The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Marvel Super Heroes Commanders, Part 3

by
Kyle Massa
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Marvel Super Heroes Commanders, Part 3

Ant-Man, Colony CommanderAnt-Man, Colony Commander | Art by Nathaniel Himawan

Just like a supervillain, just when you think I'm done, I'm back for more. That's right...we've got a third part to the Marvel Super Heroes Over/Under!

In this series, I predict how popular new commanders will become exactly one year after their printing. It's based on a line of 1,200 decks, so each commander gets an "Over" or "Under" that line. I've also got a Can't-Miss Pick, which is my most confident (and sometimes foolhardy) selection of the set.

If you missed them, Part 1 and Part 2 went up earlier, covering the base set mono-color commanders and the commander product mono-color commanders, respectively. Today, we'll be looking at all of the multicolor legends.

A Note on the Commons and Uncommons

Like our last two installments, I'm not bothering with analysis for every single commander (trust me, I tried). With 362 legendary creatures, there are simply too many. I'll still give everyone an Over or Under — just look for them at the bottom. Onward!

Black Bolt, Inhuman KingBlack Bolt, Inhuman King

Black Bolt, Inhuman King

Some have said I have a lethal voice at karaoke. And trust me — it doesn't make you popular.

My prediction: Under

Captain America, Living LegendCaptain America, Living Legend

Captain America, Living Legend

I know I just said I'm not writing about uncommons, but I'll make an exception for Cap. The pseudo-vigilance is nice, but add in turbo charging your spacecrafts, crewing multiple vehicles, and turning your Palladium MyrPalladium Myr into more mana than Thran DynamoThran Dynamo? Now that's how you become a living legend.

My prediction: Over

Dragon Man, Reformed RobotDragon Man, Reformed Robot

Dragon Man, Reformed Robot

A lot of text that essentially boils down to giant vanilla flyer.

My prediction: Under

King T'ChallaKing T'Challa

King T'Challa

I'd play the front side on its own. I'd play the back side on its own. Glue them together and you've got one kingly king.

My prediction: Over

Shang-Chi and the Ten RingsShang-Chi and the Ten Rings

Shang-Chi and the Ten Rings

Although 10 counters is flavorful, it takes a long time to get there—especially on a commander with no self-protection.

My prediction: Under

Namor, Atlantean KingNamor, Atlantean King

Namor, Atlantean King

Namor the Sub-MarinerNamor the Sub-Mariner seems way better to me. And, speaking as someone who hasn't followed the comics, that flavor text is baffling.

My prediction: Under

The Mighty Thor, Jane FosterThe Mighty Thor, Jane Foster

The Mighty Thor, Jane Foster

It's rare that we see equipment-matters in white-blue, so I think that novelty alone will draw deckbuilders. And it doesn't hurt that she's just flat out good.

My prediction: Over

Willie Lumpkin, PostmanWillie Lumpkin, Postman

Willie Lumpkin, Postman

I've got a message for you...

My message: Under

Kang PrimeKang Prime

Kang Prime

I do love me some suspend, but I haven't seen much love for this commander online.

My prediction: Under

Scientist Supreme of A.I.M.Scientist Supreme of A.I.M.

Scientist Supreme of A.I.M.

This card is almost always a last pick in Marvel Super Heroes Draft. Seems like a bad sign.

My prediction: Under

Taskmaster, Mercenary MimicTaskmaster, Mercenary Mimic

Taskmaster, Mercenary Mimic

We pretty much just got this card in Superior Spider-ManSuperior Spider-Man, and since that hasn't gone Over yet, I doubt this will, either.

My prediction: Under

Ultron, UnlimitedUltron, Unlimited

Ultron, Unlimited

Connive isn't my favorite mechanic, but for a one-mana 2/2 every time, I might change my mind.

My prediction: Over

Ares, God of WarAres, God of War

Ares, God of War

Do you like attacking? Do you hate when your attackers die? Ares has you covered either way.

