(Bilbo, Retired Burglar | Art by Livia Prima)

There Is Only One Lord of the Ring (And It's Not Me)

Time to return to Middle-earth (and not because we're filming The Hobbit). It's been a year since The Lord of the Rings (LOTR) collided with Magic: The Gathering. Let's see how my predictions fared.

As a refresher, I analyzed every new commander from LOTR last year (yes, all 100 or so of them) and predicted whether they'd end a year with Over or Under 1200 decks. If you want to learn more about my selections, you can read last year's articles here and here. Otherwise, keep reading, since I'll be quoting the choicest bits throughout.

Whew, that felt like all the exposition pre-Rivendell. Ready to actually get this Fellowship started?

Overall Impressions

• Total number of commanders: 125
• Total number of commander decks: 136,087
• Average commander deck count: 1,089
• Most decks: Sauron, the Dark Lord (15,708 decks)
• Fewest decks: Éomer of the Riddermark (8 decks)

Surprisingly, the average commander from this set fell short of the 1200 mark. Yet that number belies LOTR's true popularity, which was quite high. Maybe it was just The One Ring fever, but it seemed like everyone was opening packs from this set.

From a successes standpoint, this set delivered on the feel and flavor of Middle-earth. The artwork is gorgeous, the mechanical references are resonant, and we get a comprehensive view of the scenery and cultures of Tolkien's masterwork. What's more, I think the designers did a great job appealing to fans of both the books and the films, without leaning too hard into either audience. They even represented the passage of time smartly by reserving some of the appendices content for the Commander product (e.g. Aragorn, King of Gondor and Éomer, King of Rohan. Overall, it's a fun visit to another IP that still feels like Magic—and far more so than most.

That said, I think the set's mechanics are its biggest flaw. Many players were iffy on the Ring-Temptation mechanic when it debuted, and playing with it didn't help overmuch. It's wordy, confusing for newer players, and not even flavorfully sound, since the Ring in the books was a source of power, yes, but corruption, too. Where, I ask, is my corruption?

Also, it needs to be said, there were far too many legends in this set. I get that Middle-earth has lots of celebs, but did we really need a Landroval card? Does anyone even remember who Landroval is? More is often better, but with a whopping 125 legendary creatures (the most for any single set, ever), many interesting commanders were overshadowed. We'll take a look at some of them soon. But first...

My Solid Selections

Let's begin with one of my two Can't-Miss Picks. I usually only have one per set, but in a set with this many commanders, I figured you'd cut me some slack.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 7,875

Last year I called Shelob "instantly the best Spider typal commander we've ever had," and indeed, she eclipsed Ishkanah, Grafwidow by several thousand decks. Also neat to see players finding creative ways to take advantage of the Food token ability, such as Greta, Sweettooth Scourge and Gyome, Master Chef. A sweet commander—and our next one is even sweeter.

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,788

This was our other Can't-Miss Pick, and he got some excellent support from recent sets, including Kambal, Profiteering Mayor from Outlaws of Thunder Junction and Ocelot Pride from Modern Horizons 3. Honestly, he probably didn't even need it. Last year, I predicted "Bilbo's ability will activate for half of EDH players half as well as they should like." I have no statistics on that, but it seems many players tried nonetheless.

The next correct Over I'd like to draw your attention to is...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 8,254

After jokingly suggesting that players play Dirtwater Wraith to supplement their wraith count, here was my honest analysis:

"Lord of the Nazgûlis an army-in-a-can, especially with cantrips, of which there's no shortage in blue."

Indeed, the cantrip theme is by far the most popular for this commander, with more than 1200 decks in that category alone. I mean, compare this to a similar commander like Talrand, Sky Summoner, which used to be the gold standard for spellslinger commanders. Prime example of power creep.

This next one surprised me...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 1,208

That's just eight decks over the mark, which is about as close as it gets. You'd think a typal commander with a fairly novel ability would do better, so I wonder why this didn't. Yet maybe I answered my own question last year...

"Seven mana is expensive, but the payoff is undeniably sweet, especially if you've built out a board of big Ents—I mean, Treefolk."

