The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Marvel Super Heroes Commanders, Part 1

by
Kyle Massa
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Marvel Super Heroes Commanders, Part 1

Methods of the MightyMethods of the Mighty | Art by David Seeley

If there's one thing I've learned from watching all 37 films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, it's this: superheroes like post-credit scenes. Alas, there were no post-credit scenes featuring Magic, but we'll still welcome the Super Heroes into our game, Over/Under style.

In this series, we predict how many decks new commanders will lead after a year in the wild. Our line is 1,200, so each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" that line. And don't forget our Can't-Miss Pick, which is our most confident selection of the set. Whether it's a God, a Skrull, or a Squirrel, we're going to cover it.

(With a Whole Lot of Exceptions)

Speaking of Gods (shoutout to Thor), there's an ungodly amount of commanders in this set: 379, to be exact. I'd rather not write a novella, so to keep things manageable, I'll only analyze common and uncommon commanders if they're truly interesting (you don't need me to explain why Hawkeye, Clint BartonHawkeye, Clint Barton is going Under). If you're really interested, feel free to scroll to the bottom, where I'll still give every commander their grade.

Today, we'll cover the base set mono-color commanders. Part 2 will tackle the Commander product mono-color commanders. And in Part 3, we'll evaluate all the multicolor commanders from both sets.

Now let's assemble...for real this time!

Agent Phil CoulsonAgent Phil Coulson

Agent Phil Coulson

Had his own show on ABC for a while. Never tuned in. Won't tune in for his Magic card, either. Heroes are below average in popularity, I'd say, and Phil won't change that.

My prediction: Under

Captain America, Super-SoldierCaptain America, Super-Soldier

Captain America, Super-Soldier

Cap is an excellent addition to proliferate decks, counter decks, and 1940s theme decks. Problem is, he does little to address mono-white's fatal flaws.

My prediction: Under

Captain America, Wings of FreedomCaptain America, Wings of Freedom

Captain America, Wings of Freedom

Sick artwork here by Dan Dos Santos. If only the payoff didn't reward that aforementioned shallow creature type.

My prediction: Under

Captain Marvel, Earth's ProtectorCaptain Marvel, Earth's Protector

Captain Marvel, Earth's Protector

Captain Marvel (not to be confused with Captain America, Captain Planet, or Captain Barbossa) is a stats monster. Flash, flying, lifelink, indestructible? Love it. But, yet again, mono-white's biggest issue is a lack of card advantage — and I don't see any card advantage here.

My prediction: Under

The Sentry, Golden GuardianThe Sentry, Golden Guardian

The Sentry, Golden Guardian

I wrote a whole spiel about this guy a few months ago, and I stand by everything I said back then…including my hesitancy. He just requires a lot of finesse to work, and he lacks raw card advantage. Tell me if you're spider-sensing a pattern here...

My prediction: Under

Attuma, Atlantean WarlordAttuma, Atlantean Warlord

Attuma, Atlantean Warlord

Merfolk are pretty darn popular, and Attuma is a pretty darn good leader for them. Problem is, there's another mono-blue Merfolk commander coming up who's going to steal the proverbial thunder — which is a big deal, because you gotta get out of the water when you hear thunder.

My prediction: Under

Ironheart, Clever ChampionIronheart, Clever Champion

Ironheart, Clever Champion

In my experience, improvise is a lot worse than it looks. I've crammed Inspiring StatuaryInspiring Statuary into many a deck and wondered why it was so uninspiring. I think many other players must've had a similar experience, because I've seen little, if any, interest in this commander throughout the community. At least the show was good.

My prediction: Under

Kang the ConquerorKang the Conqueror

Kang the Conqueror

I know, I know. But it's just so expensive.

My prediction: Under

Leader, Super-GeniusLeader, Super-Genius

Leader, Super-Genius

If this guy's so smart, how come he couldn't come up with a better card? Connive is flavorful, sure, but I'll say the same thing I said during Spider-Man: outside of Raffine, Scheming SeerRaffine, Scheming Seer, connive just isn't that popular.

My prediction: Under

Loki, God of MischiefLoki, God of Mischief

Loki, God of Mischief

"This ability triggers only once each turn" is shorthand for "this ability got out-of-hand in playtesting." Why yes, I would enjoy drawing free cards off my Vizier of Tumbling SandsVizier of Tumbling Sands, and my equip abilities, and the connive mechanic I just pooh-poohed, and pretty much any ability you can think of. Oh, and Displacer KittenDisplacer Kitten? You've done it again.

My prediction: Over

Ms. Marvel, Kamala KhanMs. Marvel, Kamala Khan

Ms. Marvel, Kamala Khan

Just as "a noble spirit embiggens the smallest man," so too do your targeted spells embiggen Ms. Marvel. Problem is, she comes with no evasion, and if you're targeting your creatures with something like Slip Through SpaceSlip Through Space, you're just begging to get two-for-oned.