My prediction: Over

The Ruinous Wrecking CrewThe Ruinous Wrecking Crew

The Ruinous Wrecking Crew

A lot of options, but none are all that appealing, even if you get all four at once.

My prediction: Under

Typhoid Mary, FracturedTyphoid Mary, Fractured

Typhoid Mary, Fractured

Mary doesn't need commander decks — she needs a doctor. Perhaps multiple doctors.

My prediction: Under

Absorbing Man and TitaniaAbsorbing Man and Titania

Absorbing Man and Titania

If this was printed as in in-universe pair (Kogla and Bruse Tarl, for instance), I think it would be a hit. But even among comic book fans, these two feel a little obscure.

My prediction: Under

Wolverine, Fierce FighterWolverine, Fierce Fighter

Wolverine, Fierce Fighter

A flavor win, but not nearly as cool as Wolverine, Best There IsWolverine, Best There Is. And when can we expect Hugh Jackman to attend a MagicCon?

My prediction: Under

Bast, Panther GoddessBast, Panther Goddess

Bast, Panther Goddess

I really want to build a Cat Typal deck with this at the helm, because if I was a Simpsons character, I'd be the Crazy Cat Lady. But I speak for the people, and although the people like cats, I don't think they like them that much.

My prediction: Under

Jennifer WaltersJennifer Walters

Jennifer Walters

I'm telling you, She-Hulk was a better show than people give it credit for. But this isn't a review of Marvel Television — it's a review of commanders. And what a commander this is!

She-Hulk is the fight spell queen. The main drawback of spells like BushwhackBushwhack is that opponents can save their fighter by removing yours. Not when She-Hulk's around. Nobody can object while you have the floor, and furthermore, she'll essentially double up on that fight damage. Judge Judy would approve.

My prediction: Over

Okoye, Mighty and AdoredOkoye, Mighty and Adored

Okoye, Mighty and Adored

Excellent flavor, but I doubt Okoye will unseat Jared Carthalion, True HeirJared Carthalion, True Heir from this general theme.

My prediction: Under

Shuri, the Black PantherShuri, the Black Panther

Shuri, the Black Panther

A fine commander, but most players will likely opt for her brother (a.k.a. the face commander for this precon).

My prediction: Under

Storm, Queen of WakandaStorm, Queen of Wakanda

Storm, Queen of Wakanda

There's a better version of Storm coming soon.

My prediction: Under

Storm, WindriderStorm, Windrider

Storm, Windrider

Told you she'd be here soon.

I got absolutely housed by this card at my prerelease, so maybe it's my stinging wounds talking. But Storm locks down many of the premier threats in the format, including Kaalia of the VastKaalia of the Vast, Korvold, Fae-Cursed KingKorvold, Fae-Cursed King, and Ureni of the UnwrittenUreni of the Unwritten.

My prediction: Over

T'Chaka, Venerable KingT'Chaka, Venerable King

T'Chaka, Venerable King

Great king, middling Magic card.

My prediction: Under

T'Challa, the Black PantherT'Challa, the Black Panther

T'Challa, the Black Panther

He's a face commander of what promise to be some of the most popular retail precons around, not to mention the star of a massive movie. And hey, it doesn't hurt that he introduces a new archetype to these colors, either.

My prediction: Under

Cloak and Dagger, EntwinedCloak and Dagger, Entwined

Cloak and Dagger, Entwined

I like Banisher Priest — but not enough to place it in the command zone.

My prediction: Under

The Kingpin of CrimeThe Kingpin of Crime

The Kingpin of Crime

Extort is popular, and toughness-matters is even more so. On Kingpin, they go together better than a white suit and a bald head.

My prediction: Over

Winter Soldier, Icy AssassinWinter Soldier, Icy Assassin

Winter Soldier, Icy Assassin

Orzhov equipment is promising, but less so than on, say The Mighty Thor, Jane FosterThe Mighty Thor, Jane Foster, since Winter Soldier offers no inherent card advantage.