Not the Ent/Treefolk thing—the seven-mana thing. Perhaps that was just too much mana for a commander to gain any more traction than the bare minimum, even in the game's best ramping color.

For my final solid selection, I'd like to turn your attention toward my favorite character from LOTR...

Just kidding. It's this guy...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 12,815

Before we dig in, let's see what I wrote last year...

"Four-color commanders are rare, and this one is especially sweet. He just couldn't wait to be king."

Huh. That's pretty sparse, not to mention light on analysis. And I didn't even make a reference to the correct IP. But hey, cut me some slack—when you're reviewing this many commanders, you can't get verbose.

With a commander like this, you'd usually want to play as many five-color spells as possible to get maximum value from all four triggers. Aragorn is, however, missing black, and spells costing exactly WURG are rare (as noted in my terse analysis). Therefore, players got creative by playing as many two- and three-color commanders as possible. Just browse his page and see all that gold.

Alright, enough of the good stuff. Let's see where I erred. And in this set, I erred a lot.

My Big Mistakes

By percentage, my selections weren't too far off from usual this set. Yet still, 34 flubs is kind of a lot. The vast majority of them were Over predictions that went Under (28), leaving far fewer Unders going Over (6). Let's begin with one of the worst of the former.

My prediction: Over

Final deck count: 36

This is bad. I mean, this is really bad. And my reasoning for selecting it wasn't much better:

"Gimli wanted a single golden hair, but these options are much better."

Hindsight is indeed 20/20, but it's never foresight. These options aren't all that game-breaking, especially when you constantly need to swing with your 4/4 to get them. That pick was bad, and this one might've been worse...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 98

I don't care to speculate who the real "Greatest of the Eagles" is, because I hate the Philadelphia Eagles with a burning passion. Plus, I'm not bummed about the pick so much as my methodology. Here's what I wrote:

"Despite not in fact being a snow cone, Gwaihir seems both snowbally and sweet. With enough 3+ power lifelinkers (or just recurring lifegain), I daresay this should be easy to trigger."

Sound logic, but I missed an obvious comparison: Griffin Aerie. It's almost exactly the same card, yet it appears in less than 1% of EDH decks, and appeared in even less when I reviewed this set a year ago. Should've used that knowledge last year to adjust my pick. Moving on...

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 958

After predicting Ayula, Queen Among Bears incorrectly in the original Modern Horizons, I promised myself I'd never underestimate obscure typal commanders again. Plus, there was this to consider:

"The inside joke alone is worth the Over."

Yet still, Shadowfax came almost 300 decks short of the mark. I guess Horses really are just too undersupported. I mean, glancing through the Shadowfax page, I see Armored Warhorse appearing in 39% of decks. Yikes.

Now we move from horse to octopus.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,293

Close. So close! If only 94 deckbuilders hadn't built this deck, I could've been right! Here was my argument against this commander:

"How the heck do you consistently draw cards on opponents' turns? Consecrated Sphinx, Mind's Eye, and Faerie Mastermind are all I can come up with. Without them, The Watcher just watches."

The key word here is "consistently." All three of the cards I mentioned appear in most Watcher decks, but I purposely neglected to mention Brainstorm, Opt, Frantic Search, and similar cards, since they're all one-time activations. Yet still, all three of those cards appear in more than 66% of Watcher decks. I guess more people are up for the challenge than I thought.

For our final incorrect selection, let's bring in the source material's greatest character.

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 4,321

How did I get this prediction so very wrong? Let's start with last year's analysis...

"We be nice to them if they be nice to us! Problem is, Ring-tempting and land-sealing aren't nice enough to earn 1200."

Factually false. But, to be fair, there's really no overlap between either halves of this Venn diagram. Ring-tempting is good, free ramp is good, and when you combine them with more Ring-tempting (see Call of the Ring in 92% of Sméagol decks) and landfall (see Springheart Nantuko in 63%), you start to get the picture. Either that, or you start hacking up a hairball like Gollum.