My prediction: Under

Namor the Sub-MarinerNamor the Sub-Mariner

Namor the Sub-Mariner

Mono-blue devotion has been a thing before, and thanks to Namor, it might be again. Most have pegged this for Modern Merfolk, but I can absolutely see it in Commander as well, not to mention my Commander Cube, which runs its share of free spells (including a Force of WillForce of Will I pulled from a prize pack of Eternal Masters. Flex.).

My prediction: Over

The Wondrous WaspThe Wondrous Wasp

The Wondrous Wasp

In our modern era of power creep—especially when it comes to legendary creatures—I'm a little surprised to see this above uncommon.

My prediction: Under

Baron Helmut ZemoBaron Helmut Zemo

Baron Helmut Zemo

Zemo is pretty splashy, and he's been accumulating decks months in advance, since he appeared in that debut drop last December. Both strong points in the Baron's favor. We've also seen plenty of mono-black commanders spread their wings and soar like angels at a Creed concert, from Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIERSephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER to K'rrik, Son of YawgmothK'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth. Why not the Baron, I ask you?

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Black Widow, Super SpyBlack Widow, Super Spy

Black Widow, Super Spy

I pulled this from a pack and was immediately reminded of Ragavan, Nimble PilfererRagavan, Nimble Pilferer. Not a bad comp, since Rags went Over, even though I predicted Under (not one of my finer moments). Will the same thing happen here?

Maybe, because I'm going Under again. Although she's got potential, I suspect Black Widow will get overlooked in this crowded field. Plus, international assassins just aren't as endearing as monkey pirates.

My prediction: Under

Doctor DoomDoctor Doom

Doctor Doom

How do you like the sound of turn 3 The Sibsig CeremonyThe Sibsig Ceremony into turn 4 Doctor DoomDoctor Doom? People are already doing that in Standard (*retching sound*), and I suspect it'll be just as fun in Commander. Plus, with a whole movie about him coming in December, that's gotta help.

My prediction: Over

Elektra, Daughter of the HandElektra, Daughter of the Hand

Elektra, Daughter of the Hand

This card's a beating in Limited, but annoying at best in Commander.

My prediction: Under

M.O.D.O.K.M.O.D.O.K.

M.O.D.O.K.

Big head, tiny limbs, mildly threatening. But only mildly.

My prediction: Under

Fin Fang FoomFin Fang Foom

Fin Fang Foom

This alliterative commander rewards some unseemly play patterns, to the point where I suspect playgroups might hate it out if you actually bring it. Somebody might chuckle at the name, at least.

My prediction: Under

Hawkeye, Master MarksmanHawkeye, Master Marksman

Hawkeye, Master Marksman

Lots of text, but little of it feels impactful enough. And you're telling me this guy was in the Avengers?

My prediction: Under

Quicksilver, Brash BlurQuicksilver, Brash Blur

Quicksilver, Brash Blur

The Leyline-style effect is undoubtedly the coolest aspect of Quicksilver...but you can’t use it if he’s your commander.

My prediction: Under

The Scarlet WitchThe Scarlet Witch

The Scarlet Witch

Mizzix of the IzmagnusMizzix of the Izmagnus? Is that you?

Almost. Losing those experience counters, along with the color blue, makes Scarlet Witch a tougher sell—although she makes up for those deficiencies with an ability that requires little setup beyond boosting her power. Cost reduction is pretty much always broken, so let's see if players can break games — and reality? — with this reality-warping hero.

My prediction: Over

Thor, God of ThunderThor, God of Thunder

Thor, God of Thunder

This has my vote for coolest commander of the set (disclaimer: I'm predisposed to liking Thor, because of Thor: Ragnarok, which is my favorite Marvel movie). Mjölnir, Hammer of ThorMjölnir, Hammer of Thor is an essential inclusion, but X spells work great as well, along with Cascade spells (since they double-trigger Thor's direct damage, so long as they're noncreatures). Can't wait to cast this with my playgroup and complain as he gets immediately Doom BladeDoom Bladed.

My prediction: Over

Mole Man, Moloid MasterMole Man, Moloid Master

Mole Man, Moloid Master

Fun fact: His birth certificate reads "Hans Moleman."

Not an uninteresting commander, although he's better in the 99 of Hearthhull, the WorldseedHearthhull, the Worldseed or The NecrobloomThe Necrobloom than in the command zone. I myself can't wait to stuff Hans into my The Gitrog MonsterThe Gitrog Monster deck, because moloids and frogs go together like steak and eggs.

My prediction: Under

Shang-Chi, Master of Kung FuShang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu

Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu

Ramping as much as five on turn three is obviously excellent, but, like Hans Moleman, that feels more like a supporting effect than the head honcho.