My prediction: Under

Ant-Man, Elusive AvengerAnt-Man, Elusive Avenger

Ant-Man, Elusive Avenger

Attack, no blockers, pump, make Treasures. Seems simple enough — until your opponents two-for-one you with instant-speed removal. I'd rather not get squashed.

My prediction: Under

Astonishing Spider-ManAstonishing Spider-Man

Astonishing Spider-Man

This is like when customer service offers a voucher for a restaurant to apologize for the food poisoning. Spider-Man already made everyone sick the first time. Nobody wants more.

My prediction: Under

Hawkeye, Avenging ArcherHawkeye, Avenging Archer

Hawkeye, Avenging Archer

This plus Basilisk CollarBasilisk Collar and Thornbite StaffThornbite Staff is kinda sick, but no opponents in their right minds will ever allow such a thing.

My prediction: Under

Quicksilver, SpeedsterQuicksilver, Speedster

Quicksilver, Speedster

Why yes, I would enjoy a Vedalken OrreryVedalken Orrery in the command zone. Thank you for asking, Quicksilver!

My prediction: Over

Red Ghost, Intangible GeniusRed Ghost, Intangible Genius

Red Ghost, Intangible Genius

The draw-two thing is hit-and-miss. In this case, I think it's more miss than hit. Look for this dude on the next season of Chimp Crazy.

My prediction: Under

Scarlet Witch, Chaotic AvengerScarlet Witch, Chaotic Avenger

Scarlet Witch, Chaotic Avenger

Not the easiest train to get rolling, but once you do, not even reality itself can slow you down.

My prediction: Over

The Squadron SinisterThe Squadron Sinister

The Squadron Sinister

Spoiler: The villains always lose.

My prediction: Under

Tony StarkTony Stark

Tony Stark

I opened Mr. Stark here at the prerelease, and playing him confirmed my suspicions: This card is sweet. Play him early to draw cards, flip him late to beat down. I dropped a free Kree SentinelKree Sentinel at my event, but I'm sure you can do better. Blightsteel ColossusBlightsteel Colossus, anyone?

My prediction: Over

The Serpent SocietyThe Serpent Society

The Serpent Society

People were way more into Fynn, the FangbearerFynn, the Fangbearer than I anticipated. In fact, it's mono-green's most popular commander. So maybe deathtouch is the new flying?

My prediction: Over

Black Widow, Agile AvengerBlack Widow, Agile Avenger

Black Widow, Agile Avenger

A unique effect in white-red, but more supportive than flashy.

My prediction: Under

Captain Marvel, Apex AvengerCaptain Marvel, Apex Avenger

Captain Marvel, Apex Avenger

I know seven mana in Boros is a tall order, but man, does Captain Marvel pay you back. This with Crystalline GiantCrystalline Giant, The OzolithThe Ozolith, or any kind of proliferation is just plain nasty.

My prediction: Over

Daredevil, Man Without FearDaredevil, Man Without Fear

Daredevil, Man Without Fear

The wording is a little confusing here, but basically, you draw a free card whenever you attack, plus get a bonus if it happens to be a Hero. No wonder he's fearless.

My prediction: Over

Monica RambeauMonica Rambeau

Monica Rambeau

No enters-the-battlefield effect, but the hexproof on Photon makes up for that. And once you untap, you can absolutely obliterate your opponents, especially with zero-cost spells like Urza's BaubleUrza's Bauble and efficient token makers like Kuldotha RebirthKuldotha Rebirth.

My prediction: Over

Absorbing ManAbsorbing Man

Absorbing Man

This weirdo copies lands, so you could run Tanglepool BridgeTanglepool Bridge just to make him indestructible. Seems cute, but less absorbing than, say, a really good beach read.

My prediction: Under

Moon Girl and Devil DinosaurMoon Girl and Devil Dinosaur

Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur

Everything about this card is confusing, from the text to the flavor to the rollerblading child teaming up with a literal tyrannosaurus. And couldn't we at least get a 7/7 to meet the commander damage magic number?

My prediction: Under

The Astonishing Ant-ManThe Astonishing Ant-Man

The Astonishing Ant-Man

This dude does an astonishingly bad impression of Ghave, Guru of SporesGhave, Guru of Spores.

