The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of March of the Machine Commanders

April 14, 2023 by Kyle Massa

Invasion of Shandalar | Art by Adam Paquette

The 600 Gets a Rebrand

Welcome back to the article series formerly known as The 600. It's the same game with a different name—we're now calling it The Over/Under!

From here on out, we're doubling our line from 600 to 1200. For each new commander, we'll guess whether it'll lead Over or Under 1200 commander decks by this time next year, then review our picks with a follow-up article. And there's still one Can't-Miss Pick each set, sort of like a called shot in Horse.

Why the Change to 1200?

I started writing these articles five years ago. Since then, the popularity of EDH—and Magic in general—has skyrocketed. You've probably noticed.

"Popular" is, of course, a subjective term. Back in 2018, 600 felt like the correct demarcation. Here's how I explained the number in my very first article:

Based on last year's Commander product [Commander 2017], 600 looks like the line for a popular commander. (Also, I got approval from EDHREC creator Don Miner himself, so I’m set.) For context, here are a few commanders from last year that surpassed that mark:

These commanders felt like the set's most popular at the time. You'd see them at FNMs, players frequently discussed them online, and content was constantly generated about them. Now, however, a commander earning 600 decks in a year feels middling at best.

So, like Dylan going electric, we're making a dramatic change. That means a bigger line, and a new series title.

Now, without further ado, let's celebrate March in April.

Elesh Norn

If Phyrexia's 10 versions of Norn weren't enough, here's another. Spoiler: this one's the best yet. Here's what happens once she flips:

  1. Create five free 2/2 tokens.
  2. Swing for 30 damage.
  3. Plague Wind.
  4. Your friends ask you to play a different deck.

My prediction: Over

Jin-Gitaxias

This feels like the bluest blue commander I've ever read. Rampant card draw into more rampant card draw, then bounce the board and enjoy temporary Omniscience? Though Qui-Gon Jin-Gitaxias is slow and plodding, that won't stop EDH players (i.e., me) from playing him.

My prediction: Over

Sheoldred

The Praetors must have the same agent as Cher and Zendaya, because they're all going with mononyms. It's a smart path to popularity, though Sheoldred doesn't need the help; she's basically The Eldest Reborn, Fugue, and Rise of the Dark Realms right there in the command zone.

My prediction: Over

Orthion, Hero of Lavabrink

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker does the same thing for zero mana, yet he only leads 679 decks. Orthion won't do much better.

My prediction: Under

Urabrask

This is perhaps the most potent mono-red spellslinger we've ever seen. If you untap with Urabrask, casting three consecutive spells should be trivial (especially if you're leaning on Flashback). Like our other Praetors, this card is outstanding.

My prediction: Over

Surrak and Goreclaw

Surprising to see Goreclaw teaming up with a guy who punches bears for a living, but I suppose it's better than getting Compleated. Though this card is plenty good, it feels fairly vanilla compared to the other team-ups and DFCs we're getting from the rest of the set.

My prediction: Under

Vorinclex

A three-for-one on the front is deece. An additional two-for-one on the back is even better, plus you get a pile of +1/+1 counters and the chance to Plague Wind your opponents. Even with the new line, we're five-for-five on the Praetors.

My prediction: Over

Errant and Giada

This card is like my guy Daniel Jones: vanilla, but effective. Casting spells from the top of one's library is always good, and a Flash/Flying theme will be eternally useful, especially in white and blue. Somebody give these two a new contract.

My prediction: Over

Heliod, the Radiant Dawn

I'll take Vedalken Orrery on a stick with cost-reduction, thank you very much. It's actually a pretty cool design, since it punishes opponents who are being degenerate (Jin-Gitaxias players, anyone?)

My prediction: Over

Hidetsugu and Kairi

I'll take a free Brainstorm on a 5/4 flyer, but I never like commanders with death triggers, especially when they cost five mana.

My prediction: Under

Rona, Herald of Invasion

You can steal your opponents' stuff, yes, but better yet, Rona lets you cast cards at random from your hand when paired with pingers, like Prodigal Sorcerer.