My prediction: Under

The Unbeatable Squirrel GirlThe Unbeatable Squirrel Girl

The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl

Yes, I know you've been slogging through this whole article just to get to this moment. Squirrels have been a popular creature type across formats for decades already, so it's no surprise that the latest support has players excited. Squirrel Girl is pretty threatening all on her own, but you can combine her with Agatha's Soul CauldronAgatha's Soul Cauldron, Shang-Chi, Master of Kung FuShang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu, any ol' mana dork in your graveyard, and Badgermole CubBadgermole Cub for a squirrel convention.

My prediction: Over

Super-AdaptoidSuper-Adaptoid

Super-Adaptoid

My pal Drew ripped this at the prerelease (shoutout to Drew) and did some nifty stuff with it. For example, he gave it lifelink and indestructible thanks to Take Up the ShieldTake Up the Shield, then added double strike and trample with Team TacticsTeam Tactics. Pretty sure the Adaptoid only had one power at that point, but still, you've got to admit, that's sweet.

Of course, those are both colored cards, and that's the issue we'd encounter with Super-AdaptoidSuper-Adaptoid in the command zone. Colorless is tough enough to build around as it is, and needing both keywords and heroes to make it pop makes it nigh on impossible.

My prediction: Under

The VisionThe Vision

The Vision

This is a home-run design from both gameplay and flavor perspectives — not that Vision plays baseball, canonically. He can, however, pass through matter, hence the phasing stuff. Once you untap, you can cast instants to save him from pretty much any fate, including board wipes. Furthermore, since phasing leaves Vision on the battlefield, his counters remain.

All that said, Vision works best with instants, and there aren’t many in colorless — just 13, to be exact. So overall, he's sweet, but I think the limited scope of his color identity will kill him, just like (spoiler) Thanos killed him in the movies. Twice.

My prediction: Under

Ultron, Artificial MalevolenceUltron, Artificial Malevolence

Ultron, Artificial Malevolence

Finally, a colorless commander that actually rewards colorless for doing what colorless does best: artifacts! Doubling pretty much any artifact seems suitably menacing, especially if you can give it legs. Darksteel IngotDarksteel Ingot suddenly becomes an indestructible Birds of ParadiseBirds of Paradise, for instance, and think of the value with Steel OverseerSteel Overseer. And you know the only thing better than having one Blightsteel ColossusBlightsteel Colossus...?

My prediction: Over

Recap

Overs

  1. Loki, God of MischiefLoki, God of Mischief
  2. Namor the Sub-MarinerNamor the Sub-Mariner
  3. Baron Helmut ZemoBaron Helmut Zemo (Can't-Miss Pick)
  4. Doctor DoomDoctor Doom
  5. The Scarlet WitchThe Scarlet Witch
  6. Thor, God of ThunderThor, God of Thunder
  7. The Unbeatable Squirrel GirlThe Unbeatable Squirrel Girl
  8. Ultron, Artificial MalevolenceUltron, Artificial Malevolence