My prediction: Under

Doctor Doom, King of LatveriaDoctor Doom, King of Latveria

Doctor Doom, King of Latveria

If this was Comic-Con, Doom would rip off his mask to reveal Robert Downey, Jr. Alas, this is just a Magic card — but what a Magic card it is. That first line of text is powerful enough without anything else. I’ve been trying to make Tectonic ReformationTectonic Reformation work for years, and I think this commander unlocks it. The rest is just gravy — or Downey, as it were.

My prediction: Over (Can't-Miss Pick)

Loki, the DeceiverLoki, the Deceiver

Loki, the Deceiver

I'm wary of building around villains, but everybody likes drawing cards, and doubling effects tend to be popular. So...I guess I'm in?

My prediction: A Hesitant Over

Captain America, Team LeaderCaptain America, Team Leader

Captain America, Team Leader

This is like the 10th Cap card in the set, and it's somehow more bland than Captain America, Steve RogersCaptain America, Steve Rogers.

Alright, that's probably a little strong. A counter and a couple keywords are good. I shouldn't complain. Plus, this is the face commander of the Avengers Assemble deck, not to mention one of Marvel’s most beloved characters. Plus, we just celebrated the Fourth of July here in the States, so the residual patriotism can't hurt.

My prediction: Over

Director Nick FuryDirector Nick Fury

Director Nick Fury

Again, I'm concerned about this Hero/Villain thing. Those types are almost exclusive to the Marvel Universes Beyond properties, so if you're sick of Marvel, you're probably not playing a whole deck devoted to it.

My prediction: Under

Bruce BannerBruce Banner

Bruce Banner

Any card that quadruples the value of garbo like CaltropsCaltrops overnight must be destined for popularity, and that's certainly the case for the Hulk. Banner, not so much — but Hulk, totally. Note that there's no limit on those additional combat steps, which makes Hulk a lot like Anzrag, the Quake-MoleAnzrag, the Quake-Mole, which is elite company. Trust me, I know from experience; my good pal Jeremy runs the Mole, and it's traumatizing.

My prediction: Over

Crystal, Inhuman PrincessCrystal, Inhuman Princess

Crystal, Inhuman Princess

This feels like a spiritual successor to Aragorn, the UniterAragorn, the Uniter, which is funny, because Marvel could not be further from Middle-earth. Aragorn leads five figures of decks, so I like Crystal's chances at crystallizing her place in our format.

My prediction: Over

Invisible WomanInvisible Woman

Invisible Woman

A 0/3 Wall token is like a bumper sticker: I'm not paying for it, but I'll use it if it's free. And that’s not even counting the attack trigger, which can threaten lethal commander damage, given the proper circumstances.

My prediction: Over

Mister FantasticMister Fantastic

Mister Fantastic

There's no keyword for freaky inhuman bodily stretching, so reach will do. And that's the least of what Mr. Fantastic offers: He plays offense and defense, draws cards, and turns one annoying Rhystic StudyRhystic Study trigger into three times the annoyance.

My prediction: Over

Human TorchHuman Torch

Human Torch

One can imagine some nasty starts with Johnny Storm here. How about Sol RingSol Ring into Human TorchHuman Torch, then attack for a hasty six points of commander damage? He only hits harder with counters, equipment, and other modifications, and he can even spread the love with that triggered ability. They forgot to cram his catchphrase in there, but I suppose we can’t have it all.

My prediction: Over

Power PackPower Pack

Power Pack

Godspeed to whoever runs this daycare. At least they're probably well-paid, because this commander's going to make bank. Four relevant keywords and a free spell every turn? Now that's a pack of power.

My prediction: Over

The Fantastic FourThe Fantastic Four

The Fantastic Four

When you design a card that represents four colors of mana, it's actually hard not to make it impactful. Case in point: This card.