Problem is, that doesn't really synergize with the front side of the card. In fact, it feels like they glued two unrelated creatures together. One half cares about looting and legends, while the other cares about combat and pinging? Not seeing the throughline here.

My prediction: Under

Ayara, Widow of the Realm

Though Ayara is Eldraine's version of The Bachelorette, I doubt she'll earn the same ratings. Surrendering board presence to damage only one player is risky, and five or six mana to flip is a lot, especially for a middling back side. I do not accept this rose.

My prediction: Under

Rankle and Torbran

Rankle and Torbran feels more like Rankle than Torbran, and Rankle only leads 650 decks. Feels like the sort of card that would've gone over 600, but won't clear our new bar.

My prediction: Under

Etali, Primal Conqueror

"Primal Sickness" was my nickname this cold season, though I shouldn't make this about me. Let's talk about Etali. A seven-mana 7/7 trampler with several free spells is already amazing. Then, if you get to 9 or 10 mana, you get a Phyrexian Elder Dinosaur, which is perhaps the scariest type line ever printed.

My prediction: Over

Kogla and Yidaro

Once upon a time, I gave Kogla, the Titan Ape an Over. I got 120 decks. At least I had the good sense to go Under on Yidaro, Wandering Monster, who earned a measly 10.

Now that they're together, I don't see them doing much better. The modal ability is decent, but the activated ability is basically flavor text, since you'd need to engineer some way to bounce it. Not worth the effort.

My prediction: Under

Ghalta and Mavren

A vampire riding a dinosaur with a house on its back is an unlikely image, but when you're facing the Phyrexians, I suppose anything goes. You certainly get a lot for your seven mana, but it is seven mana. Plus, this is pretty much exclusively a Dinosaur theme commander, since green-white Vampires isn't a thing. Overall, I would've liked this card at 600, but not at 1200.

My prediction: Under

Polukranos Reborn

"Resumed his endless feast with reckless enthusiasm," eh? Sounds like me on Thanksgiving. I also like the sound of Wurmcoil Engine in the command zone, even if we're swapping deathtouch for reach. Triple green upfront plus another six or seven mana is a big barrier, but this is one tasty turkey—I mean, Hydra.

My prediction: Over

Brimaz, Blight of Oreskos

A simple yet versatile design. You can go Phyrexian theme, artifacts, or a bit of both. I suspect the Proliferate will be incidental upside rather than the deck's focus, though I suppose you could build around that, too. For just four mana, this is quite the powerful package.

(P.S.: Where did Brimaz find Soul Edge?)

My prediction: Over

Drana and Linvala

This team-up commander is less expensive than our last, though far more narrow. The activated ability prohibition is based on Linvala, Keeper of Silence, a commander with only 70 decks. Also, although stealing opposing abilities could be fun, it's entirely contextual. Great pair, lousy card.

My prediction: Under

Moira and Teshar

This is essentially Teshar, Ancestor's Apostle with a one-turn limitation and without the three-mana cap. You'd think that would be better, yet the allure of Ancestor's Apostle is looping stuff like Salvage Scout and Benevolent Bodyguard. Can't do that here, and for that reason, I'm off it.

My prediction: Under

Baral and Kari Zev

I'm guessing this card reads better than it plays (and if you're like me, you had to read it several times). A free additional spell is good, but since most instants and sorceries are cheap, I don't see this being game-breaking. Recruiting Ragavan as an alternative plan is fun, but this isn't turn one on the play in Modern. I just don't see it here.

My prediction: Under

Glissa, Herald of Predation

Based on this and her last incarnation, Glissa likes bullet points more than mid-level executives drunk on the power of PowerPoint. In her defense, this version seems more appealing than Glissa Sunslayer, a card which I gave an Under (it already went Over). If her Praetor bosses like her this much, it must be time for a promotion.

My prediction: Over

Yargle and Multani

Yargle, Glutton of Urborg has always been a fringe playable in EDH. So what happens when we literally double the meme? We get a bizarre exchange of dialogue and a commander that would've eclipsed 600, but not 1200.