Recap

Correct Picks (85)

1. Gandalf the White - Over (2,033 decks)
2. Fangorn, Tree Shepherd - Over (1,208 decks)
3. Legolas, Master Archer - Over (1,631 decks)
4. Lord of the Nazgûl - Over (8,254 decks)
5. The Balrog, Durin's Bane - Over (1,498 decks)
6. Samwise Gamgee - Over (2,064 decks)
7. King of the Oathbreakers - Over (2,228 decks)
8. Gandalf the Grey - Over (1,475 decks)
9. Shelob, Child of Ungoliant - Over, Can't Miss Pick! (7,875 decks)
10. Círdan the Shipwright - Over (1,360 decks)
11. Galadriel, Elven-Queen - Over (1,584 decks)
12. Saruman of Many Colors - Over (3,104 decks)
13. Saruman, the White Hand - Over (4,688 decks)
14. Sauron, Lord of the Rings - Over (2,619 decks)
15. Sauron, the Dark Lord - Over (15,708 decks)
16. Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant - Over, Can't Miss Pick! (3,788 decks)
17. Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit + Sam, Loyal Attendant - Over (10,896 decks)
18. Aragorn, King of Gondor - Over (3,128 decks)
19. Éowyn, Shieldmaiden - Over (6,171 decks)
20. Aragorn, the Uniter - Over (12,815 decks)
21. Tom Bombadil - Over (10,644 decks)
22. Beregond of the Guard - Under (44 decks)
23. Bill the Pony - Under (423 decks)
24. Boromir, Warden of the Tower - Under (63 decks)
25. Éowyn, Lady of Rohan - Under (39 decks)
26. Faramir, Field Commander - Under (23 decks)
27. Frodo, Determined Hero - Under (286 decks)
28. Gandalf, White Rider - Under (120 decks)
29. Gilraen, Dúnedain Protector - Under (61 decks)
30. Landroval, Horizon Witness - Under (11 decks)
31. Rosie Cotton of South Lane - Under (144 decks)
32. Samwise the Stouthearted - Under (51 decks)
33. Saradoc, Master of Buckland - Under (45 decks)
34. Bill Ferny, Bree Swindler - Under (214 decks)
35. Elrond, Lord of Rivendell - Under (40 decks)
36. Gandalf, Friend of the Shire - Under (341 decks)
37. Meneldor, Swift Savior - Under (55 decks)
38. Monstrosity of the Lake - Under (20 decks)
39. Saruman the White - Under (46 decks)
40. Gollum, Patient Plotter - Under (129 decks)
41. Gorbag of Minas Morgul - Under (84 decks)
42. Gothmog, Morgul Lieutenant - Under (44 decks)
43. Gríma Wormtongue - Under (34 decks)
44. Lobelia, Defender of Bag End - Under (171 decks)
45. Lobelia Sackville-Baggins - Under (39 decks)
46. Sauron, the Necromancer - Under (572 decks)
47. Shelob, Dread Weaver - Under (113 decks)
48. Witch-king, Bringer of Ruin - Under (26 decks)
49. Éomer, Marshal of Rohan - Under (81 decks)
50. Éomer of the Riddermark - Under (8 decks)
51. Erkenbrand, Lord of Westfold - Under (42 decks)
52. Gimli, Counter of Kills - Under (125 decks)
53. Gimli of the Glittering Caves - Under (219 decks)
54. Grishnákh, Brash Instigator - Under (24 decks)
55. Arwen, Weaver of Hope - Under (405 decks)
56. Celeborn the Wise - Under (17 decks)
57. Elanor Gardner - Under (38 decks)
58. Glorfindel, Dauntless Rescuer - Under (14 decks)
59. Haldir, Lórien Lieutenant - Under (67 decks)
60. Legolas Greenleaf - Under (32 decks)
61. Meriadoc Brandybuck - Under (18 decks)
62. Quickbeam, Upstart Ent - Under (46 decks)
63. Gwaihir the Windlord - Under (354 decks)
64. Prince Imrahil the Fair - Under (152 decks)
65. Gríma, Saruman's Footman - Under (333 decks)
66. Sharkey, Tyrant of the Shire - Under (67 decks)
67. The Mouth of Sauron - Under (109 decks)
68. Mauhúr, Uruk-hai Captain - Under (286 decks)
69. The Balrog, Flame of Udûn - Under (21 decks)
70. The Balrog of Moria - Under (24 decks)
71. Uglúk of the White Hand - Under (213 decks)
72. Strider, Ranger of the North - Under (79 decks)
73. Arwen, Mortal Queen - Under (442 decks)
74. Butterbur, Bree Innkeeper - Under (31 decks)
75. Farmer Cotton - Under (342 decks)
76. Frodo Baggins - Under (169 decks)
77. Denethor, Ruling Steward - Under (146 decks)
78. Bilbo, Retired Burglar - Under (337 decks)
79. Denethor, Stone Seer - Under (23 decks)
80. Old Man Willow - Under (141 decks)
81. Merry, Esquire of Rohan - Under (157 cards)
82. Théoden, King of Rohan - Under (466 decks)
83. Arwen Undómiel - Under (445 decks)
84. Erestor of the Council - Under (231 decks)
85. Legolas, Counter of Kills - Under (161 decks)

