you like a body?
Boe: Too soon.
My prediction: Over
Clara Oswald
Clara here is like The Prismatic Piper and Faceless One, only she's not better suited as a coaster. She's actually quite good, especially when partnered with The Ninth Doctor, The Tenth Doctor, and many others. Her versatility might make her the set's most popular commander.
My prediction: Over
Recap
Over (45)
- Jo Grant
- Peri Brown
- Romana II
- Rose Tyler
- Wilfred Mott
- Danny Pink
- K-9, Mark I
- Nardole, Resourceful Cyborg
- Nyssa of Traken
- Osgood, Operation Double
- Bill Potts
- Iraxxa, Empress of Mars
- Jamie McCrimmon
- Karvanista, Loyal Lupari
- The Eighth Doctor
- The Eleventh Doctor
- The Fifth Doctor
- The First Doctor
- The Second Doctor
- The Seventh Doctor
- Rassilon, the War President
- The Cyber-Controller
- The Master, Formed Anew
- The Beast, Deathless Prince
- The Master, Gallifrey's End
- The Master, Multiplied
- The Fugitive Doctor
- Vrestin, Menoptra Leader
- River Song
- The Ninth Doctor
- The Tenth Doctor
- The Twelfth Doctor
- The War Doctor
- The Fourth Doctor
- The Sixth Doctor
- The Third Doctor
- The Thirteenth Doctor
- Ashad, the Lone Cyberman
- Cult of Skaro
- Davros, Dalek Creator
- Missy
- Me, the Immortal
- Amy Pond + Rory Williams
- The Face of Boe
- Clara Oswald
Under (28)
- Astrid Peth
- Barbara Wright
- Ian Chesterton
- Sarah Jane Smith
- Tegan Jovanka
- Adric, Mathematical Genius
- Martha Jones
- Vislor Turlough
- Dan Lewis
- Ryan Sinclair
- Yasmin Khan
- Ace, Fearless Rebel
- Graham O'Brien
- Leela, Sevateem Warrior
- Susan Foreman
- Sally Sparrow
- The Master, Mesmerist
- The Dalek Emperor
- Strax, Sontaran Nurse
- Sergeant John Benton
- Idris, Soul of the TARDIS
- Jenny, Generated Anomaly
- Duggan, Private Detective
- The Rani
- The Valeyard
- Alistair, the Brigadier
- Jenny Flint + Madame Vastra
- Kate Stewart
Can't-Miss Pick
Many commanders to choose from here. Hop in the TARDIS and select your favorites!
Read more:
The Over/Under Part 2- Predicting the Popularity of Lord of the Rings Commanders
EDHREC Code of Conduct