My prediction: Over

The ThingThe Thing

The Thing

Rounding out the individual treatments of the Fantastic Four, we've got the group's ugliest member — and things will get even uglier for your opponents. Once you start stacking and doubling those +1/+1 counters — not to mention loyalty counters on your planeswalkers, or ascendancy counters on your Simic AscendancySimic Ascendancy — the Thing will take things out of hand. Quickly.

My prediction: Over

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.

You get what you pay for, so when you're paying WUBRG, you should expect to get a lot. I'm especially intrigued by threatening double-faced cards that are otherwise difficult to flip, like Elbrus, the Binding BladeElbrus, the Binding Blade.

My prediction: Over

Super-SkrullSuper-Skrull

Super-Skrull

I see. So Kenrith, the Returned KingKenrith, the Returned King was a Skrull sleeper agent all along.

My prediction: Over

Thanos, the Mad TitanThanos, the Mad Titan

Thanos, the Mad Titan

I'm working on a deck tech for this purple people eater, and let me tell you, he's intriguing. My mind went immediately to companionship with Obosh, the PreypiercerObosh, the Preypiercer, although you could probably run him straight-up as a pseudo-six-color commander, too. He might look like Grimace, but he's a lot meaner.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (30)

  1. Captain America, Living LegendCaptain America, Living Legend
  2. King T'ChallaKing T'Challa
  3. The Mighty Thor, Jane FosterThe Mighty Thor, Jane Foster
  4. Ultron, UnlimitedUltron, Unlimited
  5. Ares, God of WarAres, God of War
  6. Jennifer WaltersJennifer Walters
  7. Storm, WindriderStorm, Windrider
  8. T'Challa, the Black PantherT'Challa, the Black Panther
  9. The Kingpin of CrimeThe Kingpin of Crime
  10. Quicksilver, SpeedsterQuicksilver, Speedster
  11. Scarlet Witch, Chaotic AvengerScarlet Witch, Chaotic Avenger
  12. Tony StarkTony Stark
  13. The Serpent SocietyThe Serpent Society
  14. Captain Marvel, Apex AvengerCaptain Marvel, Apex Avenger
  15. Daredevil, Man Without FearDaredevil, Man Without Fear
  16. Monica RambeauMonica Rambeau
  17. Doctor Doom, King of LatveriaDoctor Doom, King of Latveria (Can't-Miss Pick)
  18. Loki, the DeceiverLoki, the Deceiver
  19. Captain America, Team LeaderCaptain America, Team Leader
  20. Bruce BannerBruce Banner
  21. Crystal, Inhuman PrincessCrystal, Inhuman Princess
  22. Invisible WomanInvisible Woman
  23. Mister FantasticMister Fantastic
  24. Human TorchHuman Torch
  25. Power PackPower Pack
  26. The Fantastic FourThe Fantastic Four
  27. The ThingThe Thing
  28. Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.
  29. Super-SkrullSuper-Skrull
  30. Thanos, the Mad TitanThanos, the Mad Titan

Under (63)