Incorrect Picks (34)

1. Goldberry, River-Daughter - Over Under (475 decks)
2. Gwaihir, Greatest of the Eagles - Over Under (98 decks)
3. The Gaffer - Over Under (475 decks)
4. Ioreth of the Healing House - Over Under (128 decks)
5. Gollum, Obsessed Stalker - Over Under (1056 decks)
6. Gollum, Scheming Guide - Over Under (237 decks)
7. Witch-king of Angmar - Over Under (634 decks)
8. Glóin, Dwarf Emissary - Over Under (120 decks)
9. Galadriel, Gift-Giver - Over Under (36 decks)
10. Peregrin Took - Over Under (280 decks)
11. Radagast the Brown - Over Under (588 decks)
12. Boromir, Gondor's Hope - Over Under (107 decks)
13. Faramir, Prince of Ithilien - Over Under (459 decks)
14. Faramir, Steward of Gondor - Over Under (241 decks)
15. Pippin, Guard of the Citadel - Over Under (79 decks)
16. Sauron, the Lidless Eye - Over Under (310 decks)
17. Shagrat, Loot Bearer - Over Under (568 decks)
18. Gimli, Mournful Avenger - Over Under (592 decks)
19. Aragorn and Arwen, Wed - Over Under (489 decks)
20. Aragorn, Company Leader - Over Under (161 decks)
21. Treebeard, Gracious Host - Over Under (1123 decks)
22. Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff - Over Under (913 decks)
23. Éomer, King of Rohan - Over Under (306 decks)
24. Éowyn, Fearless Knight - Over Under (185 decks)
25. Shadowfax, Lord of Horses - Over Under (958 decks)
26. Elrond of the White Council - Over Under (412 decks)
27. Gandalf, Westward Voyager - Over Under (625 decks)
28. Radagast, Wizard of Wilds - Over Under (445 decks)
29. The Watcher in the Water - Under Over (1,293 decks)
30. Frodo, Sauron's Bane - Under Over (2,698 decks)
31. Sméagol, Helpful Guide - Under Over (4,321 decks)
32. Elrond, Master of Healing - Under Over (1,547 decks)
33. Galadriel of Lothlórien - Under Over (2,839 decks)
34. Merry, Warden of Isengard + Pippin, Warden of Isengard - Under Over (2,661 decks)

My Lord of the Rings Correct Prediction Percentage: 71%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

A dip below my usual average, and a slight decline on the upward trajectory of MOM: The Aftermath, yet not a complete disaster. I've done my part. Now it's up to Post Malone to do his and cast The One Ring into the fires from whence it came. We're all counting on you, Post.

Read more:

The Over/Under - Predicting the Popularity of Lord of the Rings Commanders

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Set Review - Black

Kyle Massa

Kyle A. Massa is a writer and avid Magic player living somewhere in upstate New York with his wife, their daughter, and three wild animals. His current favorite card is Flubs, the Fool. Kyle can be found on Twitter @mindofkyleam.