My prediction: Under

Djeru and Hazoret

This is the best team-up since Jagger and Richards (except for that tiff in the 80s). You're probably going to play out your hand naturally, and it won't even matter when you're casting free legend after free legend straight from your deck. I know it's only red and white, but I like it.

My prediction: Over

Quintorius, Loremaster

Quintorius essentially grants noncreature spells delayed Flashback for 1RW. Is that good? I mean... I think so? With discard outlets, you can cheat mana costs on stuff like Overwhelming Splendor and Brass's Bounty. And hey, you could even build a planeswalker reanimator deck! I think I just talked myself into this one.

My prediction: Over

Inga and Esika

These team-up commanders have created some whacky type lines, with "Human God" being perhaps the most contradictory. Anyhoo, these two are the Simic-est of Simic commanders. I can imagine players chaining oodles of creatures onto the battlefield, especially with haste-enablers like the aforementioned Surrak and Goreclaw.

My prediction: Over

Elenda and Azor

More like "Winmore and Winmore." If you're freely attacking with a 6/6, you're probably already winning. If you can afford to tap out to draw cards, you're definitely already winning. This commander is all gravy, no meat.

My prediction: Under

Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir

It's no coincidence that two of EDH's top 10 commanders have Eminence. Though Sidar Jabari's version is less broken than The Ur-Dragon and Edgar Markov's, a free loot with every attacking Knight is still plenty busted.

My prediction: Over

Goro-Goro and Satoru

My first thought for this card was Ninjas. An all-haste theme also works, or you could simply rely on the activated ability. Oh, and there are plenty of Unearth creatures, all of which happen to have haste built-in. If you can create 5/5 Dragons as easily as it seems, I think this will be a commander to remember.

My prediction: Over

Slimefoot and Squee

I doubt a walking portobello and an obnoxious Goblin will be enough to save the Multiverse, but we'll go with it. There's some backdoor reanimator synergy here if you can get Slimefoot and Squee into the graveyard (though an aristocrats and/or token theme is more likely). A little clunky, but fun enough to earn 1200.

My prediction: Over

Bright-Palm, Soul Awakener

Doubling +1/+1 counters is powerful, but it's fairly hard to set up, especially when you're compelled to risk your creatures in combat. Furthermore, Backup seems like a mechanic better suited to Limited than Constructed. Not into this one.

My prediction: Under

Shalai and Hallar

These days, a Hill Giant seems puny, even if it does have flying and vigilance. Also, +1/+1 counters usually come in handfuls, not bundles, meaning it'll be hard to stack significant damage. You can't even target all your opponents! You can only ping one at a time! I'm off this card.

My prediction: Under

Katilda and Lier

An interesting design, though more disparate than I would like. To get full value, you need to cast a Human cheap enough to leave mana for the Flashback spell, which puts a lot of pressure on your build. If we needed a human duo, I would've preferred Simon and Garfunkel.

My prediction: Under

Kroxa and Kunoros

Just a faceless boy and his three-headed dog. It'll take some work to pack your graveyard with six cards, though stuff like Faithless Looting, Dark Deal, and Stitcher's Supplier certainly help. Still, I wouldn't want to encounter these two at the dog park.

My prediction: Over

Borborygmos and Fblthp

The two Ravnicans with the weirdest names have teamed up to become a pretty powerful commander. Drawing cards with the option of nuking opposing creatures is great, especially in tandem with green land-reclaimers, like Life from the Loam and Groundskeeper. Fblthp offers basically nothing to the partnership, but we'll let that slide.

My prediction: Over

Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy

The obvious artifact tokens are Clues, Treasures, Food, and Powerstones, as well as this set's Incubator tokens (plus Gremlins from Gimbal himself). Beyond that, there's a surprising myriad of options, including Rocks from Toggo, Goblin Weaponsmith, Icy Manaliths from Svella, Ice Shaper, and Scraps from Farid, Enterprising Salvager. Goblin Cruciverbalist is the deck's unlikely MVP, since it generates up to five Scrabble tiles. Overall, this is one sweet build-around.