  1. Black Bolt, Inhuman KingBlack Bolt, Inhuman King
  2. Dragon Man, Reformed RobotDragon Man, Reformed Robot
  3. Namor, Atlantean KingNamor, Atlantean King
  4. Shang-Chi and the Ten RingsShang-Chi and the Ten Rings
  5. Shuri, Vibranium TechnologistShuri, Vibranium Technologist
  6. Spider-Woman, Secret AgentSpider-Woman, Secret Agent
  7. War Machine, James RhodesWar Machine, James Rhodes
  8. Willie Lumpkin, PostmanWillie Lumpkin, Postman
  9. Ghost, Spectral SaboteurGhost, Spectral Saboteur
  10. Kang PrimeKang Prime
  11. Kang, Temporal TyrantKang, Temporal Tyrant
  12. Scientist Supreme of A.I.M.Scientist Supreme of A.I.M.
  13. Taskmaster, Mercenary MimicTaskmaster, Mercenary Mimic
  14. Tiger Shark, Abyssal HunterTiger Shark, Abyssal Hunter
  15. Bullseye, Death DealerBullseye, Death Dealer
  16. Madame HydraMadame Hydra
  17. The Ruinous Wrecking CrewThe Ruinous Wrecking Crew
  18. Typhoid Mary, FracturedTyphoid Mary, Fractured
  19. Abomination, Terrifying TitanAbomination, Terrifying Titan
  20. Absorbing Man and TitaniaAbsorbing Man and Titania
  21. Gert and Old Lace, RunawaysGert and Old Lace, Runaways
  22. Hulk, Gamma GoliathHulk, Gamma Goliath
  23. Stature, Young AvengerStature, Young Avenger
  24. Wolverine, Fierce FighterWolverine, Fierce Fighter
  25. Bast, Panther GoddessBast, Panther Goddess
  26. Black Panther, VanguardBlack Panther, Vanguard
  27. Ms. Marvel, Elastic AllyMs. Marvel, Elastic Ally
  28. Okoye, Mighty and AdoredOkoye, Mighty and Adored
  29. She-Hulk, Attorney-at-LawShe-Hulk, Attorney-at-Law
  30. Shuri, the Black PantherShuri, the Black Panther
  31. Spider-Man, To the RescueSpider-Man, To the Rescue
  32. Storm, Queen of WakandaStorm, Queen of Wakanda
  33. T'Chaka, Venerable KingT'Chaka, Venerable King
  34. Black Widow, Double AgentBlack Widow, Double Agent
  35. Cloak and Dagger, EntwinedCloak and Dagger, Entwined
  36. U.S.Agent, John WalkerU.S.Agent, John Walker
  37. Winter Soldier, Icy AssassinWinter Soldier, Icy Assassin
  38. Ant-Man, Elusive AvengerAnt-Man, Elusive Avenger
  39. Astonishing Spider-ManAstonishing Spider-Man
  40. Hawkeye, Avenging ArcherHawkeye, Avenging Archer
  41. Iceman and FirestarIceman and Firestar
  42. Iron Lad, Young AvengerIron Lad, Young Avenger
  43. Iron Man, Master of MachinesIron Man, Master of Machines
  44. Red Ghost, Intangible GeniusRed Ghost, Intangible Genius
  45. Speedball, New WarriorSpeedball, New Warrior
  46. The Squadron SinisterThe Squadron Sinister
  47. Atlas, Sizable StoogeAtlas, Sizable Stooge
  48. Killmonger, Scourge of WakandaKillmonger, Scourge of Wakanda
  49. Titania, Rugged RumblerTitania, Rugged Rumbler
  50. Black Widow, Agile AvengerBlack Widow, Agile Avenger
  51. Marvel Boy, Noh-VarrMarvel Boy, Noh-Varr
  52. Patriot, Young AvengerPatriot, Young Avenger
  53. Thor OdinsonThor Odinson
  54. War Machine, Legacy of IronWar Machine, Legacy of Iron
  55. Absorbing ManAbsorbing Man
  56. Ant-Man, Colony CommanderAnt-Man, Colony Commander
  57. Ant-Man, Reformed RogueAnt-Man, Reformed Rogue
  58. Beast, Erudite AerialistBeast, Erudite Aerialist
  59. Brawn, Amadeus ChoBrawn, Amadeus Cho
  60. Moon Girl and Devil DinosaurMoon Girl and Devil Dinosaur
  61. The Astonishing Ant-ManThe Astonishing Ant-Man
  62. Director Nick FuryDirector Nick Fury
  63. Karolina Dean, RunawayKarolina Dean, Runaway

I like new commanders, but I also like ice cream — and if I'd overloaded on ice cream like this set overloaded on commanders, I'd be in the hospital. Still, for those who stuck around, I hope you enjoyed the biggest Over/Under in the history of Over/Unders. I appreciate your readership!

That said, if The Hobbit has 300 more commanders, I might be retiring.

Kyle Massa

Kyle Massa


Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Loki, God of Mischief. You can find him on Substack at www.substack.com/@wildcardmtg or on YouTube at @WildcardMTG.

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