Unders

  1. Agent 13, Sharon CarterAgent 13, Sharon Carter
  2. Agent Maria HillAgent Maria Hill
  3. Agent Phil CoulsonAgent Phil Coulson
  4. Captain America, Super-SoldierCaptain America, Super-Soldier
  5. Captain America, Wings of FreedomCaptain America, Wings of Freedom
  6. Captain Marvel, Earth's ProtectorCaptain Marvel, Earth's Protector
  7. Captain Mar-Vell, Space-BornCaptain Mar-Vell, Space-Born
  8. Colleen Wing, Street SamuraiColleen Wing, Street Samurai
  9. Invisible Woman, Sue StormInvisible Woman, Sue Storm
  10. Luke Cage, Power ManLuke Cage, Power Man
  11. Mockingbird, Ace AgentMockingbird, Ace Agent
  12. Night Nurse, Healer of HeroesNight Nurse, Healer of Heroes
  13. Okoye, Dora Milaje LeaderOkoye, Dora Milaje Leader
  14. Patriot, Shield WielderPatriot, Shield Wielder
  15. Quake, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.Quake, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.
  16. Red Guardian, Super-SoldierRed Guardian, Super-Soldier
  17. The Sentry, Golden GuardianThe Sentry, Golden Guardian
  18. White Widow, Free AgentWhite Widow, Free Agent
  19. Attuma, Atlantean WarlordAttuma, Atlantean Warlord
  20. Echo, Perceptive ProdigyEcho, Perceptive Prodigy
  21. Falcon, Winged WonderFalcon, Winged Wonder
  22. Iron Lad, Diverging DestinyIron Lad, Diverging Destiny
  23. Ironheart, Clever ChampionIronheart, Clever Champion
  24. Justice, Vance AstrovikJustice, Vance Astrovik
  25. Kang the ConquerorKang the Conqueror
  26. Kid LokiKid Loki
  27. Leader, Super-GeniusLeader, Super-Genius
  28. Mister Fantastic, Reed RichardsMister Fantastic, Reed Richards
  29. Ms. Marvel, Kamala KhanMs. Marvel, Kamala Khan
  30. Shuri, Wakandan InventorShuri, Wakandan Inventor
  31. Stature, Size ShifterStature, Size Shifter
  32. The Wondrous WaspThe Wondrous Wasp
  33. Wiccan, Rising MagicianWiccan, Rising Magician
  34. Arnim Zola, Bio-FanaticArnim Zola, Bio-Fanatic
  35. Baron Strucker, HYDRA OverlordBaron Strucker, HYDRA Overlord
  36. Black Widow, Super SpyBlack Widow, Super Spy
  37. Crossbones, Malicious MercenaryCrossbones, Malicious Mercenary
  38. Elektra, Daughter of the HandElektra, Daughter of the Hand
  39. Grim Reaper, Lethal LegionnaireGrim Reaper, Lethal Legionnaire
  40. Klaw, Sonic SubjugatorKlaw, Sonic Subjugator
  41. Madame MasqueMadame Masque
  42. M.O.D.O.K.M.O.D.O.K.
  43. Moonstone, Harsh MistressMoonstone, Harsh Mistress
  44. Ronin, Shadow StalkerRonin, Shadow Stalker
  45. Swordsman, Sharp ScoundrelSwordsman, Sharp Scoundrel
  46. The Masters of EvilThe Masters of Evil
  47. Whiplash, Vengeful EngineerWhiplash, Vengeful Engineer
  48. Yellowjacket, Heartless MarauderYellowjacket, Heartless Marauder
  49. Fin Fang FoomFin Fang Foom
  50. Hawkeye, Master MarksmanHawkeye, Master Marksman
  51. Hawkeye, Young AvengerHawkeye, Young Avenger
  52. Human Torch, Johnny StormHuman Torch, Johnny Storm
  53. Iron Fist, Living WeaponIron Fist, Living Weapon
  54. Jessica Jones, Private EyeJessica Jones, Private Eye
  55. Loki LaufeysonLoki Laufeyson
  56. Misty Knight, Hero for HireMisty Knight, Hero for Hire
  57. Quicksilver, Brash BlurQuicksilver, Brash Blur
  58. Red HulkRed Hulk
  59. Speed, Young AvengerSpeed, Young Avenger
  60. Wonder Man, Hollywood HeroWonder Man, Hollywood Hero
  61. Doc Samson, Super PsychiatristDoc Samson, Super Psychiatrist
  62. Hellcat, Undying VigilanteHellcat, Undying Vigilante
  63. Hercules, Prince of PowerHercules, Prince of Power
  64. Hulkling, Burgeoning BruiserHulkling, Burgeoning Bruiser
  65. Ka-Zar of the Savage LandKa-Zar of the Savage Land
  66. Mister Hyde, Monster WithinMister Hyde, Monster Within
  67. Mole Man, Moloid MasterMole Man, Moloid Master
  68. Reptil, DinomorpherReptil, Dinomorpher
  69. Rick Jones, Destined SidekickRick Jones, Destined Sidekick
  70. Shang-Chi, Master of Kung FuShang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu
  71. She-Hulk, Jade DefenderShe-Hulk, Jade Defender
  72. The Thing, Ben GrimmThe Thing, Ben Grimm
  73. Tigra, Feline FuryTigra, Feline Fury
  74. White Tiger, Ava AyalaWhite Tiger, Ava Ayala
  75. Super-AdaptoidSuper-Adaptoid
  76. The VisionThe Vision
  77. Viv Vision, Teen SynthezoidViv Vision, Teen Synthezoid

Eight-for-85 is a pretty lousy batting average, it must be said. However, more than half of those are commanders designed for Limited, not Constructed. We should see plenty more Overs in the mono-color commanders of Marvel Super Heroes Commander to come in Part 2, and even more in the multicolor commanders from both sets coming in Part 3. See you then!

Kyle Massa

Kyle Massa


Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Loki, God of Mischief. You can find him on Substack at www.substack.com/@wildcardmtg or on YouTube at @WildcardMTG.

Want more Commander content, right in your inbox?
To stay on top of all our news, features, and deck techs, sign up for our EDHRECap e-mail newsletter.

EDHREC Code of Conduct

Your opinions are welcome. We love hearing what you think about Magic! We ask that you are always respectful when commenting. Please keep in mind how your comments could be interpreted by others. Personal attacks on our writers or other commenters will not be tolerated. Your comments may be removed if your language could be interpreted as aggressive or disrespectful. You may also be banned from writing further comments.