My prediction: Over

Rashmi and Ragavan

If I had to team up with someone to save my plane from existential corruption, I probably wouldn't choose the pirate monkey. That said, these two are making it work. You either get a free spell or a one-mana rebate off said spell, depending on its mana value and your artifact count (which I'm guessing is quite high). Seems like an Over to me.

My prediction: Over

Thalia and The Gitrog Monster

This sounds like the title of a new YA book, and a popular one at that. It's almost impossible to beat in combat, it ramps you, it impedes your opponents' development, and it even alleviates The Gitrog Monster's greatest drawback (compulsory land sacrifice). I'll take a hardcover, please.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick!)

Kasla, the Broken Halo

I like this card more than old people like Yellowstone. The Convoke ability makes Kasla castable at pretty much any point in the game, and thanks to vigilance, she can attack and tap in the same turn. As if that wasn't enough, she also has two relevant creature types. Young and old alike will play this commander.

My prediction: Over

Saint Traft and Rem Karolus

Jeskai isn't exactly the premier color-combo for quality Convoke spells. I mean, I'd rather not play something like Aerial Boost just to make this happen. Though Kasla is a Jeskai Convoke commander, too, she's far less committed to the mechanic.

My prediction: Under

Zurgo and Ojutai

Wizards R&D somehow managed to cram three evergreen keywords, a tribal payoff, a free Anticipate, and pseudo-Dash onto one legendary Orc Dragon, and I am here for it. The Dash thing is probably least useful, though it can be upside for Dragons like Ganax, Astral Hunter or Lathliss, Dragon Queen. More wordy than elegant, but still an exciting commander.

My prediction: Over

Zimone and Dina

Though this is a tame treatment of the now-classic draw-two ability, it's gone Over on several recent commanders, including Alandra, Sky Dreamer, Gavi, Nest Warden, and Minn, Wily Illusionist. That's almost incidental compared to the second ability, which puts EDH's two best actions (ramp and card draw) into one paragraph.

My prediction: Over

Omnath, Locus of All

We knew the five-color Omnath was coming, and it doesn't disappoint. Stockpiling black mana is nice, and though there's no clunkier phrase than "at the beginning of your precombat main phase," I'll allow it here. Similar to Niv-Mizzet Reborn and Jared Carthalion, you'll want to stuff your deck with as many gold cards as possible. Assuming you do, you get a shot at a free Black Lotus every turn. If that doesn't earn an Over—even at 1200—I don't know what will.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Overs (25)

Unders (17)

Can't-Miss Pick

If you've been reading these article since the beginning, thanks for sticking with me all these years! I think this shift will be a fun new wrinkle moving forward. Or maybe I'm jumping the shark. Either way, you'll have to keep reading to see what happens next.

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.

Tags

    #Ayara Widow of the Realm, #Baral and Kari Zev, #Borborygmos and Fblthp, #Bright-Palm Soul Awakener, #Brimaz Blight of Oreskos, #Djeru and Hazoret, #Drana and Linvala, #Elenda and Azor, #elesh norn, #Errant and Giada, #Etali Primal Conqueror, #Ghalta and Mavren, #Gimbal Gremlin Prodigy, #Glissa Herald of Predation, #Goro-Goro and Satoru, #Heliod the Radiant Dawn, #Heliod the Warped Eclipse, #Hidetsugu and Kairi, #Inga and Esika, #jin-gitaxias, #Kasla the Broken Halo, #Katilda and Lier, #Kogla and Yidaro, #Kroxa and Kunoros, #march of the machine, #Moira and Teshar, #Omnath Locus of All, #Orthion Hero of Lavabrink, #Polukranos Reborn, #Quintorius Loremaster, #Rankle and Torbran, #Rashmi and Ragavan, #Rona Herald of Invasion, #Saint Traft and Rem Karolus, #sheoldred, #Sidar Jabari of Zhalfir, #Slimefoot and Squee, #Surrak and Goreclaw, #Thalia and The Gitrog Monster, #the 600, #the over/under, #Urabrask, #vorinclex, #Yargle and Multani, #Zimone and Dina, #Zurgo and Ojutai

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